BRI for Security of China’s Trade with Middle East, Europe, Africa

SCMP’s article “China slimming down Belt and Road Initiative as new project value plunges in last 18 months, report shows” on October 10 points out the decline of the number and value of new projects of China’s Beld and Road initiative (BRI). The reasons for such decline, according to the article is the reduction of funds available for such projects and Chinese banks’ caution to lend and potential borrowers reluctance to borrow for fear of inability to repay the loans.

The analysis of the entire article is based on the theory that BRI aims at enhancing China’s geopolitical influence.

It fails to see BRI’s strategical importance for China.

As the US had fallen deep in Thucydides trap, China was facing the risk of US military attacks of cruise missiles from US attack submarines in the South China Sea so that China had to build artificial islands there to prevent such attacks.

At the same time, China was aware that its trade lifelines through the oceans might be cut off by powerful US navy. As most of its foreign trade was with the Middle East and Europe, China launched its Silk Road economic belt for land connections to those areas and 21st century maritime Silk Road for maritime connections.

BRI was launched in late 2013 while construction of the artificial islands in the South China Sea began in early 2014. The timing of those two of China’s major security projects proves that they came out from the same security strategy.

Trump’s trade war against China precisely proves Chinese leaders’ vision on China’s risks of US attacks.

BRI has established China’s land connection to Europe through Central Asia and Russia. It also facilitates China’s sourcing of oil and natural gas in Russia and Central Asia.

For China’s shipping safety, the most important BRI projects are the China-Pakistan economic corridor that provide land and sea connections between China’s northwest and the Middle East, Europe and Africa and the China-Myanmar economic corridor for China to bypass the Malacca Strait for land and sea connections between China’s southwest and the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Perhaps due to West’s misunderstanding of China’s intention for BRI, Trump has created tension with Iran to enable China to have Iran as an ally in defending its shipping from Pakistan to Europe and Africa and India’s enhancing of tension with Pakistan to facilitate the development of China-Pakistan economic corridor.

West accusations of Myanmar’s way in dealing with Rohingya refugee crisis have pushed Myanmar into China’s arms to facilitate the development of China-Myanmar economic corridor for China to bypass the Malacca Strait.

The other BRI projects facilitate China moving its labor-intensive industries to areas with cheap labor, obtaining mineral resources for its economic development and expansion of market in developing countries. China has had quite a few such projects as a beginning. It certainly has to reduce the scale of investment due to the limit to its financial resources.

The article talks about BRI setting debt traps for countries involved. In fact, those countries will not fallen into debt traps as China has no way to force them to repay their debts when they are unable to repay. Instead, it will be China to fall into the debt traps and incur serious setbacks in its economic development. China’s caution in its BRI development precisely proves its leaders’ wisdom.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s article, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3032375/china-slimming-down-belt-and-road-initiative-new-project.

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