The US has to pursue isolation as world leadership is too heavy a burden and it has to boost its economic growth to maintain its number one status in world economy. That is certainly a correct move, but it gives China opportunity to grab world leadership from the US.
I have repeatedly warned China not to try to replace the US as world leader as it has not been strong enough yet, but China’s Xi seems precisely doing the opposite – making great efforts to grab from the US world leadership at least in economy and diplomacy.
Is Xi stupid in doing so? China’s gifted strategist Sun Tzu teaches us to maintain invincible position while not miss the opportunity to win. One relies on oneself to be invincible but cannot make one’s enemy lose the war, if there are no factors for the enemy to lose the war. That is why Sun Tzu says that one can know victory but cannot make victory.
Indeed one can play tricks to make one’s enemy commit mistakes and lose the war like what China’s gifted strategist Sun Bin did in his famous Battle of Maling. But what if the enemy would not be duped?
At the beginning of the Korean War, China’ talented general Peng Dehuai copied Sun Bin’s trick. His troops encountered South Korean troops first but retreated instead of winning an easy first battle as he had to avoid giving his enemy the impression that his troops were capable to fight.
On the contrary, he told his troops to throw things away while retreating to give General McArthur the false impression that his troops were in panic as they were afraid of well-equipped US troops. As a result, McArthur advanced rashly and had his troops encircled by Chinese troops. Peng’s surprise offensive caused US troops to collapse and retreat as fast as they could to the south of Seoul. The victory was brilliant, but what if General McArthur had not been arrogant but had stopped his rash advance and, instead, built fortifications along the frontline to keep the large part of North Korea he had occupied. With poor weapons, General Peng simply could not break US troops’ defense.
McArthur gave Peng the opportunity to win and Peng did not miss the opportunity to win though his troops were much weaker.
Now, China is not strong enough to win, but the US is giving China the opportunity to win. Shall China miss the opportunity? I pointed out in my post earlier that Chinese President Xi Jinping is a man of quick decision and quick actions. I now realize that Xi is taking the opportunity to win. That is why China has suddenly taken the initiative to improve relations with Japan, India and Indonesia, the most important nation of ASEAN. (See Reuters’ reports “China’s Xi, India’s Modi seek new relationship after summit” on April 28 at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-india/chinas-xi-indias-modi-seek-new-relationship-after-summit-idUSKBN1HZ019, “China Premier Li says open to increasing Indonesia palm oil import quota” on May 7 at “https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-china/china-premier-li-says-open-to-increasing-indonesia-palm-oil-import-quota-idUSKBN1I80RH and
“Japan, China hail warming ties amid troubled history” on May 9 at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-china-hail-warming-ties-amid-troubled-history-idUSKBN1IA1GF.
The busy diplomacy shows Xi’s efforts to grab world leadership from the US as US retreat in the world is giving China the opportunity to win. Japanese PM Abe in particular has failed sadly to persuade Trump to return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and has now to focus on ASEAN + three (China, Japan and South Korea), where China will certainly be the leader.
Under such circumstances, China may not allow the US to defeat it in trade war or how can China make others believe that it is a real rival to the US?
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ reports
Ridzwan Rahmat, Singapore – IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly
25 February 2018
Indonesia has acquired four units of Wing Loong I UAVs with surface strike capabilities
Aircraft will be inducted with the country’s first composite UAV aviation squadron in West Kalimantan
The Indonesian government has acquired four strike-capable Wing Loong I medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicles (MALE UAVs) from Chinese state-owned aerospace and defence company Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC).
A contract for the aircraft was signed in 2017, and the UAVs will be operated by the Indonesian Air Force’s (Tentara Nasional Indonesia – Angkatan Udara’s: TNI-AU’s) Aviation Squadron 51 (Skadron Udara 51), multiple sources from within the TNI headquarters in Cilangkap confirmed separately with Jane’s between 22 and 25 February.
Aviation Squadron 51 is based near the city of Pontianak in West Kalimantan, and the unit shares a runway with the Supadio International Airport. The squadron currently operates Israeli-made Aerostar tactical unmanned aircraft system (UAS) equipped with stabilised, gimbal-mounted electro-optic and infrared (EO/IR) sensor for surveillance missions. With the induction of the Wing Loong I, the unit will be Indonesia’s first composite UAV squadron with two different aircraft types.
The Wing Loong I was developed and manufactured by AVIC’s Chengdu Aircraft Design and Research Institute (CADI) subsidiary. It has a length of 8.7 m, a height of 2.8 m, and features a wingspan of 14 m. The aircraft has a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 1,150 kg and a payload capacity of 200 kg.
The UAV is powered by one piston engine, and has a service ceiling of 7,500 m (24,600 ft). It has a maximum range of approximately 108 n miles (200 km), and an endurance of about 20 hours. Payloads that can go on board the Wing Loong I include the DH-3010 search-and-rescue (SAR) radar, and the AVIC Luoyang LE380 EO/IR turret.
Source: Jane’s 360 “Indonesia acquires four Wing Loong I UAVs from China”
Note: This is Jane’s 360’s report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
Tom Allard and Bernadette Christina Munthe July 14, 2017
JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia renamed the northern reaches of its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea as the North Natuna Sea on Friday, the latest act of resistance by Southeast Asian nations to China’s territorial ambitions in the maritime region.
Seen by analysts as an assertion of Indonesian sovereignty, part of the renamed sea is claimed by China under its contentious maritime boundary, known as the ‘nine-dash line’, that encompasses most of the resource-rich sea.
Several Southeast Asian states dispute China’s territorial claims and are competing with China to exploit the South China Sea’s abundant hydrocarbon and fishing resources. China has raised the ante by deploying military assets on artificial islands constructed on shoals and reefs in disputed parts of the sea.
Indonesia insists it’s a non-claimant state in the South China Sea dispute but has clashed with China over fishing rights around the Natuna Islands, detaining Chinese fishermen and expanding its military presence in the area over the past 18 months.
Unveiling the new official map, the deputy of maritime sovereignty at the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Arif Havas Oegroseno, noted the northern side of its exclusive economic zone was the site of oil and gas activity.
“We want to update the naming of the sea [and] we gave a new name in line with the usual practice: the North Natuna Sea,” he told reporters.
In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he didn’t know anything about the details of the issue, but said the name South China Sea had broad international recognition and clear geographic limits.
“Certain countries’ so-called renaming is totally meaningless,” he told a daily news briefing. “We hope the relevant country can meet China halfway and properly maintain the present good situation in the South China Sea region, which has not come easily.”
I Made Andi Arsana, an expert on the Law of the Sea from Indonesia’s Universitas Gadjah Mada, said the renaming carried no legal force but was a political and diplomatic statement.
“It will be seen as a big step by Indonesia to state its sovereignty,” he told Reuters. “It will send a clear message, both to the Indonesian people and diplomatically speaking.”
Euan Graham, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, said Indonesia’s action followed renewed resistance to Chinese territorial claims by other Southeast Asian states.
“This will be noticed in Beijing,” he said.
Last week, Vietnam extended an Indian oil concession off its coast while a joint venture led by state-owned PetroVietnam commenced drilling further south. China has a territorial claim in both areas.
Meanwhile, the director of the Philippines Energy Resource Development Bureau, Ismael Ocampo, said on Wednesday that the country could lift a suspension on oil and gas drilling on the Reed Bank by December. The underwater mountain, lying 85 nautical miles off the Philippines coast, is also claimed by China.
Exploration activity was suspended in late 2014 as the Philippines sought an international ruling on China’s territorial claim. The Philippines won the case in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague one year ago.
China refused to recognize the decision. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, who took office on June 30 last year, expressed reluctance about enforcing the decision at the time, as he sought deeper diplomatic and economic ties with China.
However, the Philippines lately has become more assertive about its sovereignty.
More than two dozen oil, gas and coal blocks, including additional areas in disputed waters, may be offered during the December bidding, Ocampo said on Wednesday.
Reporting by Tom Allard and Bernadette Christina Munthe; Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Bill Tarrant
Source: Reuters “Asserting sovereignty, Indonesia renames part of South China Sea”
Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
Indonesia’s air force is holding its largest military exercise this week, near some of its islands in the South China Sea, in a show of sovereignty over the gas-rich area on the fringe of territory claimed by China, officials said on Tuesday.
President Joko Widodo in June launched an unprecedented campaign to bolster fishing, oil exploration and defense facilities around the Natuna island chain after a series of face-offs between the Indonesian navy and Chinese fishing boats.
China, while not disputing Indonesia’s clams to the Natuna islands, has raised Indonesian anger by saying the two countries had “over-lapping claims” to waters near them, an area Indonesia calls the Natuna Sea.
“We want to show our existence in the area. We have a good enough air force to act as a deterrent,” said Jemi Trisonjaya, spokesman for Indonesia’s air force.
More than 2,000 air force personnel were taking part in the two-week long exercise, which includes the deployment of Indonesia’s fleet of Russian Sukhoi and F-16 fighter jets, he said.
Other branches of the Indonesian armed forces are not taking part in exercise, which ends on Thursday.
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, where about $5 trillion worth of trade passes every year. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.
Source: Reuters “Indonesia air force holds its largest military exercise in South China Sea”
Note: This is Reuters report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
Indonesia wants to send hundreds of fishermen to the Natuna Islands to assert its sovereignty over nearby areas of the South China Sea to which China says it also has claims.
President Joko Widodo has launched an unprecedented campaign to bolster fishing, oil exploration and defense facilities around the island chain after a series of face-offs between the Indonesian navy and Chinese fishing boats.
“We are aware that if we don’t do this there could be many claims that disrupt the integrity of Indonesian territory,” Chief Maritime Minister Rizal Ramli told reporters on Wednesday.
The announcement of the plan came a day after the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague rejected China’s historic claims to almost all of the South China Sea and said it had breached the Philippines’ sovereign rights by endangering its ships and fishing and oil projects.
Indonesia is not part of the broader dispute over claims in the South China Sea and it has remained neutral following the ruling, calling for peace and stability.
But Indonesia objects to China’s inclusion of waters around Natuna being included within its “nine-dash line”, a demarcation on China’s maps to show its claims.
Ramli said he would seek cabinet approval this month for the relocation of fishermen from the crowded island of Java to Natuna.
Under the plan, the government would move about 400 wooden boats of 30 tonnes or more to Natuna by the end of October. Fishermen who go could get subsidized housing, while the island’s ports, power supply and internet will be upgraded.
The program is expected to boost fishing in Natuna waters from 9.3 percent of sustainable catchment levels to 40 percent in less than a year.
“We will build cold storage there. We hope this will become the biggest fish market in Southeast Asia,” Ramli said.
Ramli, who also oversees energy as part of his portfolio, said he also would review oil and gas concessions in Natuna and revoke permits from companies that are not developing their blocks.
ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and PTT Exploration and Production are among foreign oil companies with stakes in Natuna, which holds one of the world’s largest untapped gas reserves.
Indonesia’s foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, said no one wanted conflict in the South China Sea and she called on all parties to avoid raising tension.
“We are sure that if all sides respect international law, then it will be easier to achieve regional and global peace and stability,” she told reporters.
(Writing by Randy Fabi; Editing by Robert Birsel)
Source: Reuters “Indonesia hopes fishermen can net its South China Sea claims”
The Indonesian president will travel to the Natuna Islands for the first time on Thursday to assert Indonesia’s sovereignty, a senior official said, after China said earlier this week it had an “overlapping claim” over nearby waters.
Beijing said on Monday that waters near the Natuna Islands were subject to overlapping claims on “maritime rights and interests” between China and Indonesia.
Indonesia’s foreign minister on Wednesday rejected China’s stance, saying the waters were in Indonesian territory.
“Our position is clear that claims can only be made on the basis of international law. For Indonesia, we don’t have overlapping claims in any form in Indonesian waters with China,” Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi told reporters.
The chief security minister, foreign minister, and the heads of the individual military branches will accompany the president on his trip to Natuna, Cabinet Secretary Pramono Agung told reporters.
Asked the reason for the trip, he told reporters, “Natuna is the territory of Indonesia, that is final. As head of the government and the state, the president wants to ensure that Natuna is part of Indonesia’s sovereignty.”
The remote island chain has a small civilian population. Jakarta objects to Beijing’s inclusion of waters around the islands within China’s “nine-dash line”, a demarcation line used by Beijing to show its claim to the South China Sea.
Despite the objection, Indonesia is not part of a broader regional dispute over China’s reclamation activities in the South China Sea and Beijing’s claims on swathes of key waterways.
China’s Foreign Ministry said over the weekend that an Indonesian naval vessel fired on a Chinese fishing boat near the chain of islands on Friday, wounding one person.
Indonesia’s navy responded that it had fired warning shots at several boats with Chinese flags it accused of fishing illegally but that nobody had been wounded.
It was the third reported confrontation near the Natuna Islands this year and comes amid rising regional tensions over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla told Reuters on Monday the Southeast Asian nation would be more assertive in protecting its exclusive right to the waters around the Natuna Islands.
Despite this more assertive stance, Retno said relations between the two countries remained good.
“This is a matter of law enforcement, not politics,” she said.
(Addditional reporting by Jakarta bureau; Writing by Randy Fabi; Editing by Michael Perry and Raissa Kasolowsky)
Source: Reuters “Indonesian president to assert sovereignty in islands visit”
Indonesia is determined to assert its exclusive right to a corner of the South China Sea where there has been a run of skirmishes between Indonesian navy ships and Chinese vessels, the vice-president said on Monday.
Jusuf Kalla told Reuters that Indonesia would send a message to Beijing demanding that it respect the Southeast Asian nation’s sovereignty over waters around the Natuna Islands.
China’s Foreign Ministry said over the weekend that an Indonesian naval vessel fired on a Chinese fishing boat near the chain of islands on Friday, injuring one person.
Indonesia’s navy responded that it had fired warning shots at several boats with Chinese flags it accused of fishing illegally but there were no injuries.
It was the third reported confrontation near the Natuna Islands this year and comes amid rising regional tensions over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
“This is not a clash, but we are protecting the area,” Kalla said in an interview with Reuters at the presidential palace.
Asked if the Indonesian government had made a decision to be more assertive, he said: “Yes, we will continue.”
Asked about Kalla’s remarks on Monday, Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said China had expressed condemnation of the “indiscriminate use of force”.
“We urge the Indonesian side to refrain from any action that complicates or magnifies the dispute, or impacts the peace and stability of the region,” Hua said.
Indonesia is not part of a broader regional dispute over China’s reclamation activities in the South China Sea and Beijing’s claims on swathes of key waterways.
But Jakarta has objected to China’s inclusion of parts of the Indonesian-ruled Natuna Islands within a “nine-dash line” Beijing marks on maps to show its claim on the body of water.
China has said it does not dispute Indonesia’s sovereignty over the Natuna Islands, but Kalla said its ships sometimes claim that they have the right to operate in waters around the islands because they are “traditional Chinese fishing grounds”.
“But we are focused on the legal basis,” Kalla said, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. “We will send a message to the other side to honor the area in accordance with the law.”
China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.
(Additional reporting by Megha Rajagopalan in BEIJING; Editing by Nick Macfie)
Source: Reuters “Indonesia vows to stand firm after skirmishes with Chinese ships”