Trump a Shrewd Businessman, China’s Xi Not Less Shrewd


A file picture of a PLA Su-30 fighter and an H-6K bomber taking part in a drill in the Western Pacific in September. Photo: Xinhua

A file picture of a PLA Su-30 fighter and an H-6K bomber taking part in a drill in the Western Pacific in September. Photo: Xinhua

Trump, as a businessman, knows how to make profit so that he has been able to build up his enormous empire.

What does he want as US president then?

Some analysts believe that his hardline policies may give rise to World War III.

Why?

Does he want his commercial buildings and hotels destroyed by nuclear bombs?

His speeches may be self-contradicting sometimes, but not his goals to become US president: He wants the US to gain in order to make its economy prosper. If US economy prospers, so will his business empire along with it.

Some analysts are so stupid as to think that Trump will play some dirty secret tricks to benefit his empire. If so, Trump will be bankrupt politically. Will he be so stupid?

His open trick to make the US prosper for the benefit of his business empire is to enable the US to benefit from its diplomacy.

How?

He uses his hardline rhetoric to cause tension in the world.

In Europe, he praises Putin and thus encourages Putin to be more aggressive so that Europe wants better US protection. The US will gain in having Europe to pay more for the protection or buy more US advanced weapons for self-protection.

In Asia, he will reverse Obama’s stupid policies of containing China.

Obama’s pivot to Asia hurts the US instead of benefiting it. Economically, the US has to make concessions to have TPP accepted by other members in order to contain China. Hurting oneself to hurt one’s competitors. That is not a wise businessman’s way. A wise businessman hurts his competitors in order to benefit himself.

It is sure that TPP may hurt the US but whether it may hurt China remains a question as China is carrying out substantial reform to make its economy adapt to TPP.

Obama’s efforts to contain China by intervention with China’s disputes with its neighbors in the South China Sea have entirely failed as US threat has caused China to build seven artificial islands there to entirely remove the threat of US attack of China from the South China Sea.

In fact, tension in the South China Sea may not cause countries there to pay for US protection or buy US weapons. ASEAN will not seek US protection for fear of upsetting China as it is now greatly benefited by better relations with China. US only ally there the Philippines may want better US protection and US weapons but it is too poor to be able to pay for that.

Trump does not want to contain China. On the contrary, he want the US to have substantial gains from China’s vast market. He wants China to make trade concessions for better US access to Chinese market.

For that, he needs tension in East Asia. His telephone call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen was precisely aimed at that. He will try to sell more weapons to Taiwan and support Japan in its disputes with China to cause China to make trade concessions.

On the other hand, he appoints a pro-China politician as US ambassador to China for better economic ties with China. That will be his carrot and stick policies toward China.

By so doing, he will not only gain concessions from China but also make Japan and South Korea pay more for US protection and make them and Taiwan buy more US weapons.

If Trump succeeds in both Europe and Asia, he will be able to get substantial gains for his country so that he will be sure to win the next presidential election for a second term.

China’s Xi Jinping is not less shrewd. SCMP says in its report “PLA will ‘step up flights near Taiwan’ to pressure Tsai after Trump phone call” today, “Beijing wants to keep up the pressure on the island amid fears the US may soften its stance on its policy that Taiwan is part of one China”. Taiwan is Xi’s priority now. He has to cause Taiwan’s pro-independence president Tsia Ing-wen to lose to the pro-Beijing KMT in the next Taiwan presidential election.

SCMP says “China’s military has already flown a series of flights close to the island in recent months as it tries to ratchet up pressure on Taiwan’s independence-leaning government.” Trump’s support for Tsai will give Xi the excuse to send more warplanes to threaten Taiwan.

That will force Taiwan to incur huge costs to buy US weapons at the expense of its economic growth. Xi, on the other hand, will contain Taiwan economically by reducing import of Taiwanese products and Mainland tourists to Taiwan. Tsai’s economic failure will cause her to lose the next election.

There is always the military alternative for Xi to take Taiwan by force, but that will be Xi’s last resort. He certainly does not want to risk a war with the US. Even if the US does not intervene, he will have difficulties in dealing with the aftermath of the war.

Having a pro-Beijing Taiwan government is a much better choice for him. For that he need tension in Taiwan Strait. The military threat of Xi’s takeover of Taiwan by force will aggravate Taiwan’s economic difficulties as no one will invest in Taiwan under the threat. Trump will help Xi in creating the tension.

Article by Chan Kai Yee.

Full text of SCMP’s report mentioned in the article can be found at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2052513/pla-will-step-flights-near-taiwan-after-trump-tsai-call


4 Comments on “Trump a Shrewd Businessman, China’s Xi Not Less Shrewd”

  1. EASTERN LOOKING GLASS says:

    MR TRUMP’S JOURNEY

    Lest it be forgotten, the U.S. is essentially a bankrupt country. Its treasury is empty. Only moths left and plenty of debts in the form of treasury bills from foreign governments and American citizens and corporations.

    It is now USD 19 trillion in debt. That is, USD 19,000,000,000,000! How much is the interest per year? A normal 8 or 12 digit calculator cannot calculate that but rest assure, it IS phenomenal. Just servicing the interest alone leaves nothing much left of its U.S. tax revenue.

    How much more can they borrow without experiencing a cashflow crisis?

    No cashflow crisis? How do they manage that? Oh, they MANIPULATE their currency by printing voluminous quantity of the US dollar … by the thousands of billions or trillions. And the the US dollar does not sink to zero value? How is that possible? What with no gold to back it?

    And the rest of the world continue to accept the US dollar in good faith as a trustworthy promissory note? Astonishing! Tell me, isn’t that RIGGING big time? And the accusation is made that Beijing manipulates the Yuan’s value?

    My word, Mr Trump! That lie or BS is so old and passe already and even Obama, that Liar-in-Chief and hypocrite extraordinaire’ himself, has stopped using that misinformation as its credibility has its bottom knocked out already. Like the boy who yelled “wolf”, nobody believes him BUT, surprises of surprises, here we have a Mr Trump trumpeting the same old BS! Oh my, Mr Trump, I expected more from you.

    When you are bankrupt and yet remains a going concern mainly by abusing the monetary – read making money from thin air – system, you know you are actually living in an unreal world, a ponzi scheme world, a world where you are just postphoning the eventual inevitable catastrophic collapse of your economic-financial system. Including perhaps your social-political structure, part of which is already happening if you continue the Establishment’s way.

    Moreover, when you are bankrupt, you know you have very, very little cards to play with. You OWE EVERYONE money. The creditors therefore call the shots, NOT you. And China happens to be one of your biggest foreign creditors. So you should be nice.

    Remember, anything you do, China/ Beijing can counter, and in a more drastic form. If you become more protectionist and levy higher import tariffs, China can do likewise. If you think your Congress can pass a law to get all your creditors get a haircut, action can be taken against your assets here in China. Your American assets can be nationalized to pay for your unilateral piracy. There are terms and conditions in the S & P contract to protect the interests of both parties. You can’t nilly-willy do as you like.

    Otherwise, we WILL demand you take a haircut like the one imposed on Greece : Downsize your number of public services employees, reduce your social benefits, your public development spending including your very sizeable armed forces expenditure by closing many of your overseas military bases for eg, cut down the exorbitant salaries and remuneration benefits and perks paid to your senior government officials – uniformed or non uniformed, etc., etc.

    Oh, you have a big stick and you will try to defy your creditors? You will use your military to threaten us? Well maybe that is all left you can do – behave like a thug and a pirate and refuse to pay up yet have the temerity to accuse your creditor of “currency manipulation” and selectively “unlawfully” creating islands from the seas in their domain – disturbing no one – unlike invasive Amerikan military bases occupying land in sovereign countries. Who’s the aggressor here?

    So, if your word and international law is of no value, you will go to war and subdue if not pacify or colonize your creditors?

    Well, I think you WILL have a fight on your hand. You have NO idea how many warheads we have. For sure, surface dwelling Americans will cease to exist the minute you press that button on your briefcase. It WILL be a war you CANNOT win. For sure, precious white lives WILL be lost. To “inferior” colored races.

    So, what will it be, Mr Trump? Continue the objectionable, antagonistic smoke and mirror games originated by that lying Obama and Hillary Rodham while threatening and insulting the Chinese simultaneously yet expecting your investors in China to continue to make make huge obscene profits Chinese resources without hindrance? That you can continue to behave like an uncivilized, condescending, colonizing ingrate in and towards the Chinese?

    Or keep quiet, behave yourself, pay up and be nice?

    You are not exactly far from being another Greece as well you know it. You know that you are currently in a position of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t”. Like your idea of increasing interest rates.

    You have inherited a VERY VERY difficult economic/financial situation from that “worst-ever-American president” Obama.

    Greatness demands forbearance and statesmanship. Your journey of a thousand “li” has started. We hope you however, succeed. If that IS your aim.

    Like

  2. Joseph says:

    What Donald Trump has done is a typical western negotiating tactic for those who have no card in his sleeve. So he is trying to create one. A fake or useless card is better than no card at all. If he’s lucky, his opponent will believe his bluff. He is trying to make that famous ‘poker trick’ bluff that the Westerners are fond of and love to boast. He is a casino owner after all. But he should know that there are reason why the Chinese do not favor the lame poker. It’s just too predictable. The Chinese plays more sophisticated mahjong rather than poker. And Chinese are known as notorious adept gamblers. So what is it gonna be? Notorious gamblers vs a failed casino owner. Still, Donald Trump approaches the Chinese like we are a bunch of Chinese American, who could be pressured and manipulated to his wimp. Just like Chinese American he would hope that China would crack and cede in the impression that there’s no other choice for them. Obama tried to crack China with his legal trainings in the hope that China would yield to American legal nightmare that Chinese Americans are often subjected to accept, and failed. Now Donald Trump is trying the notorious Western business negotiation bullying tactic that American businessmen often subjected Chinese American to accept. Nothing change. Typically American. When will the American learn than non-American Chinese are not the poorly educated Chinese American? And I hoped that Hillary Clinton could be the next US president as she would bring America down quicker. It turns out that Donald Trump is as dumb as her. Businessman with adept business negotiation skill? Is that it? His negotiation ‘tactics’ are clearly visible. Donald Trump may be formidable to deal with American banks in American environment, but in dealing with China, he has to leave his predictable American negotiating environment. For one, those American banks he made deal with, had everything to lose in rejecting his negotiation proposal. China, on the other hand, has nothing to lose in negotiating with Donald Trump. China has it all, debt-free economic superiority, ASEAN-backed regional supremacy, and reputation for sincerity and not a deal breaker. Good or bad, TPP is an American initiative. Donald Trump throws it to the ditch just like that only because he doesn’t like it. If Donald Trump is a four-years president, the American is going to break deals in four years. If he is an eight-years president, the American is going to break deals in eight years. In business, especially in Asia, trust is paramount. More than ever, who is going to trust the American now?

    Like

  3. Steve says:

    The US will have problems on all five fronts – the Baltic states against Russia, declining influence in the Middle East, no support from ASEAN in the SCS, the Korean peninsula and the ECS. The US cannot bring jobs back to America. LatAm nations are looking into the Asian Pacific region for survival. The expertise is now with China and even Chinese manufacturing companies are setting up shops in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, soon in the Philippines including strengthening trade with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Malaysia. With the opening of Gwadar Port, even the Russians are about to join into this immensely strategic maritime location to the Middle east as part of OBOR.

    The US can only boost weapons sales, but can no longer wage war against ‘rogue states’ acting contrary to US policies. The US world vision is getting smaller. As long as China do not fire the first shot, US lose China wins. The US has financial problems in building bigger warships for it’s navy. China is steaming ahead with new constructions of its blue water navy warships like 052D,
    055s, etc and investing heavily in stealth planes.

    With over $19 trillion debt, the US is sinking and cannot afford a war even on a scale of Iraq war, let alone a war with a combined Russia, China and Iran.?

    Like

  4. Fre Okin says:

    Trump is about to make fools of ‘allies’ Taiwan and Japan.He smell $$$ from these foolish allies. Buy more US military hardware to enrich US companies and also create more jobs.

    Everytime they seek US security assurance, Trump will demand they cough out more money!

    Like


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