An Asia without US! China and Russia are winning over Japan for thatPosted: May 1, 2016
When China’s Xi Jinping made great efforts to win over Russia as its ally to counter the US after US pivot to Asia, Russia though responded favorably but was making great efforts to improve ties with Japan because Russia is afraid that China may become a threat when it grows too strong. A Russian-Japanese alliance may be strong enough to counter China.
Chinese leaders have been clever enough to make Russia believe that China will be Russia’s friend instead of threat and has thus gradually built mutual trust with Russia.
The Chinese-Russian alliance have certainly been helped by the US due to US efforts to exclude Russia from Ukraine and the Middle East and interference with China’s disputes with its neighbors in the South China Sea. Japan’s participation in US sanctions against Russia has frustrated Russian President Putin’s efforts to improve ties with Japan.
Now, China and Russia have established a de facto Cold War camp against the US and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) controlled by China and Russia has now taken South Asia in addition to Central Asia as both India and Pakistan have joined SCO.
For the Chinese-Russian Cold War camp, its priority now is to take East Asia, i.e. Japan and South Korea. If it succeeds in doing so, the United States will be driven out of Asia.
For South Korea, it is very easy. If neither China nor Russia supports North Korea, North Korea’s Kim Dynasty will not be able to survive stringent sanctions initiated by the US. If Kim Dynasty has collapsed, South Korea will easily annex North Korea. Then there is no need for South Korea to depend on the US to resist the threat from North Korea.
For Japan, China can provide Japan with its huge market. The large number of Chinese tourists who traveled to Japan each year alone is attractive enough, let alone the ever growing Chinese middle class who covet Japanese quality goods with advanced technology. The US is the only formidable competitor with Japan for Chinese market of such goods; therefore, Japan will be greatly benefited if the US is driven out of the Chinese market.
Japan is now close to the US because of its fear of the rising China that may retaliate what it suffered from Japanese invasion in the past. China has to let bygone be bygone and try hard to make Japan believe it has no intention to be Japan’s enemy. Building up mutual trust is difficult, but Chinese leaders, if wise, shall make long-term great efforts to win Japan’s trust.
Judging by Reuters report “China, Japan more upbeat on ties but challenges remain” about Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s warm reception of Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, Chinese leaders are making efforts in that direction.
Russia on the other hand can offer Japan the opportunity to take part in Russia’s development of Siberia where there are rich natural resources indispensable for Japan. Russian President Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Abe are now making efforts to resume their negotiations to improve ties.
Neither, Japan, India, Korea nor Russia has to rely on the US for their security in Asia in the face of a rising China. If China has become a threat, Russia, Japan, India and Korea combined are strong enough to counter China. None of them needs to rely on the US.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters report, full text of which can be viewed at http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-japan-idUSKCN0XR02H