No Chances of the US and China Going to War


On March 17, I reblogged Newsweek’s article “What Are the Chances of the U.S. and China Going to War?” by David G. Gompert, which regards China’s activities in the South China Sea as the major cause of conflict that may cause the US and China going to war. In addition, the US is unhappy about China’s trade policy, however, the article says, “The stakes are not high enough, and the disputes not severe enough, to prompt leaders of either country to start a conflict outright.”

The article seems ignorant of US desire to contain China in order to prevent China from growing into its rival for world leadership. Obama’s pivot to Asia precisely aims at that and he seemed quite popular at home for that pivot militarily though economically his TPP to contain China met quite loud opposition as the US may suffer instead of benefit from TPP.

Therefore, we shall be very clear that national interests are the major factor that drives a nation into war.

A nation starts a war for gains; therefore, it will not do so if there are no prospects of victory as without victory, the nation will only suffer losses instead of obtaining gains.

China certainly will not start a war with the US as there are simply no prospects for China to win the war. As China seeks no world hegemony, it gains nothing in winning a war with the US but will be benefited from win-win cooperation with the US.

So will the US as if it attacks China. Though its military is anxious to attack China to prevent it from growing into a rival to US world hegemony, its aircraft carriers do not have enough fire power to deal with Chinese air force and air defense (see CIMSEC’s article “The Age of the Strike Carrier is Over” by LT X at http://cimsec.org/age-strike-carrier/30906 and National Interest’s article “5 Ways Russia and China Could Sink America’s Aircraft Carriers” by Robert Farley at )

The US has to wait till it has B-21 bombers to attack China, but we do not know whether China has developed any weapons to deal with B-21 by that time. If China has, the US has to wait for its further new weapons. With the US declining and China rising, the US does not seem to have a bright future to win a war with China; therefore, the chances of war between the US and China are small and will be increasingly smaller in the future.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Newsweek, CIMSEC and National Interest’s articles, full text of which can be viewed respectively at http://europe.newsweek.com/what-chance-us-and-china-going-war-567717?rm=eu, http://cimsec.org/age-strike-carrier/30906 and http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/5-ways-russia-china-could-sink-americas-aircraft-carriers-19811.

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7 Comments on “No Chances of the US and China Going to War”

  1. EASTERN LOOKING GLASS says:

    Mr Durterte understands that unless the U.S. is removed from East Asia, all East Asian countries will remain threatened and blackmailed by Washington. Unless the Amerikan military bases are closed, East Asian countries will stay in effect in a colonial vassal-master relationship vis-a-vis the U.S.

    It is apparent Hanoi understands this also. Of what good is it to try and chase China out of the islands claimed by U.S.? It will only caused “more of the same”; That is, a strutting imperialist arrogant Amerika in East Asia. Surely Hanoi and the Vietnamese are not that irrational to forget so quickly the vile massacre of 5-6 million Vietnamese and the destruction and toxication of their environment by the banned “orange” chemicals sprayed all over Vietnam by that “butcher of Asia” Amerika?

    Indonesia meanwhile whose country saw more than half a million of its citizens massacred on instructions of the detestable CIA by the Suharto’s regime, is keeping its distance as it is now aware of what Washington “the butcher” had wrought to their country. It is not in Amerika’s camp nor in Australia especially if Australia’ foreign policy is dictated by that insane neocon foreign minister Julie Bishop.

    Indeed if South Korea and Seoul makes a clear and irrevocable stand against colonial master Washington, bearing in mind Washington’s butchery against Koreans during the Korean war by indiscriminate bombings against civilian Koreans killing 8-9 million Koreans or 20% of its population by that General Curtis LeMay, the whittling of Amerika’s influence will continue. And if South and North Korea joins the SCO, all that remains is only Japan.

    It has corrected quoted that Japan is unlikely to fight a war in its own backyard. Amerika and Washjngton has proven it is not what it proclaims itself to be. Once the wool has sufficiently dropped from Japanese’s eye, and a new prime minister elected who is not a lap dog of Washington,and who together with the rest of East Asian countries decides to join the SCO, Washington may do well to withdraw its mi.itary bases from East Asia and let a new era in East Asia begins.

    If leaders like Mr Putin and Mr Xi continues to lead, then the Eurasian continent, will see a new period of peace and prosperity.

    The seven hundred billion dollar question is – “How sane and rational are the Amerikans in charge in Washington?”

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    • EASTERN LOOKING GLASS says:

      Errata : “t is apparent Hanoi understands this also. Of what good is it to try and chase China out of the islands claimed by U.S.?” should read “t is apparent Hanoi understands this also. Of what good is it to try and chase China out of the islands claimed by Vietnam?”

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  2. Simon says:

    You said Obama’s “pivot to Asia” is popular at home is incorrect. It may satisfy the few hawks and benefit defence companies but ordinary Americans could not care less about the SCS. You see people potesting in Washington near the Whitehouse every day carrying placards about issues such as health care, racial discrimination, poverty and even very trivial things but no one protest about China’s activities in SCS. I think you are being influenced by “fake news” initiated by hawkish western media.
    You hear a lot in western media about the $5 trillion trade that passes through the SCS being put at risk by China’s enforcement in the SCS, that is “fake news”. You don’t hear $4 trillion dollar or 80% of that trade goes in and out of China, somehow putting that into perspective China would have the legal right to claim 80% of the SCS which is close to what it claims. Western media are going to tell you that Vietnam, Phillipines, Malaysia or Brunei have rights to claim massive portion of the SCS but won’t tell you that trade with all of these countries combined that goes through SCS don’t even amount to 5% of the $5 trillion that passes through it. So the idea of the amount of trade that passes through SCS should be of nobody’s interest but China, any escalation of tension there is from other countries threatening Chinese interest more than anyone else.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Joseph says:

    Actually, there is a good chance that China and America going to war. While the American has no good reason to go to war with China other that verbal sabre-rattling. China will go to war with America if it’s overseas interests are threatened. And the war will be fought not in the SCS region, but somewhere else, perhaps American backyards of sphere of influence such as Africa, Western Europe, Middle East, Indian Ocean, South Pacific or Caribbean and American continent, or even USA itself, which makes mobile power projections very important to China. Expensive aircraft carriers may be obsolete for cash-strapped American, but it is very crucial for China’s power projection. The American knows well that they cannot win against China on SCS right now, not alone anyway. So their best bet is if China made the pre-emptive strike where the American can play victim and gains the support of sympathetic ally, ones with bitter grudges with China such as Vietnam and Japan where the American can galvanized blind supports. That’s why the American is actively provoking these countries into disputes with China. In the past several years, the American would provoke China by sending ships to the SCS to challenge China’s claim on the SCS. However, rather than provoking China and gain sympathies of China’s so-called ‘enemies’, the American had only provoking the contesting countries, as FONOP would only mean that the American would only not recognize China’s claims, but the claims of Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Philippines as well. Philippines, under Duterte’s regime, has gone further to ban all American FONOP activities which violates Philippines own claim, from its territories. Rather than gaining regional sympathies it hopes to accomplished, American expensive FONOP activities has made the region to brand the American as an acute troublemakers. While everyone acknowledge that America is still stronger than China, China obtains all the sympathies and respect for standing up against such powerful bullies, something that everyone in the region has been itching to do. In this case, the enemy of American’s enemy is my friend. So if the war does break out, no one will side with the American, perhaps not even Taiwan and Japan, simply because the war will be fought in their backyards, not in America or China. It is safer for them to stay neutral as they are closer to China’s non-carrier strikes groups. That’s why neutrality would be the only good deterrent for American-initiated war. Alone, the American is nothing but a coward.

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  4. Steve says:

    It will take a decade before the LRS B21 bomber could be fully commissioned. By then, China’s radar tracking quantum satellites, hypersonic delivery mach 10+, LRS bomber, new stealth fighters including 6 gen, nuclear submarines + nuclear carrier, hypersonic air to air missiles 6 mach plus and a newer range of destroyers and frigates will be glittering the Western Pacific, ECS and SCS. By then, the renegade province of Taiwan could be militarily unified and the DPP disbanded as a separatist group.

    A decade from now the American civil engineering society could possibly downgrade the US infrastructures from its current status of D to ungraded fail. Americans will probably witness Chinese civil engineers getting the top job of constructing new US infrastructures by engineering firms from China at a lower cost better quality. A decade could be a longtime considering the US economy may shrink further, Trump protectionism policy may be unacceptable and a new US President elected.

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  5. Fre Okin says:

    One sure way to prevent war is for China to impress upon the decision makers in Washington DC what she can do to put them into a No Escape Zone. These people need to have Fear in their lives in order to stop their adventurism.

    To this end, China must advance the WU 14 hypersonic missiles to carry conventional bombs with enough firepower and precision to scare them. Time to target probably around half hour, so they don’t have much chance to escape with a saturation attack.

    Of course China should never send them towards Washington DC as it can be mistaken as a nuclear warhead since there is no way to tell what kind is on the missile. So China need to demo a couple of WU 14 missiles to hit some remote places away from US as a warning shot. China might have to ‘borrow’ such a spot that is uninhabited from some country to make a point. Venezuela might be a good source for a remote island, much like US use Bikini atoll in the Pacific to test nukes. This is similarly to Chinese ASAT test done about 9 years ago to demo to US she can destroy her satellites. Perhaps then war won’t happen after they see China have the means to destroy the warmongers in DC by conventional means.

    China will probably have to tell US first she only fight with conventional means and it is up to US not to trigger a nuclear exchange.

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  6. Anonymous says:

    All wars were fought never for nationalism.

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