CHINA STEPS UP ITS NAVY BUILDUP

In addition to the busy testing of its aircraft carrier, trial operation of its satellite GPS system, and launching of its third 071 landing platform dock (LPD) in September 2011, China recently launched its fourth 071 LPD during its Chinese Lunar New Year Festival according to Hong Kong’s “Mingpao” newspaper.

071 LPD is a 20,000-ton amphibious transport dock similar to the US-built San Antonio-class LPD. With a range of 6,000 nmi (11,000 km) and a capacity to carry 500-800 troops, 15-20 armored vehicles and 6 helicopters, it will be quite useful if China has to solve South China Sea disputes by force.

In July 2010, China reacted angrily at statements concerning South China Sea disputes by US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton during an Asean security gathering. It began to quicken the development of its navy. Since it decided to counter military threat with military strength, it responded to President Obama’s high-profile announcement of America’s return to Asia last year with a Xinhua comment entitled “Constructive US role in Asia-Pacific welcome” and reiteration of its statement that China’s peaceful rise constitutes no threat at all to America.

“Sun Tzu” begins its teachings by saying: “The art of war is an art of deception. Hence, one shall make his enemy believe that he is unable to fight when he is able to and that he has no desire to fight when he is going to.” Having followed the teachings in “Sun Tzu” for over 2,000 years, China believes that America’s activities in providing arms to and holding joint military drills with China’s border dispute opponents are aimed at containing China and that America’s statements to the contrary are but deception.

China launched its first 071 LPD in December 2006 and its second 071 LPD 4 years later in November 2010, but it launched the third 10 months later and the fourth five months after the third. Why was the haste, especially the haste in launching one during the Chinese Lunar New Year Festival? Because China is conducting an arms race with America in earnest. It now wants to catch up with and surpass America in military strength as soon as possible because it believes that America wants to bully it.

There is something quite similar between the China now and the Germany after World War I. German people suffered greatly when German economy collapsed due to the heavy indemnity imposed on it after it lost World War I. Chinese people suffered greatly when Britain forced it to accept import of opium after China was defeated by Britain. The misery lasted for over a century afterwards as China was bullied by various foreign powers and finally invaded by Japan for eight years. Hitler became popular as German people wanted revenge, but Chinese people do not want revenge. They want to put an end to its century-long history of being bullied by foreign powers.

Does America want to bully China? Certainly not. America is uncertain whether China’s rise will be a threat to its security and interest and world peace or beneficial to the world. It switched its strategic priority to China merely for the purpose that it can adopt preemptive action in case China turns out to be a threat. However, this shows America’s dire lack of understanding of China.

First, America is ignorant of Chinese people’s sensitiveness to bully by any foreign power. Its deviation from its traditional attitude of avoiding being involved in border disputes between other countries gives Chinese people the impression that it is playing off China’s neighbors against China in order to profit from the border disputes. Chinese people have begun to regard America as their enemy.

Second, it lacks basic knowledge about Chinese history, which is a history of dynasties. Usually, a major dynasty remained prosperous for about one century after its establishment. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) Dynasty has been established for only three decades since Hua Guofeng, the successor of Mao Dynasty, was dethroned; therefore, there will be at least several more decades of prosperity in the future for China. People kept predicting hard landing of Chinese economy, but it has never occurred because Chinese leader and his talented assistants with moral integrity are too wise and clever to allow it to occur.

People believe that it is safe to predict China’s tremendous growth cannot last for more that 30 years because Japan’s rapid growth lasted for only 30 years in the past. However the figure 30 has no magic force for China as China is an entirely different country.

My greatest worry is that a despot like Mao may be selected as a successor to the core of the collective leadership (paramount leader) in China’s current system of succession. When such a despot comes to power, he may exploit the enmity among Chinese people to confront America when China has grown stronger than America. Such confrontation may have disastrous consequence to China and the world but in China’s political system, no one can stop the despot.

Perhaps, America is ignorant about Sun Tzu’s art of deception and believes that China really welcomes America’s return to Asia to interfere in the border disputes. Perhaps, it does not believe that China will grow stronger than it. Perhaps, it is not aware of the enmity it has roused among Chinese people. Otherwise, it would not have declared its plan to reduce its military budget and give up its goal of being able to successfully fight two major regional wars when China is making every effort to surpass it in military strength.

In my article “China’s Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”, I mentioned China’s plan to establish an Asian community similar to the EU. I believe that the prospects of being benefited from China’s huge market will help China solve border disputes peacefully. If China adopts a win-win policy in dealing with potential members of the community, Asia may become the most prosperous region in the world.

With America’s economic power, before China has established its status as the centre of Asia, America may begin to establish an Asian-Pacific community consisting of all the potential members of the Asian community and other Pacific countries and regions. As China will also be benefited by the community, it may take an active part and become America’s mutually beneficial partner. Why does America not choose this alternative? Perhaps, due to America’s long experience of Cold War, it has got used to solving problems by force or military superiority.

Chan Kai Yee is the author of “Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements: The Silent Peaceful Coup D’état In China…”