Has China Already Won? You Bet


Enrique Dans, Senior Contributor

Aug 27, 2020,02:57pm EDT

On Tuesday, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt spoke at the Bipartisan Policy Center about artificial intelligence and global leadership, concluding that China will pretty much be running things from now on.

This is a position I have been defending for quite some time: Beijing’s approach, which we in the West consider unacceptable, has positioned China as a world leader in the technologies that will dictate the future of humanity, while the rest of the world sat back and watched or, in the case of the United States during the Trump administration, took steps backwards.

China is on its way to surpass us in many, many ways, and they’re cleverly run in a way that’s different from the way we would ever want to run. We need to take them seriously… they’re going to end up with a bigger economy, more R&D investments, better quality research, wider applications of technology, and a stronger computing infrastructure.”

The Chinese government has long asserted, repeated at Communist Party congresses, that its model is not only different, but superior, and that the time has come for China to take center stage and make a bigger contribution to humanity. From a purely strategic point of view, China’s form of government and the reinvention of state capitalism carried out by Xi Jinping has produced any number of large, decisive and top-down initiatives, which implies a much higher degree of efficiency. In Schmidt’s words:

The Chinese model is a vision of high-tech authoritarianism which is incompatible with the way America works. I’m not saluting it, I’m not endorsing it in any way, but I’m telling you to take it seriously (…) It has benefits from the standpoint of the strategic execution.”

Schmidt believes a world where China controls artificial intelligence and trade would not be a nice place for many of us, and highlights the need for a long-term, well-funded plan to counter Beijing’s hegemony by doubling R&D spending over the next five years. He adds that the way to fight China is not through a trade war, sanctions or executive orders, which is the approach taken by the Trump administration, but instead by moving faster and leaving China behind. Right now, the problem is not only that China is able to develop technology faster, more efficiently and with less resistance, but also that it is enjoying success in attracting and retaining talent.

These are issues that I’ve been discussing for a long time now, and they have a lot to do with the comments made a few days ago by Tim Wu in his article in The New York Times: China has behaved unilaterally unfairly, giving it a huge advantage in terms of leadership over the rest of the world, along with access to global markets while keeping its own out of reach.

Schmidt’s views are gaining wider traction, but the problem is that China has already won: the macroeconomic data has yet to prove it, but it has become the world’s leader in generating data to feed its algorithms, has more artificial intelligence patents, and is streets ahead in implementing cutting-edge developments. A surveillance society where resistance to planned and centralized management is impossible, a social contract accepted by much of the population in return for improved economic welfare.

As democrats, we might not like to live under such an authoritarian regime, but we might as well start accepting that to all intents and purposes, China has already won.

Source: Forbes “Has China Already Won? You Bet”

Note: This is Forbes’ article I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the article’s views.


China’s Strategy Active Defense Not Anti-access, Area Denial


Active Defense Means Attack for Defense. The strategists of active defense regard attack as the best way of defense.

Lowyinstitute.org’s article “China’s counteroffensive in the war of ideas” on February 24, 2020 shows US strategists’ entire ignorance of China’s strategy.

China’s latest Defense White Paper makes it very clear that China’s strategy is active defense but the article still regards “anti-access, area denial” as China’s military strategy and believes that China’s offensives in the war of ideas are counteroffensives that mirror “its ‘anti-access, area denial’ military strategy”.

China held two South-South Human Rights Forums in 2017 and 2019 not for counteroffensives but for spreading the human rights it advocates among the vast number of developing countries. The Beijing Declaration approved by the participants of the 2017 forum regards the rights to subsistence and development as basic human rights different to the human rights system advocated by the West.

To advocate its one-party system, China held high-level dialogue between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and political parties from around the world from November 30 to December 3, 2017.

SCMP says in its report about the dialogue that according to Xinhua, the meeting was attended by representatives from over 300 overseas political groups mostly from Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Africa, but the Republican Party in the US and Russian ruling party United Russia also sent representatives.

Xi said in his speech to the dialogue, “We do not import foreign models, and we do not export the China model, either,” and “We will not require other countries to copy what we do.”

Xinhua says in its report, “Many speakers attributed China’s success to the choice of a path based on its own characteristics and praised its standing of ‘not exporting the Chinese model.’”

That implies that China provides an example of choosing the way of development based on a country’s own characteristics instead of importing other countries’ ways, which clearly means negation of importing Western democracy.

In addition, Xi said the Chinese Communist Party would step up communications with overseas political groups and enable 15,000 of their members to visit China for inter-party exchanges in the coming five years.

China will certainly incur lots of costs in providing accommodation, travel and other treatments to the 15,000 members of overseas political groups to convince them that Western democracy is not their only choice.

The above shows that China is making offensive instead of counteroffensive in conducting its active defense—Attack is the best way of defense.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on lowyinstitute.org’s article, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-s-counteroffensive-war-ideas.


China needs strong leadership or will ‘crumble,’ policy paper says


September 27, 2019 / 12:15 PM / Updated 21 hours ago

BEIJING (Reuters) – China needs the strong, unified leadership of the Communist Party or the country will “crumble,” the government said in a policy paper released on Friday ahead of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.

China’s cabinet news office said in a white paper that the country’s success since the Communists took power 70 years ago was down to the party’s leadership.

China is huge in size, has complex national conditions, and its governance difficulties are rarely seen. Without a unified and strong leadership force, China will move toward division and crumble, bringing disaster to the world,” it said.

Chinese authorities have long justified a firm fist in dealing with problems, like the crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Beijing in 1989, as being necessary for national stability.

Strong-arm President Xi Jinping, who will headline the anniversary celebrations of the world’s second-biggest economy on Tuesday, has further tightened party rule and cracked down on those who may challenge authority since taking office in late 2012.

Xi has also overseen a military modernization program that has unnerved the region.

China does not seek to export its development model nor want to import any foreign models, seeking only peace and not “hegemony”, the policy paper said.

The Chinese people do not have it in their genes to invade others or dominate the world. In modern times, China has been bullied by the Great Powers, war and turmoil have left a deep impression with the suffering caused; China will never impose the sufferings it has been through on other peoples.”

China is marking the anniversary at a time of uncertainty for the country, which is locked in a bitter trade war with the United States and faces challenges from a slowing economy as well as anti-government protests in the Chinese territory of Hong Kong.

China will never “trade away” its core interests and not allow its security and sovereignty to be compromised, the paper said.

The threat of trade wars and the continued increase in tariffs are not conducive to solving problems,” it said, in reference to its trade disputes with Washington.

China is a mature economy with a complete industrial system, complete industrial chain, broad market space and strong economic development momentum. It will never be weakened by trade wars,” the paper added.

China is confident that it has the ability to face difficulties, turn crises into opportunities, and open up a new world.”

The United States should look rationally at China’s development, as China has no intention of challenging the United States and does not want to replace the United States, it added.

The United States cannot control China, and it is even more unlikely to stop China’s development. Curbing and suppressing other countries and transferring domestic contradictions abroad will not keep the United States strong.”

Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Gao Liangping; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan

Source: Reuters “China needs strong leadership or will ‘crumble,’ policy paper says”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


Here Comes China’s Chance to Set North Korean Model


In my post “North Korean Refugees in China” yesterday, I said:

However, Kim still has to conduct the reform and opening-up similar to China. As he has made efforts to establish his powerbase for years, he now must have the power to overcome the resistance to reform from conservatives so that there is hope for China to resume its work to set a North Korean model by helping Kim conduct reform, put an end to the famine and improve North Korean economy.

Some conservative US China watchers have sensed possible Change in China’s attitude towards North Korea. Washington Free Beacon carried an article titled “Secret Document Reveals China Covertly Offering Missiles, Increased Aid to North Korea” on a so-called top secret document of the Office of CCP Central Committee on providing economic and military aids to North Korea in order to pit Trump administration against China.

The writer of the article knows it is hard to make people believe the possibility to obtain Chinese Central authorities’ classified document. However, he is perhaps confident that what China will do related to North Korean in the future will prove the authenticity of the document though he has no evidence to prove the authenticity of the document.

Western China watchers are strong in making analysis of possible development but lack the language skill or knowledge about Chinese official documents to judge the authenticity of the document.

The writer believed the document is authentic, but he should certainly have known that central documents are always well written, there may not be the blunder of using “军事对持”for “军事对峙” in the document. Lack of language skill and historical knowledge is common among US China watchers as Chinese language is really difficult and Chinese history is too long and too well recorded in classic Chinese difficult to read. Perhaps as they prefer reading the translation to the Chinese original they fail to find that the “no.” on the fake document is not used in Central document or notice QR code required on Chinese official documents is conspicuously missing.

However, the writer is correct in his analysis of North Korea’s importance as a buffer for China, China’s fear of Kim Dynasty’s collapse and China’s support for North Korea if the US attacks it.

Now, it is the best time for China to set its North Korean model as Kim Jong-un must be realistic to see that he cannot feed his people with nuclear warheads or missiles. Since he has got the weapons he wants, he has to switch his focus onto economy to satisfy people’s demards for food and better living standards. Otherwise his Kim Dynasty will lose popular support and collapse. In order to attain that goal, Kim has to follow China’s model of reform and opening-up, for which China’s support is indispensable.

Turning poor and backward North Korea notorious of its famine into a rich and prosperous small nation will have sensational impact on the world. That is much more important for China as like China, North Korea is a socialist country. If notorious socialist North Korea can become rich and prosperous through the reform and opening-up similar to China’s, it will prove China’s success in restoring the greatness of socialism. Vietnam and Cuba will follow suite so that China will not be a lonely socialist country. It will be the leader of a group of four and perhaps more as other developing countries may follow North Korean model.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Washington Free Beacon’s article, full text of which can be viewed at http://freebeacon.com/national-security/secret-document-reveals-china-covertly-offering-missiles-increased-aid-north-korea/?utm_source=Freedom+Mail&utm_campaign=258d6bba73-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b5e6e0e9ea-258d6bba73-46069085.


Chinese Model Good for Developing Countries in Spite of West Concerns


SubChina says in its report “Is there a global backlash against China?”, “Author, veteran China journalist, and occasional SupChina contributor John Pomfret writes in the Washington Post that a ‘global backlash is brewing against the People’s Republic of China’ at exactly the same time that Beijing is expressing ‘unprecedented confidence in its economic and political model.’”

It mentions China’s trouble in the US, UK, New Zealand, Taiwan, Australia and EU that are all developed countries and region. Do these countries and region need Chinese model for lifting out of poverty and economic growth? Certainly not. Chinese model offers an alternative to Western democracy for developing countries. Western countries are a minority in the world in terms of population and area of territories. Mr. John Pomfret seems to believe that there are only Western countries in the world other than China.

As China has lifted the large majority of it poor people out of poverty and achieved fast economic growth, it is justified to be self-confident. No one is sure whether China will keep its growth for a long time to come, but at least it has grown rich and strong to be regarded by the US as a competitor. Even if its growth has slowed, China is still financially capable of lifting the remaining 50 million Chinese people out of poverty.

China has good reasons for optimism while the West has nothing to prove that its democracy can enable developing countries to achieve such fast economic growth and lift people out of poverty so quickly.

The four Asian Dragons were not Western democracies when they were achieving fast economic growth. Singapore has never been a Western democracy. Hong Kong grew rich when it was Britain’s colony without democracy while Taiwan and South Korea were both autocracies when they grew rich. They became democracies only after they have grown rich; therefore, they have not been made rich by Western democracy.

Both Chinese and Western systems have their strong points and weakness so that one has to learn from the other’s strong points. China has learnt a lot from Western democracy in industrialization, urbanization, technology, financial management, etc. It is a pity that the West willfully ignores China’s strong points and stresses China’s weaknesses to remain self-confident in spite of being surpassed by China not only in economic growth but also in fighting corruption to prevent officials and rich people from becoming privileged vested interests, providing medical and retirement insurance for almost all the people, lifting almost all people out of poverty, etc.

China is superior to the West in its self-consciousness in keeping on reform to adapt to the changes in situation while Western countries, especially the US, remain conceited about their outdated system in spite of lots of problems such as financial deficit, heavy national debts, poor infrastructures, military inefficiency, etc.

China has set a successful model of socialism with Chinese characteristics for developing countries to learn from.

Western democracy is a good system, but it needs reform for improvement to be commensurate with the changes of situation. Without reform, it problems set poor examples for developing countries.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SubChina’s report, full text of which can be viewed at http://supchina.com/2017/12/20/is-there-a-global-backlash-against-china/?utm_source=SupChina&utm_campaign=7604b7e8dc-20171220-444+GlobalBacklashChina&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_caef3ab334-7604b7e8dc-164862477


China Held World Multi-party Meeting to Say No to Western Democracy


Chinese leader Xi Jinping (center) arrives with leaders at the opening ceremony of the international conference in Beijing on December 1. Photo: AP

Xi Jinping Thought, Declaration of ‘China Can Say No’ (8)

China held high-level dialogue between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and political parties from around the world from November 30 to December 3.

In its report “China will take a more active role in world problems, Xi Jinping says” on the dialogue, SCMP quotes Guo Yezhou, deputy head of the liaison department, as saying before the even that the dialogue had been organised in response to international requests for “in-depth knowledge” about the 19th party congress and Xi Jinping’s political ideology, which had been accepted by the Congress into CCP Constitution as Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.

SCMP says according to Xinhua, the meeting was attended by representatives from over 300 overseas political groups mostly from Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Africa, but the Republican Party in the US and Russian ruling party United Russia also sent representatives.

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping gave a speech at the opening session, saying, “We do not import foreign models, and we do not export the China model, either,” and “We will not require other countries to copy what we do.”

Xinhua says in its report “Many speakers attributed China’s success to the choice of a path based on its own characteristics and praised its standing of ‘not exporting the Chinese model.’”

That implies that China provides an example of choosing the way of development based on a country’s own characteristics instead of importing other countries’ ways, which clearly means negation of importing Western democracy.

Many attendees have accepted Xi’s proposal to make the conference of dialogue a regular event.

In addition, SCMP says, “Xi said the Chinese Communist Party would step up communications with overseas political groups and enable 15,000 of their members to visit China for inter-party exchanges in the coming five years.”

China will certainly incur lots of costs in providing accommodation, travel and other treatments to the 15,000 members of overseas political groups to convince them that Western democracy is not their only choice.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP and Xinhua reports, full text of the former can be found at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2122536/china-will-take-more-active-role-world-problems-xi and that of the latter in Chinese can be found at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/03/c_136797653.htm.


Chinese Model Gives Rise to Great Concerns among Some Westerners


Reuters shows Westerners’ great concerns on the growth of China’s influence in its report “President Xi says China will not export its political system” yesterday.

In fact, Chinese political system is being imported though China does not want to export it. If goods are attractive, they will be imported in large quantities though there is no effort to market them.

When China is poor and backward, Mao contributed lots of China’s resources to export China’s socialist system in vain because there was little demand for China’s poor political system.

Now, China is rich and strong. It sets a model for poor nations to obtain prosperity, but China is wise now. It knows that each nation shall find a way suitable for its national conditions to obtain prosperity. That is why Xi says China will not export its political system.

While telling people abroad that Chinese system is not for sale, Xi tells CCP members they shall make efforts to improve themselves for CCP to have a “big image”. That is a good way to fight corruption and raise the quality of CCP members.

In addition, Chinese media is praising Xi about his “diplomatic thought” transcending 300 years of Western international relations theory and serving as a marker of China’s growing soft power. Such desire for big image and soft power will encourage Chinese people to improve themselves in dealing with environmental pollution, etc. and even improving China’s toilets.

From such efforts, we see China’s great potential to become the envy of the world. There is no need to market Chinese model even less hard sale of it.

As for foreign enterprises and publications’ concerns about the restrictions they suffer in China mentioned in the report, it is China’s domestic affairs. If they are unhappy, they have the freedom to leave and let Chinese enterprises to take over their market share.

China certainly shall carry out further reform to remove some of the concerns, but foreign enterprises have to conform to Chinese norms such as the establishment and operation of party organizations in them and the restriction on publishing things that China regards as harmful.

As long as China does not impose such norms abroad, their concerns are not justified.

Chinese people and enterprises also encounter restrictions abroad. They have to conform to other countries’ law, norms, customs and especially their national security requirements

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parties/president-xi-says-china-will-not-export-its-political-system-idUSKBN1DV4UM.


NORTH KOREA CHANGING COURSE


In my recent article “A Dynasty on the Verge of Collapse”, I point out that North Korea’s Kim Dynasty “has to feed its people and improve their living standards especially when its neighbors South Korea and China have become rich and mass protests for democracy are spreading to quite a few countries.” Otherwise it will soon collapse.

Just as I have predicted, Commercial Radio Hong Kong reported on January 23, 2012 that in a recent cabinet meeting, North Korea decided that this year it would concentrate its efforts on developing agriculture and light industry in order to improve people’s living standards. Kim Jong-il’s decade-long policy of focusing on developing military strength is discarded.

North Korea’s agriculture has been in great trouble since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. According to Chinese sources, North Korea has been trying hard to obtain aids from the capitalist world especially America and may become America’s dependency. Its nuclear blackmail is a shrewd trick to begin dialogue with America, but it has failed to turn America into its mentor perhaps due to incompatible political differences.

According to Chinese sources, for a long time, North Korea regarded China as much inferior to America in spite of China’s success in achieving tremendous economic growth. However, Kim Jong-il gradually saw China’s potential and decided a few years ago to begin to open up to China but did not really change his course of focusing on weapon development.

Now, in order to make its major change of course a success, North Korea has to draw in Chinese capital and technology and rely on China as its major market of export. As a result, China will succeed in setting a North Korean model for the establishment of a greater Asia co-prosperity sphere. Much more Sino-North Korean joint ventures controlled by Chinese parties will be established to exploit North Korea’s cheep labor and forest and mineral resources and North Korea will become rich along with China. This will attract China’s neighbors to do the same.

China has already signed a free trade treaty with 10 ASEAN countries, which South Korea and Japan are anxious to join and India is much interested in participating. The large number of rich overseas Chinese in ASEAN countries will certainly help China in its efforts to set up such a sphere, but the most attractive factor is China’s growing market of 1.3 billion consumers. In addition, China has been satisfactorily developing its relations with Central Asian countries and trying hard to resolve border dispute with India.

If China adopts a win-win policy in dealing with North Korea and extends this policy to other countries in the sphere, China will become the center of an economic community greater than the EU.

Chan Kai Yee is the author of “Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements: The Silent Peaceful Coup D’état In China…”


CHINA’S GREATER ASIA CO-PROSPERITY SPHERE


In my article “A Dynasty on the Verge of Collapse”, I quote North Korean official news agency’s report that urges party organizations to prove their loyalty by resolving the “burning” food problem and point out that knowing well Kim Dynasty’s predicament, the regime’s three official newspaper’s joint New Year editorial even urges “the whole party, the entire army and all the people” to “become human bulwarks and human shields in defending Kim Jong-un.” Obviously, the Kim regime knows well that it is on the verge of collapse.

Recently, Kim Jong-nam, the prince who has failed to succeed to the throne, predicts his brother’s failure to maintain Kim Dynasty’s survival. Knowing well the dire situation in North Korea, Kim Jong-nam believes that King Jong-un lacks the experience to fulfill the Herculean task of resolving the food problem and improving people’s living standards. However, Kim Jong-nam forgets the China factor.

China is now at a turning point. For further economic growth to realize its dream to become too strong to be bullied by other countries, it needs a huge market, lots of natural resources and cheep labor. In order to greatly expand its domestic market, it has recently established nationwide life and medical insurance safety nets and is building millions of subsidized housing in order to make its people save less and spend more. In addition, it plans to speed up urbanization and substantially increase workers’ income.

However, when labor becomes expensive, lots of its labor-intensive factories will be in trouble. They have to move to North Korea where there is a shortage of investment and lots of cheap labor.

China is now exporting its Chinese model. Following China’s example, North Korea is now establishing Sino-North Korean joint ventures for China to utilize the natural resources and cheap labor there. North Korea will export lots of goods to China. This will make North Korea rich and greatly improve people’s living standards. North Korea will in turn become a growing market for Chinese exports. North Korea’s Kim Dynasty, if follows the Chinese model, will become popular. That will be the only way out for Kim Jong-un to maintain the survival of his dynasty.

The transformation of North Korea from poverty to prosperity will set a North Korean model that will be eagerly followed by China’s neighbors. Then the vast and populous Southeast Asia region will become sources of natural resources and cheap labor for China and a growing market for China while China will offer its huge market for those neighboring countries.

Decades ago, Japan shed lots of blood to fight for the establishment of its Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere but failed disastrously. However, it seems that China will succeed in establishing a greater Asia co-prosperity sphere centered on China without firing one bullet if it succeeds in setting a North Korean model.