No Chances of the US and China Going to WarPosted: March 21, 2017
On March 17, I reblogged Newsweek’s article “What Are the Chances of the U.S. and China Going to War?” by David G. Gompert, which regards China’s activities in the South China Sea as the major cause of conflict that may cause the US and China going to war. In addition, the US is unhappy about China’s trade policy, however, the article says, “The stakes are not high enough, and the disputes not severe enough, to prompt leaders of either country to start a conflict outright.”
The article seems ignorant of US desire to contain China in order to prevent China from growing into its rival for world leadership. Obama’s pivot to Asia precisely aims at that and he seemed quite popular at home for that pivot militarily though economically his TPP to contain China met quite loud opposition as the US may suffer instead of benefit from TPP.
Therefore, we shall be very clear that national interests are the major factor that drives a nation into war.
A nation starts a war for gains; therefore, it will not do so if there are no prospects of victory as without victory, the nation will only suffer losses instead of obtaining gains.
China certainly will not start a war with the US as there are simply no prospects for China to win the war. As China seeks no world hegemony, it gains nothing in winning a war with the US but will be benefited from win-win cooperation with the US.
So will the US as if it attacks China. Though its military is anxious to attack China to prevent it from growing into a rival to US world hegemony, its aircraft carriers do not have enough fire power to deal with Chinese air force and air defense (see CIMSEC’s article “The Age of the Strike Carrier is Over” by LT X at http://cimsec.org/age-strike-carrier/30906 and National Interest’s article “5 Ways Russia and China Could Sink America’s Aircraft Carriers” by Robert Farley at )
The US has to wait till it has B-21 bombers to attack China, but we do not know whether China has developed any weapons to deal with B-21 by that time. If China has, the US has to wait for its further new weapons. With the US declining and China rising, the US does not seem to have a bright future to win a war with China; therefore, the chances of war between the US and China are small and will be increasingly smaller in the future.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Newsweek, CIMSEC and National Interest’s articles, full text of which can be viewed respectively at http://europe.newsweek.com/what-chance-us-and-china-going-war-567717?rm=eu, http://cimsec.org/age-strike-carrier/30906 and http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/5-ways-russia-china-could-sink-americas-aircraft-carriers-19811.