China Stupid if It Started a Border War with India


A man walks inside a conference room used for meetings between military commanders of China and India, at the Indian side of the Indo-China border at Bumla, in the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, November 11, 2009. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi/File Photo

Reuters says in its report “India’s military steps up operational readiness on China border” yesterday that according to its sources, “India’s military has increased operational readiness along the eastern Indian border with China, sources said, as neither side shows any sign of backing off from a face-off in a remote Himalayan region near their disputed frontier.” However, the sources did not expect that the border tension would escalate into a border war.

That has been confirmed by Reuters’ other two sources, which told Reuters that “the military alert level had been raised as a matter of caution”.

India does not want to fight. It only wants to provoke China to attack it so that it can get more from the US.

China has become “iron buddy” of India’s major enemy Pakistan and is now building its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that it regards as a priority project in China’s Silk Road economic belt and 21st century maritime Silk Road (Belt and Road) initiative.

The project aims at establishing China’s secure land access to the Middle East especially the oil and gas there, but is regarded by India as a great threat to India’s security as India is sandwiched between China and Pakistan.

India’s conspicuous absence at Chinese President Xi Jinping’s grand Belt and Road meeting gave China a clear signal.

India’s counter measure to deal with its encirclement by China and Pakistan on land is to encircle China and Pakistan on the Indian Ocean, for which it needs the US and Japan as its allies.

China is far from capable enough to deal with the combined navies of the US, Japan and India. It has to develop aerospace bombers to wipe out such navy and dominate the ocean. That takes time.

Even if China is strong enough, it shall not have enemy in its neighborhood. It has to win over Japan by making it believe that China will not retaliate Japanese invasion.

It shall also convince India that China want to be its friend.

China has even been able to turn its long-term enemy Russia into its close ally. Why shall China not be able to win over India?

In fact, India may get lots of benefit from its friendly relations with China. What can India get from the US? US protectionism will make India’s export of elite labor and cheap goods hard since the US is now making efforts to bring jobs back. Protectionism will keep on growing as the US keeps on declining.

True, India may obtain advanced weapons from the US to deal with China, but US weapons are so expensive!

Strategic Goal

A modern war is fought for achieving a political goal which we regard as the strategic goal of a war. A country is a loser in the war if it wins the war without attaining its strategic goal but it is the winner if it attains its strategic goal even though it loses the war.

From that we see Indian Prime Minister Modi’s shrewdness. He knows well that India army is no match to Chinese army but he provoked China to fight and win a war with India so that he may attain the goal of developing close alliance with the US and Japan to counter-encircle China and Pakistan in the Indian Ocean.

China’s strategic goal must be resolution of its border dispute with India to turn India into its friend instead of enemy. China has been making great efforts in doing so. What can China attain even if it wins a border war with India now? It will turn India into its dead enemy if the war is a large-scale one like the countless border wars between France and Germany that gave rise to the two world wars.

France and Germany are finally wise enough to become allies in establishing the EU. Why shall China and India not learn from their wise examples?

Therefore, we can foresee no war but a few small-scale skirmishes in the border. After all the area of standoff is so small that cannot be the battleground for a war with some scale.

China and Russia have succeeded in attracting both India and Pakistan into their Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China shall make great efforts in putting an end to the enmity between India and Pakistan and resolving border disputes with India within SCO with Russia’s help. That is the wise strategic goal China must attain but impossible through a war.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, full text of which is reblogged below:

India’s military steps up operational readiness on China border

Sanjeev Miglani August 11, 2017 / 8:36 PM

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s military has increased operational readiness along the eastern Indian border with China, sources said, as neither side shows any sign of backing off from a face-off in a remote Himalayan region near their disputed frontier.

Indian and Chinese troops have been embroiled in the seven-week confrontation on the Doklam plateau, claimed by both China and India’s tiny ally, Bhutan.

The sources, who were briefed on the deployment, said they did not expect the tensions, involving about 300 soldiers on each side standing a few hundred feet apart, to escalate into a conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors, who fought a brief but bloody border war in 1962.

But the military alert level had been raised as a matter of caution, two sources in New Delhi and in the eastern state of Sikkim told Reuters on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The crisis began in June when a Chinese construction crew was found to be trying to extend a road in the Doklam region that both China and the mountainous nation of Bhutan claim as theirs.

India, which has special ties with Bhutan, sent its troops to stop the construction, igniting anger in Beijing which said New Delhi had no business to intervene, and demanded a unilateral troop withdrawal.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, though, has dug in its heels and said that the Chinese road activity in the region near the borders of India, Bhutan and China was a threat to the security of its own northeast region.

“The army has moved to a state that is called ‘no war, no peace’,” one of the sources said. Under the order issued to all troop formations in the eastern command a week ago, soldiers are supposed take up positions that are earmarked for them in the event of a war, the source said.

Each year, Indian troop formations deployed on the border go on such an “operational alert” usually in September and October. But this year the activity has been advanced in the eastern sector, the source in Sikkim, above which lies the area of the current standoff, said.

“Its out of caution. It has been done because of the situation,” the source said. But the source stressed there was no additional force deployment and that the area was well defended.

The move comes as diplomatic efforts to break the stalemate failed to make headway, other sources with close ties to the Modi government told Reuters earlier in the week.

China has repeatedly warned of an escalation if India did not order its troops back. The state-controlled Global Times which has kept a barrage of hostile commentary said this week that if Modi continued the present course in the border, Beijing would have to take “counter-measures”.

Ties between the neighbors have been souring over China’s military assistance to India’s arch rival Pakistan and its expanding presence in smaller nations in South Asia which New Delhi long regarded as its area of influence.

China has criticized the Modi government’s public embrace of the Dalai Lama and its decision to let the Tibetan spiritual leader, whom it regards as a “dangerous splittist”, to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh which China claims as its own.

China has also frowned at India’s expanding military ties with the United States as well as Japan.

Additional reporting by Zarir Hussain in GUWAHATI; Editing by Nick Macfie

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With South China Sea, US Can Do Nothing but Making Some Noise Now


U.S. State Secretary Rex Tillerson, left, passes by the table of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the start of the 7th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and its dialogue partners as part of the 50th ASEAN Ministerial Meetings in Manila, Philippines August 7, 2017.Aaron Favila/Pool

In spite of some hardline stance by US Congress and military, the US is no longer able to affect the affairs in the South China Sea except making some noise that is disregarded by the parties concerned, ASEAN and China as they have been making progress in concluding their code of conduct in disregard of US stance or opinions. As a result, Reuters shows in its report today titled “Australia, Japan, U.S. call for South China Sea code to be legally binding” how desperate US and its allies Australia and Japan are. They issued a joint statement on what they want to be included in the code but the statement was denounced by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and ignored by ASEAN.

Reuters says that Wang described the “sharp contrast” in perceptions this year between regional and non-regional countries as reflected by the statement by Japan, the United States and Australia.

It quotes Wang as saying that Coastal countries had “fully recognized the progress we have made through concerted efforts from all parties. On the other hand, some non-regional countries remain in the past … They are not recognizing the positive changes occurring in the South China Sea. Is it that some countries do not want to see greater stability in the South China Sea?”

For a time, the US tried to act as a world police to enforce the law of the sea not binding on it as it is not a signatory. It sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to scare China in vain. Now, what it can do is but to make some noise.

The photo on top shows how unhappy US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was at the affairs in the South China Sea. Tillerson once said that the US shall block China’s access to its artificial islands but later realized that the US simply lacks the capabilities to do so.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, which is reblogged below:

Australia, Japan, U.S. call for South China Sea code to be legally binding

Manuel Mogato and Christian Shepherd August 7, 2017 / 4:29 PM

MANILA (Reuters) – Australia, Japan and the United States on Monday urged Southeast Asia and China to ensure that a South China Sea code of conduct they have committed to draw up will be legally binding and said they strongly opposed “coercive unilateral actions”.

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China should establish a set of rules that were “legally binding, meaningful, effective, and consistent with international law”, the foreign ministers of the three countries said in a statement following a meeting in Manila.

Foreign ministers of ASEAN and China on Sunday adopted a negotiating framework for a code of conduct, a move they hailed as progress but seen by critics as a tactic to buy China time to consolidate its maritime power.

Australia, Japan and the United States also “voiced their strong opposition to coercive unilateral actions that could alter the status quo and increase tensions”.

They urged claimants to refrain from land reclamation, construction of outposts and militarization of disputed features, a veiled reference to China’s expansion of its defense capability on Mischief, Fiery Cross and Subi reefs in the Spratly archipelago.
The three countries are not claimants but have long been vocal on the issue, arguing their interest is in ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight.

They urged China and the Philippines to abide by last year’s international arbitration ruling, which invalidated China’s claim to almost the entire South China Sea, where more than $3 trillion worth of sea-borne goods passes every year.

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have competing claims there.

The code framework is an outline for what China and ASEAN call “consultations” on a formal agreement, which could start later this year.

Several ASEAN countries want the code to be legally binding, enforceable and have a dispute resolution mechanism. But experts say China will not allow that and ASEAN may end up acquiescing to what amounts to a gentlemen’s agreement.

SHARP CONTRAST

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said there was a “sharp contrast” in perceptions this year between regional and non-regional countries, and the statement by Japan, the United States and Australia showed that.

Coastal countries had “fully recognized the progress we have made through concerted efforts from all parties”, he said.

“On the other hand, some non-regional countries remain in the past … They are not recognizing the positive changes occurring in the South China Sea.

“Is it that some countries do not want to see greater stability in the South China Sea?” he asked.

Singapore’s foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishnan, said on Sunday it was premature to conclude the outcome of the negotiations, but added: “Surely when we move into the COC, it has got to have some additional or significant legal effect.”

Jay Batongbacal, an expert on the South China Sea at the University of the Philippines, told news channel ANC the adoption of the framework gave China “the absolute upper hand” in terms of strategy, because it will be able to decide when the negotiating process can start.

China also called out “some countries” who voiced concern over island reclamation in the South China Sea in the joint communique issued by ASEAN members on Sunday.

“In reality it was only one or two country’s foreign ministers who expressed concerns of this kind,” Wang told reporters.

Wang said that China had not carried out reclamation for two years. “At this time, if you ask who is carrying out reclamation, it is definitely not China – perhaps it is the country that brings up the issue that is doing it,” he added.

Several ASEAN diplomats told Reuters that Vietnam was one country that had pushed for stronger wording in the statement. Satellite images have shown that Vietnam has carried out reclamation work in two sites in the disputed seas in recent years.

Additional reporting by Martin Petty; Editing by Nick Macfie and Pritha Sarkar


China air force says to continue with flight drills at sea: CCTV


SHANGHAI (Reuters) – The Chinese air force will keep conducting drills at sea regardless of whatever interference it may encounter, China’s state broadcaster reported, following reports that Chinese warplanes flew near Japan and Taiwan in recent days.

“The air force’s distant sea training has become normal, systemic and practical,” China Central Television quoted air force spokesman Shen Jinke late on Thursday as saying.

The operations “have faced and dealt with a variety of forms of interference and obstruction, but no matter the obstruction we will carry on just as in the past,” Shen said.

“No matter who shadows us we will fly often and frequently,” he said, adding that the flights were legal and reasonable.

The air force said on its microblog earlier this month its planes had recently flown through both the Miyako Strait – which lies between two southern Japanese islands – and the Bashi Channel that separates Taiwan and the Philippines.

China’s long-range flight drills at sea, which started three years ago, were not targeted at any specific country or region, Shen was quoted as saying.

But the flights have raised concern among China’s neighbors.

On Tuesday, Taiwan’s defense ministry responded to a series of recent flybys by Chinese fighter and reconnaissance aircraft, saying the self-governed island was prepared to defend itself against China.

Beijing claims Taiwan as a part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, warning that any moves towards formal independence could prompt an armed response.

Japan’s air force regularly scrambles jets to monitor and chase away nearby Chinese military planes, fearing that China’s probing of its air defenses is part of a push to extend its military influence in the East China Sea and western Pacific, where Japan controls an island chain stretching 1,400 km (870 miles) south towards Taiwan.

Reporting by John Ruwitch; Editing by Michael Perry

Source: Reuters “China air force says to continue with flight drills at sea: CCTV”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


‘Get used to it’ China says as it flies bombers near Japan


BEIJING (Reuters) – China told Japan on Friday to “get used to it” after it flew six warplanes over the Miyako Strait between two southern Japanese islands in a military exercise.

Japan’s defense ministry issued a statement late on Thursday describing the flyover by the formation of Xian H-6 bombers earlier that day as “unusual”, while noting that there had been no violation of Japanese airspace.

The Chinese navy and air force have in recent months carried out a series of exercises in the Western Pacific, as they hone their ability to operate far from their home shores.

The Chinese defense ministry said it was “legal and proper” for its military aircraft to operate in the airspace and that it would continue to organize regular training exercises according to “mission requirements”.

“The relevant side should not make a fuss about nothing or over-interpret, it will be fine once they get used to it,” the ministry said in a statement.

The Miyako Strait is between Japan’s islands of Miyako and Okinawa, to the northeast of self-ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its own.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said on Thursday the Chinese bombers flew just outside its air defense identification zone and that it had “closely followed” the movements.

Reporting by Philip Wen; Additional reporting by Linda Seig in Tokyo

Source: Reuters “’Get used to it’ China says as it flies bombers near Japan”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


China’s Coast Guard Fleet Patrols Close around Disputed Islands with Japan


Mil.huanqiu.com says in its report on July 10 that China’s coast guard fleet consisting of Coast Guard Ships nos. 2307, 2502, 2166 and 2302 patrolled the territorial waters for two consecutive days from July 9 to 10.

Japan protested as usual but China repeated its reply as usual that the disputed Diaoyu Islands belong to China and China was conducting patrols of its own territorial waters.

Source: mil.huanqiu.com “China’s coast guard fleet patrols China’s territorial waters around the Diaoyu Islands for two consecutive days” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)


China’s Xi urges Japan to put aside ‘distractions’ in relations


Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen during a working session at the G20 leaders summit in Hamburg, Germany July 8, 2017. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay

Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Saturday to put aside “distractions” that have strained bilateral ties and warned that China was unwilling to compromise on Taiwan, state news agency Xinhua said.

Relations have been complicated for decades by the legacy of Japan’s wartime aggression.

Self-ruled Taiwan, which is claimed by China and was governed by Japan from 1895-1945, is another sensitive issue, and a maritime territorial dispute over small islands in the East China Sea has deepened mutual suspicion in recent years.

Beijing complained to Tokyo in March after a Japanese minister visited Taiwan, and China has also told Japan not to get involved in the dispute over the South China Sea.

Meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in the German city of Hamburg, Xi told Abe the countries were important neighbors, and said the healthy development of relations was of importance to the rest of the world, Xinhua said.

Xi urged Japan to learn from history so as to have a “better future” in its ties with China, the report added.

“Noting that the China-Japan ties have been distracted by complicated factors despite some positive exchanges between the two sides, the Chinese leader said there is no room for compromise on the issues related to history and Taiwan, and Japan shall honor its words in these respects,” Xinhua said.

Adding to long-standing tensions, China said last month a Japanese citizen was being investigated for harming national security, following a similar case in May in which China said six Japanese were being questioned on suspicion of illegal activity.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Helen Popper)

Source: Reuters “China’s Xi urges Japan to put aside ‘distractions’ in relations”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.


Japan, South Korea, U.S. demand greater Chinese effort on N.Korea


North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reacts with scientists and technicians of the DPRK Academy of Defence Science after the test-launch of the intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-14 in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang July, 5, 2017. KCNA/via REUTERS

Japan, the United States and South Korea agreed on Thursday to push for China to play a larger role in reining in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, a Japanese official said on the eve of a summit of the Group of 20 economic powers.

North Korea’s launch this week of what it said was a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile dramatically raised the stakes in the long-running battle to contain the isolated country’s nuclear weapons program.

“North Korea now constitutes a new level of threat to Japan and a clear provocation to Japan and also to the international community,” said Norio Maruyama, Japanese foreign ministry spokesman, after a meeting of the three countries’ leaders.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-In agreed at the meeting to cooperate closely to encourage China to “play an even greater role” in containing its southern neighbor.

“We had very vivid conversation on the subject and the role of China was very important” during the 75-minute meeting, Maruyama said, adding that Japan was closely monitoring Chinese companies it suspected of having links to North Korea’s weapons program.
“Abe conveyed Japan’s appreciation for the sanctions the U.S. decided to impose on Chinese organizations,” he said. “The Japanese government has been monitoring the movements of Chinese companies with deep ties to North Korea and responding appropriately” by imposing asset freezes.

Asked whether any military action was discussed, he said: “There is no discussion about the specificity of other measures we could take”.

(Reporting by Thomas Escritt and Paul Carrel; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Source: Reuters “Japan, South Korea, U.S. demand greater Chinese effort on N.Korea”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.