American Cannot Be Back if Republicans Back in Power


Foreign Affairs article “America Is Back—but for How Long?” on June 14, 2021 worries that due to polarization in US politics if current Democratic President Joe Biden is succeeded by a Republican like Donald Trump, there will be an end to Biden’s “America Is Back”.

Therefore, the unity of the West in current G7 summit is but one in appearance. EU certainly has to keep on its great efforts to make preparations for a world where America is not back!

China seems to be making better preparations whether America is back or not. It’s Belt and Route initiative will enable it to move lots of its enterprises for export to the US away from China to Silk Road economic belt. In addition it has long been making great efforts and providing huge subsidies for development of its own advanced technology.

EU certainly knows if Trump comes beck or someone like him comes to power, it will be the next target of US trade and tech war.

If unfortunately America is not back and EU is not prepared while China has been prepared through its Belt and Road initiative, China will look on with a smile the trade and tech war between the US and EU.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Foreign Affairs’ article, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-06-14/america-back-how-long?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=America%20Is%20Back—but%20for%20How%20Long?&utm_content=20210614&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017


China Able Not Only to Say No but Also to Retaliate


When Xi Jinping issued his Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era at Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Congress in 2017, I said it meant China could say no. The developments after the Congress have proved what I said.

Now nearly four years has passed, it turns out China is able not only to say no but also to retaliate.

What has indicated that?

China has rushed its anti-sanction law through its National Congress Standing Committee on June 10 to make it come into force immediately right before G7 summit where the US wants to rally its G7 allies around it to confront China.

US’s EU allies have suspended the ramification of their investment deal with China as a threat for China to withdraw its counter actions in response to EU’s sanctions on alleged use of forced labor in China’s Xinjiang.

China’s hasty adoption of its anti-action law tells G7 China is able to and will retaliate against foreign sanctions. The counter sanctions against EU sanctions are legitimate in Chinese law!

If EU wants to break the deal, China will smash it. That’s what China’s adoption of the law means.

There is a Chinese saying: “破罐破摔” (literally translated as “smash to pieces the pot that has been made cracked.”) It is to some extent equivalent to the English saying “He that hopes not for good fears not evil.” If G7 members join the US in confronting China, China will retaliate with no fear. That is what the hasty adoption of the law means.

After all EU is much better benefited by the deal than China. If EU does not want better access to China’ vast growing market, let it. With that mindset, China has adopted the law in a hurry.

Article by Chan Kai Yee


What Can Biden Give to Get Europe’s Support in Countering China?


AP says in its report about US President Joe Biden’s Europe trip titled “Biden opens overseas trip declaring ‘United States is back’”, “The trip will be far more about messaging than specific actions or deals.”

That is quite true as the US is really unable to give any country anything by its actions or deals in Biden’s trip to Europe.

What Biden can give is but the promise that “the US is back”, but he cannot ensure the Europe that the US will be back forever as he cannot ensure his successors will continue his policies. Perhaps, like Trump, the next president will make the US not be back again.

Biden’s major aim is to rally Europe around the US to counter China, but China constitutes minimal threat to EU but provides EU with great gains in its market. True, the US is unhappy with its trade with China, but the US is Europe’s major competitor in Chinese market. Its trade and tech war with China aims at maintaining US dominance. However, the US is EU’s major competitor in Chinese market. Reduction of US dominance will greatly benefit EU in Chinese market. So will EU join the US in confronting China economically especially when China has signed an investment deal with EU that may benefit EU greatly? I doubt that as joining the US in confronting China will only benefit the US at the expense of EU. The US has to give EU something as compensation but the US simply can give EU nothing in return.

Perhaps, the US may give EU protection against Russia EU’s actual greatest threat, but there will be no actions or deals in Biden’s trip. Biden is even unwilling to meet Ukrainian president before his summit with Putin in order to avoid receiving Ukraine’s request to counter Putin in the summit.

AP’s report says, “Biden wants to privately pressure Putin to end myriad provocations, including Cybersecurity attacks on American businesses by Russian-based hackers, the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and repeated overt and covert efforts by the Kremlin to interfere in U.S. elections.” However, the pressure for such purpose has already been there publicly but in vain. How can private pressure work? Biden has to give Putin something in return in order to get something from Putin.

Putin has already said Russia will put an end to its use of US dollars as reserve currency or means of payment. That will hurt the US much greater than Russia as together with China and other friends they may reduce the dominance of US dollars. That is the pressure Putin puts on the US. Putin wants the US to lift sanctions for Putin to remove the pressure in return.

There must be some secret agreement to benefit both sides as it is common sense that leaders meet for benefit instead of quarrel.

I doubt Biden may achieve anything great in his Europe trip. Anyway for the president of a country in trouble to gather support for maintaining its dominance, a trip abroad may enable him to have some relaxation at least.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on AP’s report, full text of which can be viewed at https://apnews.com/article/biden-first-overseas-trip-putin-8b4c67c3f72a4163a7cfbecb192a93cf.


China says it hopes France will push for Sino-EU investment deal


Reuters May 26, 2021 7:48 PM HKT

China has told France it hopes Paris will push for the early ratification of the China-EU investment deal, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday.

Commerce minister Wang Wentao gave the message to France’s minister delegate for trade, Franck Riester, in a video conference on Tuesday, the ministry added.

The European Parliament last week halted ratification of a new investment pact with China until Beijing lifts sanctions on EU politicians, deepening a dispute in Sino-European relations and denying EU companies greater access to China.

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


EU, U.S. say they can partner to hold China to account on “trade-distorting policies”


Reuters

May 17, 2021 6:42 PM HKT

The United States and the European Union issued a joint statement on Monday saying that they can partner to “hold countries like China that support trade-distorting policies to account”.

The statement was issued by the United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis.

The statement announced the start of discussions to address global steel and aluminum excess capacity.

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


EU blames China for endangering peace in South China Sea


Yew Tian

April 25, 2021 2:26 PM HKT

The European Union called out China on Saturday for endangering peace in the South China Sea and urged all parties to abide by a 2016 tribunal ruling which rejected most of China’s claim to sovereignty in the sea, but which Beijing has rejected.

The EU last week released a new policy aimed at stepping up its influence in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s rising power.

The Philippines on Friday protested to China over its failure to withdraw what it called as “threatening” boats believed to be manned by maritime militia around the disputed Whitsun Reef, which Manila calls the Julian Felipe Reef.

“Tensions in the South China Sea, including the recent presence of large Chinese vessels at Whitsun Reef, endanger peace and stability in the region,” a EU spokesperson said in a statement on Saturday.

EU reiterated its strong opposition to “unilateral actions that could undermine regional stability and international rules-based order”.

It urged all parties to resolve disputes peacefully in accordance with international law, and highlighted a 2016 international arbitration that had ruled in favor of the Philippines while invalidating most of China’s claims in the South China Sea.

China rejected EU’s accusation that its ships at Whitsun Reef, which China calls Niu’E Jiao, had endangered peace and security.

The Chinese Mission to the EU in a statement on Saturday reiterated that the reef is part of China’s Nansha Islands, or Spratly Islands, and that it was “reasonable and lawful” for Chinese fishing boats to operate there and shelter from the wind.

The Chinese statement also insisted that China’s sovereignty, rights and interests in the South China Sea were formed in the “long course of history and consistent with international law” and rejected the 2016 tribunal ruling as “null and void”.

“The South China Sea should not become a tool for certain countries to contain and suppress China, much less a wrestling ground for major-power rivalry,” the Chinese statement said.

China is increasingly worried that Europe and other countries are heeding U.S. President Joe Biden’s call for a “coordinated approach” towards China, which had so far materialised in the form of sanctions over its security crackdown in Hong Kong and treatment of Uyghur Muslims.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken last month said Washington “stands by its ally, the Philippines,” in the face of China’s massing maritime militia at Whitsun Reef.

Source: Reuters “EU blames China for endangering peace in South China Sea”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


China’s One-in-Three Ensured, US New Cold War Lacks Allies


US to Build a New Cold War Camp against China

China signed a major investment pact with EU at the end of 2020 to implement its One-in-Three strategy as Chinese leaders have the vision to see that US new President Joe Biden wants to launch a new Cold War against China. In such a cold war, the US needs a cold war camp.

China certainly has its camp with lots of Asian countries as its members and Russia as China’s co-leader of the camp. As South Korea is not willing to and India dare no join US Cold War camp, the US will only have Japan alone in its Cold War camp in Asia. US major hope lies in EU.

Failure to have EU Join US Cold War

In early 2021, the US made great diplomatic efforts to have EU join its new Cold War against China but failed. EU members have lots of interests in Chinese market and may have better access to the market due to the investment pact China signed with EU at the end of 2020 in order to win over EU or at least prevent EU from joining US Cold War camp against China. If EU maintains its independence from the US, China and Russia’s Asian bloc will be one in the three powers in the world: EU, China and Russia’s Asia block and the US. In that case China’s Asia block is stronger than the US and Japan’s Cold War camp. However, if EU joins US Cold War camp, US camp will be much stronger than China’s Asia block.

EU certainly does not want to clearly take side with the US in countering China as it does not want to lose the benefits from China’s vast market. Moreover, China’s rise does not constitute any substantial threat but offers it with great opportunity. As a result, US Secretary of State Blinken was frustrated to say that he would not force EU members to take side between the US and China. In fact, he could not as the US lacks the strength to do so.

China-EU Pact May Fail due to China’s Counter Sanctions on EU

The US seems fortunate that in March 2021, EU joined the US, UK and Canada in imposing sanctions on China for alleged human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang. China retaliated with counter sanctions that upset EU. It may cause its investment deal with EU to be ratified by the European parliament.

Reinhard Buetikofer, the chair of the parliament’s China delegation, said, “The fate of this deal is very much in question,”

However as the deal is vital for the success of Xi Jinping’s one-in-three strategy, on April 7, 2021 Xi had a phone call with German leader Merkel to win Germany over as he knows Germany’s great influence in EU.

Boycott Xinjiang Cotton and Counter Boycott

Due to the sanctions, EU boycotted Xinjiang cotton. Chinese people responded fiercely. They boycotted foreign well-known fashion brands in response of EU companies’ boycott of Xinjiang cotton. That will greatly facilitate the development of China’s national fashion brands on China’s vast domestic market. China is now anxious to develop its own national well-known brands but its negligence for decades of national intellectual property has enabled foreign well-known brands to flood their products on Chinese market. Foreign fashion brands’ boycott of Chinese cotton provides China with a golden opportunity to develop its own national fashion brands.

Chinese companies will use the cotton foreign companies boycotted to produce fashion products to replace the brand of goods boycotted by foreign companies. Lack of foreign brands will greatly facilitate the development of China’s national brands. Chinese people’s boycott may hurt some EU countries’ fashion industry.

One-in-Three Efforts

Chinese President Xi Jinping took the opportunity to talk with German Chancellor Merkel on the phone. He gave her the advice that Germany had to maintain its independence from the influence of others. Xi was certainly trying to persuade Germany not to follow the US in fighting a Cold War against China. He got Merkel’s words that Germany, the most influential country in EU, will maintain its independence. As a matter fact, Xi has thus got Merkel’s words that Germany would not join US Cold War against China. After all China is Germany’s major trade partners and has signed a trade deal with EU to allow EU even better access to Chinese market.

Xi’s efforts will be followed up by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s virtual conference with his German counterpart Heiko Maas to further improve China-EU ties.

Obviously, Germany also wants closer relations with China to benefit from China’s vast market. Right before the conference German Prime Minister Heiko Maas warned EU not to cut ties with China.

He said that EU needed to engage with China despite many differences instead of opting for a more isolationist approach.

He was quoted by media as saying, “In the EU, we have been describing China as a partner, competitor and systemic rival at the same time”. “In all these three dimensions we need strong, sustainable communication channels with Beijing. De-coupling is the wrong way to go.”

In the virtual conference between China’s Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang Yi and German Foreign Minister Maas on April 21, 2021, Wang Yi said that as major world economies, China and Germany shall jointly resist the so-called “de-coupling” adverse trend and jointly safeguard the smooth operation and stability of global industrial and supply chains.

Wang Yi pointed out that China did not approve of any re-drawing of ideological lines or engaging in new group confrontation and is even more opposed to engaging in “small cliques”, advocating “New Cold War” and even arbitrarily imposing unilateral sanctions based on false information

Wang said that China-Germany and China-EU cooperation is mutual beneficial and win-win in essence. It may realize mutual supplementation of advantages. He hoped that the German side would also maintain its opening-up to China, reduce its restriction to export of high-tech products to China and provide Chinese enterprises in Europe with fair, open and nondiscriminatory investment environment.

Maas is quoted by media as saying that de-coupling is not commensurate with any party’s interests. Germany is willing to maintain close coordination and communications on multilateral and international affairs to jointly deal with global issues and challenges.

Obviously Germany wants better relations with China independent from the US. With Germany’s weighty influence in the EU and with the benefits provided by the investment pact between EU and China, the US is unable to have EU join its new Cold War camp against China.

US Cold War lacks allies, but China’s one-in-three will prevail as it advocates win-win cooperation instead of confrontation whether within or out of China’s Asia block. China will be benefited by its closer cooperation with EU, especially in developing high technology.

Article by Chan Kai Yee


Don’t cut ties with China, German FM warns EU


2021-04-22 HKT 09:46

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Germany’s Heiko Maas called for “strong, sustainable communication channels with Beijing”. File photo: AP

Germany’s Heiko Maas called for “strong, sustainable communication channels with Beijing”. File photo: AP

The European Union needs to engage with China despite many differences instead of opting for a more isolationist approach, Germany said on Wednesday.

“In the EU, we have been describing China as a partner, competitor and systemic rival at the same time,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said ahead of a virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

“In all these three dimensions we need strong, sustainable communication channels with Beijing. De-coupling is the wrong way to go.”

Berlin’s warning against de-coupling is in line with Beijing’s long-held position against disengagement among nations, including with China, despite mutual differences.

Last month, China was hit by a round of coordinated sanctions from the United States, European Union, Britain and Canada over reports of forced labour in the far western region of Xinjiang, accusations that Beijing rejects.

Ties between China and Germany have generally remained stable since last year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said later in his meeting with Maas.

Wang also said major economies like China and Germany should jointly resist any de-coupling, and instead seek to uphold the stability of global industrial and supply chains, according to a statement from the foreign ministry in Beijing.

At the same time, China does not approve of any re-drawing of ideological lines, and is even more opposed to engaging in “small cliques”, and even arbitrarily imposing unilateral sanctions based on false information, Wang said. (Reuters)

Source: RTHK “Don’t cut ties with China, German FM warns EU”

Note: This is RTHK’s report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


EU Gives Lip Support for US, Seeks Economic Gains in Asia-Pacific


Reuters’ report “EU sets out Indo-Pacific plan, says it’s not ‘anti-China’” tries to make readers believe that the statement of EU foreign ministers meeting on April 19, 2021 supports the US Cold War against China. The report quotes the statement as saying, EU “considers that the EU should reinforce its strategic focus, presence and actions in the Indo-Pacific… based on the promotion of democracy, rule of law, human rights and international law.”

However, the statement obviously shows EU is unwilling to take side with the US in countering China. Therefore the statement only gives the above lip support for US with respect to democracy, rule of law, human rights and international law without any specifics. On the contrary, EU insists its strategy is not against China.

In fact EU’s plan is to pursue economic gains in Indo-Pacific as it sees the great potential in Indo-Pacific. The statement says that EU seeks free trade deals with Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand.

In addition, the report says, “German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has warned of the EU missing out, after China and other Asia-Pacific economies signed what could become the world’s largest free trade agreement from 2022.”

As China is the largest market with greatest growth potential in Asia-Pacific, EU certainly do not want to lose its opportunity there so that the statement says the bloc wanted to sign an investment treaty with China that both sides agreed in principle late in 2020.

That is why EU may not join US Cold War against China.

Sad for the US, only Japan joins its Cold War against China. As EU pursues independence from the US for its own interests, there will be no two Cold War camps but three powers in the world: the US, EU and the Asian bloc with China and Russia as its centers.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-sets-out-indo-pacific-plan-says-its-not-anti-china-2021-04-19/


China, Russia’s Coordinated Challenges to US


China Challenges Philippines Again in South China Sea

In March 2021, China massed more than 200 fishing boats in waters near Whitsun Reef claimed by both China and the Philippines. Philippines protested so that China took the opportunity to claim again that the area is China’s as it lies within China’s nine-dash line. The Philippines cited the arbitration ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague to deny China’s rights and interests in the South China Sea within China’s nine-dash line. China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that China did not accept or recognize the arbitration ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague.

US Failure to Help Philippines with Scarborough Standoff in 2012

That is the same as the Huangyan Island (also known as Scarborough Shoal in the world) that also lies within both China’s nine-dash line and Philippines claimed 200-mile exclusive economic zone. US open denial of China’s nine-dash line emboldened Philippine President Aquino to start the Scarborough Standoff with China in 2012, Aquino hoped that US Navy would have helped drive Chinese Navy, coast guard ships and fishing boats away from Scarborough Shoal and the waters around it within the exclusive economic zone claimed by the Philippines. The US, however, did not interfere as it traditionally does not take side in other countries’ border disputes.

As the US refused to take actions, China was able to entirely drive the Philippines away from the Shoal and the area around it and ban Philippine fishing there. Philippines complained to the US and asked it for help. The US remained inaction but told the Philippines to apply for arbitration at the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague. China simply refused to take part in the arbitration, claiming the said court had no jurisdiction over the case. Philippines had to incur arbitration costs of tens of millions of US dollars but was not sure whether it would win. In addition, it clearly knew that the court’s ruling was not binding so that it could not enforce the ruling on China even if it won.

The US promised to use its influence to enable the Philippines to win and to force China to accept the court’s ruling.

True enough, with US and Japan’s influence the Philippines obtained an arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines that denies all China’s rights and interests in the South China Sea. China immediately announced that it would not accept or recognize the ruling while the UN immediately announced that the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague is not a UN agency. As a result, the US and quite a few Western media are not able to make people believe that the court’s ruling is a UN agency’s.

It would have been otherwise, if the Philippines had submitted the case to the International Court of Justice (ICE), a UN agency. However, both the US and the Philippines lacked confidence to win the case at ICJ. In addition, if they had lost the case in ICJ, they would have no ground to force their views on China while China’s rights and interests in the South China Sea would have been officially justified by the ICJ.

As China has refused to accept or recognize the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague and as the UN has denied the court is an agency under it, few countries except a few Western countries have respected the ruling.

Frustrated, the US sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to force China to accept the ruling, but China responded with the challenge of a war with the US. The US had to give up as it was not willing to incur the heavy costs of war for Philippine interests.

China Challenges US Again in South China Sea

Mow US President Joe Biden regards China as America’s major threat and has begun a new Cold War against China. US provocative activities in Taiwan Straight and the South China Sea have greatly intensified.

Safeguard Core Interests in South China Sea while Making a Show to Take Taiwan

US high generals believe China may soon send its troops to take Taiwan and thus trigger a war with the US. However, China will not gain much in taking Taiwan by force especially if the US has been forced to fight China. The war may turn Taiwan into ruins so that with heavy costs of a war, China will not get economic gains in taking Taiwan by force; therefore, as long as Taiwan does not openly announce independence China will not take Taiwan by force. So far the US, though has openly declared its protection of Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan, does not support Taiwan independence as one-China policy is the basis of China-US relations.

The South China Sea is an entirely different issue. It is a vast area of three million square kilometers with rich energy and fishing resources. Due to such tremendously great interests, China has incurred billions of dollars costs to build seven artificial islands there in order to strengthen its defense there. The three airstrips on the islands alone may deploy 600 fighter jets, which together with the missiles deployed there constitute very powerful fire power enough to deal with all the aircraft carrier battle groups the US is able to send there. Moreover there are lots of airfields and missile bases on the coast near the sea.

Now, the US seems trying to deny China’s rights and interests there by frequently sending its aircraft battle groups to patrol the South China Sea with the excuse of ensuring freedom of navigation. For more than a month from March and April 2021 China’s fishing fleet remains in the area around Whitsun Reef that China disputes with the Philippines over the ownership of the reef.

As the reef emerged above water only at low tide according to a judgment by the International Court of Justice in 2012: “low-tide elevations cannot be appropriated”, no one can claim ownership of he reef. However, at the end of the 20th century some small sand dunes had developed on the reef making a territorial claim possible. China sends the fishing fleet there with obvious intention to claim ownership of the reef.

In response, on April 7, 2021 US Department of State spokesperson Ned Price said “An armed attack against the Philippines’ armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea, will trigger our obligations under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.”

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin complained to US Secretary of State Blinken in his phone call with him on April 9, 2021. He got Blinken’s verbal confirmation of US commitment to defend the Philippines.

Obviously the US is not carrying out a freedom of navigation operation by sending an aircraft carrier into the South China Sea. A destroyer or even frigate is quite enough. The US is showing its strength to scare China.

However, before the carrier came to the South China Sea, on April 5 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to his counterparts from four ASEAN countries, “China will not accept that there is any nation in the world that [can] put itself superior to the others, and that any nation will have a final say on world affairs. If the US continues to confront, China will take it calmly without fear.”

Before US provocation with frequent deployment of its carrier battle groups to show its strength in the South China Sea, China was not so active in safeguarding its rights and interests in the South China Sea as it wants to maintain friendly relations with the Philippines. Now China used not only its coast guard ship but even naval missile fast boats to drive Philippine civilian ships and fishermen away from the disputed area. That is quite exceptional. Obviously China has been intentionally testing the US. If the US only wants to make a show, China will not challenge it, but if the US tries to interfere with the maritime territory disputes between China and the Philippines to performs its defense-treaty obligations in helping Philippine civilian ships counter Chinese navy or coast guard ships as alleged by US government statement orally confirmed by US Secretary of State Blinken, China will fight the US in order to safeguard its core interests there.

US carrier battle group is surrounded by China’s forces on Chinese coast and artificial islands. It cannot flee to the north as there are lots of Chinese coastal forces to intercept it. Its only way of retreat will be through the Malacca Strait or Bashi Channel to the west or south of the South China Sea. China sent its Liaoning aircraft battle group to conduct military drill to the east of Taiwan seemingly to threaten Taiwan but really to intercept US carrier battle group in case the group attacks Chinese navy to help the Philippines.

I don’t think that the US will help the Philippines and thus trigger a naval war with China. However, whether due to tacit understanding or secret agreement, Russia massed its troops along its border with Ukraine at the same time.

That is not the first time China and Russia coordinate. When Russia invaded Ukraine, China coordinated with the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea.

Russia Sends Troops to Its Border with Ukraine to Coordinate with China’s Challenge in South China Sea

Russia’s military move is testing the US whether it will protect its European allies against Russia as promised while the US is challenged by China in the South China Sea. The US is sending two warships to the Black Sea to counter Russia, but that is far from enough.

If US carrier battle group fails to help the Philippines counter China in the South China Sea as I foretell. It shows US weakness. Russia may well invade Ukraine as neither Ukraine nor EU has enough troops to counter Russia in Europe. There certainly will not be serious military conflicts as Russia has no intention to have long term military conflicts with EU. Russia wants friendly relations with EU as EU is its major energy market; therefore, it has been making great efforts to complete its Nord Stream 2 pipeline for direct supply of natural gas to Germany and its neighbors. However, by invading Ukraine, it will test US desire and will to protect EU. When it is clear that the US has no desire or will to protect its allies whether in Asia or Europe, US allies will entirely lose confidence in the US. Without allies, the US will be entirely unable to conduct its Cold War against China and Russia and without US interference, Russia may greatly improve its relations with EU.

Article by Chan Kai Yee