The Hindu: India Will Surpass China with Faster Growth


Mil.huanqiu.com says in its report today that according to The Hindu’s report on April 29, India is expected to achieve a growth rate of 8%, faster than China. If it conducts further reform and achieves steady faster growth rate, it will certainly surpass China.

China is not afraid of India surpassing it though it has border dispute with India. Xi Jinping provided India with financial assistance for its economic growth when he visited India last year.

Only the US is afraid of another country surpassing it and is even willing to harm itself by harming China as pointed out in my post “Is US So Desperate as to Harm Itself in Order to Harm China?” yesterday.

However, I pointed out in my previous post that US problems lie in its declining economic strength instead of China’s rise to contend with it for world leadership. China is rising but so are other countries. An alliance of two or a few rising countries may put an end to US world leadership.

I have to quote US former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson once more:

You (Americans) should be less worried about whether China will overtake us than what we’re going to do [in the United States]. Because if we do the things we need to do to get our house in order and fix our economic problems and restore our economy, we’re going to be the preeminent power for a long time. And if we don’t, we won’t.

Source: mil.huanqiu.com “Indian media: Indian economic growth will steadily surpass China: Disparity will keep on narrowing” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)


15 Comments on “The Hindu: India Will Surpass China with Faster Growth”

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  3. 301.tl says:

    Fantastic post but I was wanting to know if you could write a litte more on this topic?
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  4. Joseph says:

    If India is the US ace card in Asia, then the American should be very worried. One significant player that everyone forget is Indonesia. Unlike resource-poor India, Indonesia is rich in resources. As a former US-hegemony state, Indonesia was insignificant with it resources untapped in the past. Now that Indonesian leader has new direction to make use of its resources, Indonesia can easily surpass India. And unlike its predecessors, the Indonesian new government has shown little interest to cooperate with the American.

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  5. Joseph says:

    Singapore’s charismatic leader, the late Lee Kwan Yew worked closely with Chinese and Indian government. He made many calculated prediction about Asia according to his observations and analysis. So far, all but one of his predictions had come true. The one that’s he admitted to be wrong, was that India will equal or surpass China by 2015. In 2005 he revised his prediction about India. He said that despite having potential, India was all talk and no significant actions. Therefore unless the Indian change their mindset for the better, India will never surpass China.

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    • James says:

      Indians by and large are “talkers” rather than doers. They over promise but under deliver. It’s not nice to say it cause this upsets our Indian friends. But it’s a fact. The sooner this is acknowledged and fixed, the quicker our Indian friends can get on with nation building.

      The incessant Indian media comparing themselves with China to being the next superpower is so unnecessary. Both India and China are emerging powers and there is so much that they could co-operate to rid themselves of western hegemony. But India’s brief war with China in 1962 have left it blind sighted with the political calculus always with that incident in the background. Make peace with China like China had made peace with Russia. China gave up a large part of it Northern Territory to have a stable northern border. China and Russia is now reaping the dividends of jointly developing the vast Far East.

      India should learn from its 2 northern neighbours. I’m sorry if I have upset some of our Indian friends.

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      • George says:

        I would like to think that one only need to apologize for being insencire. We have professionals for when insincerity and outright lies are deemed necessary… They are called politicians and diplomats.

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  6. […] The Hindu: Indian Will Surpass China with Faster Growth (tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com) […]

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  7. ddude1234 says:

    “US is afraid of another country surpassing it”

    US is afraid of China surpassing it, but it will welcome India’s rise. US soft power in India should not be underestimated. US and India share political systems and US enjoys popular support among the Indian population and media. The US-India-Japan alliance will effectively contain China. As India grows faster than China, ASEAN countries (particularly Philippines and Vietnam) will favor economic ties and trade with India to reduce their dependence on China. India will benefit hugely due to technology transfer from US and Japan.

    Rising unemployment, slowing economy and discontent in autonomous and special administrative regions (fueled by increasing social unrest in HK and Taiwan) will ensure China’s collapse. China, Russia and Eurasian economic union have increased cooperation. However, as president Obama rightly pointed out – “Russia does not make anything… its economy is in tatters”. In the near future, China and Russia will be left without any friends in Asia or Europe.

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    • chankaiyee2 says:

      Perhaps, you have not read Obama’s speech on the US remaining world leader for 100 years, let alone lots of US scholars and journalists on that topic. Try to be better informed.

      By the way, do not be self-contradictory by stating US being afraid of China surpassing it and China collapsing soon. If China will soon collapse, why shall the US be afraid of it surpassing the US.

      Perhaps, your description of China collapsing is but wishful thinking. Otherwise, why have top US stratests made so much study about the way to deal with the issue?

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      • ddude1234 says:

        I have in fact listened to Obama’s speech. I should express my thoughts more carefully:

        I agree that US is afraid of any country surpassing it. However, currently only China is capable of such a feat. Therefore, US will contain China and welcome India’s rise. In the future, if India gets too powerful, US will try to contain India as well.

        I should clarify that the coming collapse in China is my personal opinion. Many people, including scholars in the US and people more qualified to talk about this than i am, will disagree. I was trying to point out that China will not collapse by itself. China will collapse if India gets stronger and the US-India-Japan alliance takes shape in the near future (perhaps 15-20 years from now).

        If China can abandon/resolve its territorial disputes, build confidence in population residing in its ASEAN partners, isolate Taiwan and gain trust from people in autonomous and special regions, while pursuing vigorous economic reform to keep unemployment at bay, this collapse will never happen. China cannot survive on its own, it needs more all-weather iron friends in Asia-Pacific!

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    • James says:

      Your comments are rather amateurish. India surpassing China? Perhaps. Only after Indians can effective deal with their multiple problem of languages, caste system, religious divide, chronic corruption, gridlock state rights and mindless bureaucracy can they surpass China.

      Indians cannot even achieve a basic level of personal hygiene. Millions of rural Indians defecatiate in the open resulting in lost of productivity due to illness. Fix this basic problem before you can call your country a raising power.

      Learn some basic economics. 8% growth in India GDP is much less than a 7% growth of a Chinese economy 3-4 times the size.

      Russia makes nothing? You must be stupid listening to Obama the Bozo. Russia builts jet fighters that India buys. Ever heard of the S-300, S-400 and the latest S-500 missile defence system that NATO is so petrified about. No? Then go back to school.

      Mindless dribble……..

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      • ddude1234 says:

        Clearly you have not visited India recently. The problems you mentioned are still present, but they are not as prevalent as you think. The Modi government is cutting red tape, providing basic banking and sanitary facilities to rural areas, launching the ‘Clean India’ and ‘Make in India’ campaigns, building infrastructure, etc.

        As for basic economics, you are mathematically correct. However, most economists seriously doubt that China is growing at 7%. The official government numbers are inflated. Many economists suggest that China is actually growing at 4%-5% based on electricity consumption, freight volume, new orders, etc. Even Premier Li prefers to consult his Keqiang Index because the official figures cannot be trusted. Indian growth should soon reach double digits, and even though it may take a decade or two, India can surpass China unless China doubles down on reforms.

        I am aware of Russian prowess in constructing missile defense systems like S-500 and fighters like Su-35. But I doubt that the general population in Russia benefits from these. If Russia has talent to construct advanced technology, perhaps it would be better spent creating the next Google, Apple or Alibaba?

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    • George says:

      Despite all your wishful thinking and China bashing, your sons and descendentes will benefit from China’s (and Asia) ascendancy. So go ahead and bash it away for whatever petty motives, it won’t make any difference.

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