KMT Reform Will Make Peaceful Reunification of China Impossible


Taiwan News’ article “Beijing fails to congratulate Taiwan KMT’s new chairman” yesterday speculates the reason for the breaking of the convention to congratulate the election of KMT’s new chairman. The failure to congratulate may mean that Beijing is unhappy that KMT may abandon the “1992 Consensus” that Beijing regards as the basis for peaceful reunification with Taiwan.

KMT abandons the consensus as it has to win over Taiwan’s young voters who tend to advocate independence. This trend will grow if Taiwan remains separate from China.

That being the case, arms reunification will be the only alternative. The Chinese Communist Party will never allow Taiwan’s separation from China to be permanent as it will be very unpopular among Mainland people and will make it a criminal in Chinese history.

For thousands of years, China is a united country. I was split occasionally for some time but was always reunited ultimately.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Taiwan News’ article, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3893545.


China steps up pressure on Taiwan ahead of president’s inauguration


Police escort a group of people wanted for suspected fraud in China, after they were deported from Kenya, as they get off a plane after arriving at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China, April 13, 2016. Xinhua/Yin Gang/via Reuters/File photo

Police escort a group of people wanted for suspected fraud in China, after they were deported from Kenya, as they get off a plane after arriving at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China, April 13, 2016. Xinhua/Yin Gang/via Reuters/File photo

China is stepping up pressure on self-ruled Taiwan a month ahead of the inauguration of a president from a pro-independence party Beijing distrusts, signaling a rocky start for the leader of the island elected on a wave of anti-China sentiment.

In the past few weeks, China has established ties with former Taiwan ally Gambia, sent a top general to inspect troops based in a frontline province and scooped up dozens of Taiwanese from Kenya wanted in China for fraud – a move denounced by Taipei as being more about politics than crime.

And Taiwan said a hotline meant to expedite direct communication between the top government officials dealing with each other’s affairs had not been answered by China twice at critical times of late.

China regards Taiwan as a wayward province to be taken back by force if necessary and wants the new government to stick to the “one China” policy agreed upon with the outgoing China-friendly Nationalist government.

Only 22 countries recognize Taiwan as the “Republic of China”, with most, including Kenya, having diplomatic relations with the “People’s Republic of China”, with its leaders in Beijing.

Taiwan is one of China’s most sensitive political issues, and a core concern for the Communist Party, trumping even Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.

Since Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party won Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections by a landslide in January, Beijing has repeatedly warned it will be watching closely what she does. Tsai takes office on May 20.

At risk are ties that had warmed considerably when Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalists was elected Taiwan president in 2008, ushering in regular high-level exchanges and overseeing the signing of a series of landmark economic deals.

China’s Communist Party-controlled state media has not minced its words about what is at stake.

Chen Qinhao, a Taiwan expert at Beijing’s elite Tsinghua University, wrote in the official People’s Daily this week that Tsai risks ending lines of communication between China and Taiwan if she does not explain her policy on China.

“It won’t be a matter of there being a ‘high season’ or a ‘low season’ in cross-Taiwan Strait relations,” Chen wrote. “When it comes to the authoritative consultation mechanisms between the two sides, I fear it will totally shut down.”

In Taipei, officials are reading the tea leaves, too.

The island’s normally secretive top security agency said the Gambia move was to pressure Tsai to “fall in line with China’s expectations” once in office.

Throughout, Tsai, who has said she wants peace with China and to maintain the status quo, has spoken only via her Facebook or through her party.

“Beijing has no right to represent us on matters involving the deportation of Taiwanese,” she wrote on Facebook last week about the forcible deportation of Taiwan nationals to China from Kenya, even as her top national security adviser called China’s move “completely unhelpful” for ties between the two sides.

“DELIBERATE INDIFFERENCE”?

Taiwan says China has at times been deliberately avoiding talks.

China’s most senior official in charge of Taiwan affairs was not in his office when Taipei scrambled to raise Zhang Zhijun in March about the Gambia case on a hotline set up to expedite communication between the two sides.

It took at least two days before a call could be connected last week about the Kenya matter, according to Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council.

“What is this? Deliberate indifference,” said DPP senior Liu Shyh-fang.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to a request for comment.

China, for its part, has been incensed by the uproar over the telecoms fraud cases, saying they are simply a criminal matter.

China accused Taiwan over the weekend of disregarding Chinese victims in a case in Malaysia involving Taiwanese suspects after they were freed upon their arrival back in Taiwan. Taipei said it did not have enough evidence to detain the individuals.

Some of the attacks in Chinese state media about the telecoms fraud cases have been deeply personal, even if Tsai was not directly named.

The People’s Daily, in a front page commentary in its overseas edition on Tuesday, lambasted “certain representatives of popular will who sit idly by on their high salaries and votes they’ve won” to portray themselves as saviors and heroes rather than thinking about fighting crime.

Beijing wants Tsai to clearly state what her policy is on relations with China, but she is keeping quiet.

In the background, China’s military lurks.

Xu Qiliang, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission which runs China’s military, last week visited Fujian province, which lies opposite Taiwan, urging troops to strengthen efforts to form strong armed forces.

Last month, the military commemorated a key but little-known victory against Nationalist forces following their fleeing to Taiwan in 1949 at the end of the Chinese civil war, in a reminder China’s military still considers the island one of its strategic priorities.

“We must shout out the words ‘reunify Taiwan’,” Wang Hongguang, a lieutenant general and former deputy commander of China’s Nanjing military region, wrote in an online commentary last month.

(Editing by Nick Macfie)

Source: Reuters “China steps up pressure on Taiwan ahead of president’s inauguration”


China: No Optimistic Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations


The landslide victory of pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in recent Taiwan presidential and parliament elections has given rise to worries about possible tension across Taiwan Strait. Now, according to Reuters report “Taiwan angers China by releasing 20 deported telecom fraud suspects”, not only the pro-independence DPP but also the pro-Beijing KMT that will remain in power till May, is doing something to anger Beijing. There seems to be no optimistic prospects for Cross-strait relations.

Comments by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters report “Taiwan angers China by releasing 20 deported telecom fraud suspects”, full text of which is set forth below:

Taiwan angers China by releasing 20 deported telecom fraud suspects

Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:53pm EDT

Taiwan angered Beijing on Saturday by freeing 20 suspects in a telecom fraud case linked to China that has put more pressure on the sensitive relationship between the two countries.

Malaysia had deported the 20 people, who were part of a group of 53 Taiwanese arrested there in March on suspicion of fraud, according to the Taipei foreign ministry.

Taiwan’s Executive Yuan spokesman Sun Lih-chyun told Reuters there was no legal reason to detain them.

“The evidence is not with us. It is with China,” he said, noting that Taipei has been talking to Chinese counterparts on the matter so investigations can begin on the self-ruled island.

The decision was not welcomed by China.

“By releasing the suspects, Taiwan authorities disregarded many victims’ interests and harmed them a second time. It also harmed the two sides’ cooperation in jointly cracking down on crimes,” state-run Xinhua quoted An Fengshan, the Chinese State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman, as saying.

Taiwan should give the suspects “the punishment they deserve”, An was quoted by the news agency as saying.

In a statement issued Saturday, Taiwan’s cabinet said that the government would not shield people suspected of crime and that it had instructed the Ministry of Justice to gather information for investigation.

Taiwan’s justice ministry sent a formal letter requesting China’s public security bureau to provide information on the crime once it knew the 20 suspected Taiwanese were returning to Taiwan from Malaysia, the statement said.

Separately, Taiwan has objected to the forcible deportation of more than 40 Taiwanese people to China from Kenya also on suspicion of telecom fraud.

China’s Ministry of Public Security says Taiwanese people have been heavily involved in telecom fraud in China and had caused huge losses, with some victims killing themselves.

Taiwanese criminals “have been falsely presenting themselves as law enforcement officers to extort money from people on the Chinese mainland through telephone calls”, its has said.

(Reporting by John Ruwitch in SHANGHAI and J.R. Wu in TAIPEI; Editing by Louise Ireland)


China May Take Taiwan by Military Force Soon


An emotional Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen thanks her supporters after her election victory at party headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

An emotional Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson and presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen thanks her supporters after her election victory at party headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan January 16, 2016. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

In its report “Don’t read too much into military drills, China says after Taiwan alarm”, Reuters says that soon after Chinese official TV media CCTV broadcasted footage of Chinese military’s live ammunition landing drill, the Chinese Defense Ministry tried to reduce the impact of the CCTV footage. Reuters quotes the Ministry as saying in a two-sentence statement faxed to it as saying, “The relevant media report is a summary of training maneuvers organized last year by troops. There is no need to over-interpret them.”

Taiwan’s defense ministry says that the drill was not carried out recently after pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s election victory and that it knows the drill well.

However, the threat of reunification by military force is not in the drill itself but in the timing of the broadcast. It was made soon after Taiwan’s DPP’s recent victory in presidential and parliamentary elections. It first aimed at easing domestic worry that with its election victory, DPP may pursue Taiwan independence as an overwhelming majority of mainland Chinese regards Taiwan independence as utterly unacceptable.

Taiwan youngsters, however, are proud of their democracy and regard mainland Chinese regime as a threat to their democracy.

The recent meeting between PRC President Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou of the pro-Beijing KMT might have begun the political negotiation between Beijing and Taipei for a peace treaty and even peaceful reunification under the “one country, two systems” arrangement for Taiwan to keep its democracy intact. However, KMT losing the election to DPP has made such negotiation impossible.

Beijing has been attracting talents and capital from Hong Kong and Taiwan to make them depend on mainland China so that Hong Kong and Taiwanese peoples shall be aware that without mainland China, there will be serious problems in their economy. However, youngsters are idealists. They just do not care.

Since Hong Kong youngsters’ failure to obtain the democracy they want in Hong Kong by their Umbrella Campaign, Hong Kong youngsters have begun to vent their indignation against Beijing authority at the tourists from mainland China, whose spending has made significant contribution to Hong Kong’s prosperity. Some Hong Kong youngsters advocate Hong Kong independence. That tells mainland Chinese authority and people that time is not on their side.

According to Reuters, a Taiwanese military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the broadcast may be “psychological warfare” warning the new Taiwan government to tread carefully.

It is not just a warning. DPP’s overwhelming victory is mainly due to the participation of the election by lots of Taiwanese youngsters who have grown up and been qualified for election. The more youngsters grown up the greater tendency of independence in Taiwan; therefore, the chance of the pro-Beijing KMT returning to power is quite small in the future. The earlier China take military action the less the resistance as most Taiwanese still regard themselves as Chinese now. When most Taiwanese regard themselves as Taiwanese instead of Chinese, the resistance will be much stronger.

Moreover, the US has not yet transfer 10% more of its military force to Asia as it plans for its pivot to Asia. If the US has strengthened its military in Asia later, US military interference will be stronger.

PRC leaders are wise now. They certainly know that they have to take Taiwan by military force the earlier the better if there is no hope for peaceful reunification. Moreover, success in the attack will make them very popular in mainland China due to the strong nationalism there.

What they need is only a good excuse that Taiwan is pursuing independence. With such an excuse, they will encounter less trouble in the world by their military action.

Therefore, Taiwan’s new president Tsai Ing-wen should be very careful to refrain from giving Beijing any impression that she is pursuing independence.

Don’t read too much into military drills? Better read as much as possible. Taiwan leaders must be very careful to avoid military attack. China follows its talented strategist Sun Tzu’s teachings “The art of war is an art of deception. Show that you are not capable when you are and that you do not want to fight when you want.” China’s military action to take Taiwan will certainly be a surprise.

The following is the full text of Reuters’ report:

Don’t read too much into military drills, China says after Taiwan alarm

BEIJING Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:21am EST

China’s Defence Ministry said on Friday people shouldn’t read too much into a state media broadcast of live-fire military and landing drills, just days after a landslide election win by an independence-leaning opposition party in Taiwan.

The self-ruled island expressed serious concern on Thursday over the mainland’s broadcast. Its defense ministry confirmed China recently carried out “winter exercises”, but said that the pictures in the video were archive clips spliced together of drills conducted in 2015.

China considers Taiwan a wayward province, to be brought under its control by force if necessary. Defeated Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan in 1949 after the Chinese civil war.

“The relevant media report is a summary of training maneuvers organized last year by troops. There is no need to over-interpret them,” China’s Defence Ministry said in a two-sentence statement faxed to Reuters.

Late on Wednesday, Chinese state television said the 31st Group Army, based in China’s southeastern city of Xiamen, opposite Taiwan, had carried out the drills in “recent days”, but it did not give an exact location.

The channel broadcast images of amphibious armored vehicles ploughing through the sea towards a landing site, helicopters firing missiles at shore locations and soldiers parachuting down from helicopters.

The report made no direct mention of the Taiwan election, but a Taiwanese military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the broadcast may be “psychological warfare” warning the new Taiwan government to tread carefully.

Since Saturday’s landslide win by Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections, China has warned against any moves towards independence and said it will defend the country’s sovereignty.

The United States has expressed concerns about the danger of worsening China-Taiwan ties, at a time when China’s navy is increasingly flexing its muscles in the South China and East China Seas and expanding territorial claims.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken met the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office Minister, Zhang Zhijun, in Beijing on Thursday and “reiterated the United States’ abiding interest in continued cross-Strait peace and stability‎”, the State Department said in an email.

Taiwan’s military has warned that China has practised attacks on targets modeled on places in Taiwan. Taiwan also estimates China aims hundreds of missiles at the island.

(Reporting by Michael Martina and Ben Blanchard)


China’s Carrot and Stick in Dealing with Taiwan


Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou wave to photographers as they enter the room at the Shangri-la Hotel where they are to meet, in Singapore November 7, 2015. REUTERS/Joseph Nair

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou wave to photographers as they enter the room at the Shangri-la Hotel where they are to meet, in Singapore November 7, 2015. REUTERS/Joseph Nair

Reuters quotes Tsai Ing-wen, leader of Taiwan’s independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), as saying “Only the majority public opinion on Jan. 16 can decide Taiwan’s future and cross-strait relations” referring to ties with the mainland.

However the majority public opinion can decide everything about Taiwan’s future except Taiwan’s independence as China will never allow that.

Reuters says, “In 1996, then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin ordered missile tests and war games in the seas around Taiwan to try to intimidate voters not to back Lee Teng-hui, who China believed was moving the island closer to formal independence. Lee won by a landslide.” But it fails to mention that at that time the U.S. sent two aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Strait to support Taiwan and at that time China was much weaker than it is now. Its fighter jets were by far inferior to those from U.S. aircraft carriers.

In order to have the strength to take over Taiwan by force, China has since then developed its DF-21D ballistic and YJ-18 cruise anti-ship missiles to ensure killing of U.S. aircraft carriers within their range. If there is a war between China and Taiwan, the U.S. now has to tell its aircraft carrier battle groups to withdraw from the 1,500 km range of such aircraft carrier killers let alone coming into the Taiwan Strait to protect Taiwan.

Therefore, Tsai may win the election and become Taiwan president but she will never dare to pursue independence. Therefore, what China fears is not Tsai or her DPP but Taiwan’s younger generation who strongly advocates Taiwan independence.

Taiwan’s current president Ma Ying-jeou is wise to see the possibility of China’s military takeover of Taiwan in the future; therefore, he has worked hard to seek a peace treaty with China. Even though his term would end soon, he has still worked hard and finally achieved a meeting with Chinese leader after two years of great efforts. However, as always, talents are not understood by most common people. Most Taiwanese youngsters believe that they have the right of self-determination. No, they do not have such right. The Taiwan issue is regarded by China as a domestic instead of international issue. The war to take over Taiwan is regarded by it as the continuance of China’s civil war.

China wants to keep Taiwan as a part of it and allow it to have a high degree of autonomy. That is why Chinese President Xi Jinping was so amicable in meeting Ma and treating his as his equal. That is the carrot.

On the other hand, China is developing aircraft carrier killers to prevent U.S. intervention and has built huge amphibious warships and powerful rocket artillery for taking Taiwan by force if necessary.

The construction of a building similar to the palace of Taiwanese president and the military drill to attack and take the building at China’s Zhurihe military drill base clearly shows China’s stick in dealing with Taiwan.

Only the U.S. is powerful enough to interfere, but it has made clear that it will not support Taiwan independence.

For China, it will be the best timing for it to take Taiwan by force when Tsai has won the election and made some statement that gives the impression that she advocates independence.

The U.S. is at its weakest point now and being harassed by problems in Europe and the Middle East. The public opinion that supports Taiwan independence is not very strong now but will grow when more youngsters have grown up.

Chinese military is used to conduct surprise attack. Xi’s waving of olive branch now will give the best surprise. I am really worried that China may conduct surprise attack at Taiwan after Tsai has won the election and begins to confront China.

Chan Kai Yee’s comments on Reuters’ report.

The following is the full text of Reuters’ report:

Taiwan opposition says only democracy can decide future

TAIPEI/BEIJING By Faith Hung and Ben Blanchard Nov 8, 2015 3:03am EST

Only the people of Taiwan can decide its future and will do so in elections in January, the island’s opposition leader and presidential frontrunner said on Sunday, as China’s top newspaper warned peace was at risk if it opted for independence.

A day after Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou held historic talks in Singapore, Tsai Ing-wen, leader of Taiwan’s independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), said the leaders’ meeting had done nothing to make Taiwan’s people feel safer.

“Only the majority public opinion on Jan. 16 can decide Taiwan’s future and cross-strait relations,” Tsai wrote, referring to ties with the mainland.

At the meeting in neutral Singapore, the first get-together of leaders of the two sides since China’s civil war ended in 1949, Xi told Ma they must not let proponents of Taiwan’s independence split them.

Ma in return called for mutual respect for each other’s systems and said Taiwan people were concerned about mainland missiles pointing their way.

Tsai said Ma’s performance had angered many people in Taiwan, and what he did was not a representation of mainstream public opinion.

“As a nation’s leader, President Ma did not make his people proud or feel safe. Instead, he created more anxiety,” she wrote.

China’s Nationalists, also known as the Kuomintang (KMT), retreated to Taiwan after losing the civil war to the Communists, who are still in charge in Beijing. Both agree there is “one China” but agree to disagree on the interpretation.

Beijing views self-ruled and proudly democratic Taiwan as a renegade province, to be bought under its control by force if necessary, and has warned that moves towards formal independence could stoke conflict.

Speaking to reporters on the flight back to Taipei late on Saturday, Ma said while he was not satisfied with Xi’s response on security and military issues, at least a dialogue had now begun.

“This gathering today, if you want to speak about achievements, the most important achievement is that the leaders across the Taiwan Strait finally met and were willing to discuss related issues,” he said.

‘FIERCE AND FRIGHTENING’

In a commentary, the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily said the two leaders sitting together showed a desire not to let the “tragedy of history” repeat itself nor to let the fruits of peaceful development be lost.

Progress over the past seven years – referring to the rule of the China-friendly Ma – has been possible due to a joint political will to oppose Taiwan independence and accept there is “one China”, albeit it with different interpretations, the paper said.

“If this ‘magic cudgel’ did not exist, the boat of peace would encounter a fierce and frightening storm, or even flip over completely,” it wrote.

“Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait must join together and resolutely oppose the Taiwan independence forces and their separatist activities,” the newspaper added.

While bilateral trade, investment and tourism have blossomed – particularly since Ma and his KMT took power in 2008 – there is deep suspicion on both sides and no progress has been made on any sort of political settlement.

One source with ties to the leadership in Beijing said China was not counting on the meeting to help the Nationalists win the presidential elections, but hoped it would at least prevent them from disintegrating.

“If the DPP controls the legislature and amended the constitution (formally) declaring independence, the mainland would be in a very difficult position,” the source said.

In 2005, China enacted an “anti-secession law” that allows it to use force on Taiwan if deemed necessary.

Previous Chinese attempts to influence Taiwan’s elections have backfired.

In 1996, then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin ordered missile tests and war games in the seas around Taiwan to try to intimidate voters not to back Lee Teng-hui, who China believed was moving the island closer to formal independence. Lee won by a landslide.

(Additional reporting by Benjmain Kang Lim in Beijing and J.R. Wu in Taipei; Editing by Robert Birsel)


Taiwan’s Unification with China Not on Agenda but Unavoidable


Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou answers a question during an interview with Reuters at the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, October 1, 2015. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou answers a question during an interview with Reuters at the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, October 1, 2015. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang

Hong Kong’s Chief Executive is elected by an election committee controlled by the central government of China and appointed by it; therefore, naturally the chief executive advocates unification with China and opposes Hong Kong independence though there is a surge of enthusiasm for independence among young people due to their failure in fighting for democracy last year. However, Hong Kong independence is utterly impossible as the central government may take whatever measures even military one to prevent it.

That is not the case with Taiwan as Taiwan independence is a fact. It is something for Taiwan to defend instead something to fight for. Taiwan is governed by a government led by a president elected independently by Taiwanese people free from mainland Chinese intervention.

True Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeau’s party, the KMT, advocates closer ties with mainland China but its aim is not some real unification but to be benefited as much as possible by the closer ties. It, in addition, wants a peace treaty with mainland China to avoid military attack by mainland China. That proves Ma’s vision. He knows that reunification with the mainland is unavoidable as proved by China’s thousands years of history. The obstacle to reunification is not Taiwanese people’s opposition but U.S. intervention. However, the U.S. is declining while mainland China is rising. When the U.S. is not strong enough to interfere, China will take Taiwan by force. To prevent that, Taiwan has to enter into a peace treaty with Mainland China, for which Taiwan has to make some concession such as a nominal reunification with mainland China with its de facto independence remaining unchanged.

Russia has sent troops into Ukraine to take some parts of Ukraine. It is now conducting military intervention in Syria. The U.S. has opposed loudly but can do nothing to stop Russia. Ma even has doubt whether the U.S. will indeed intervene militarily when China takes Taiwan by force now. He is clever to want to negotiate when Taiwan still has strong bargaining power due to U.S. support.

In the face of surging popular trend against unification, Ma said unification was not on agenda in his exclusive interview with Reuters in order to win votes to keep KMT in power. Ma certainly does not want true unification because if there is a true unification, Taiwan will be controlled by mainland China, a KMT will not really in power even if there is a KMT president in Taiwan.

Does KMT’s rival the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) advocated independence? It dares not. That is why its candidate for presidential election advocates maintaining the status quo instead of independence.

In spite of the surge of opposition to unification, when the DDP is in power, it will try to maintain and even tighten the relations between Taiwan and mainland China as such relations are too important for Taiwan’s economy.

I hope that Ma’s successor whether a KMT or DPP has Ma’s vision to make efforts to conclude a peace treaty with mainland China. Otherwise military reunification is unavoidable because without U.S. military support Taiwan is far from being able to resist China’s military attack no matter how many and how advanced submarines and other weapons Taiwan has acquired. Air and naval blockade alone is enough for China to subdue Taiwan.

More than a thousand years ago when Emperor Taizu of Song began military annexation of South Tang that ruled Southern China when China was split at that time, some of his protégés opposed on the ground that South Tang had committed no offenses meaning that South Tang honored its promise to be a subordinate nation to Song and paid tribute faithfully. Emperor Taizu replied, “Can I allow others sleeping soundly by the side of my bed?”

No Chinese leader will ever allow Taiwan to be independent. Full stop.

Article by Chan Kai Yee as comments on Reuters’ report.

The following is the full text of Reuters’ report:

Exclusive: Unification with China not on agenda, says Taiwan president

Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said on Thursday the island was not ready to discuss unification with China, sending a firm message to an increasingly assertive Beijing eager to absorb what it considers a renegade province.

Ma, 65, told Reuters in an exclusive interview that, though the economic and social gaps between the proudly democratic island and its giant Communist neighbour were narrowing, their political differences remained wide.

“The political situation between the two sides is still very different,” said Ma, speaking on the day China was celebrating its National Day. “I think to discuss matters, such as unification, is not very suitable. Taiwan is not ready.”

Although his eight-year presidency has been characterised by warming business ties with China, Ma, who steps down next year due to term limits, repeated how “the time was not yet ripe” for unification talks between the once bitter enemies.

His comments underscore how far Taiwan has moved from embracing China following massive protests on the island last year against a cross-strait trade pact and the weakening of Ma’s pro-China Nationalist party.

China and Taiwan have been ruled separately since defeated Nationalist forces fled to the island in 1949 after losing a civil war to the Communists.

Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring the island of 23 million people back under its control, particularly if it were to make moves towards formal independence.

“FREER THAN IN PAST”

Ma acknowledged China’s economy and society have changed dramatically in the past 30 years.

“The economy and society are freer than in the past,” he said. “Its stock markets are vibrant. This was rarely seen before.”

China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner and many Taiwanese tech companies run plants on the mainland.

Under Ma, Taiwan has signed a series of trade and economic pacts with Beijing, though there have been no political talks and suspicions persist on both sides.

In what was widely seen as a backlash against creeping dependence on China, Ma’s Nationalists were trounced in local elections last year and look on course for defeat in the 2016 presidential vote to the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The DPP says it believes only Taiwan’s people can decide its future, a stance Beijing interprets as favouring independence.

Taiwan is probably China’s most sensitive political issue, and its eventual “recovery” remains at the top of the agenda for the Communist Party.

China’s President Xi Jinping said at a regional summit in 2013 that a political solution to a stand-off over sovereignty lasting more than six decades could not be postponed forever.

Chinese special forces held mock battles at the Zhurihe training base in Inner Mongolia using a full-scale model of Taiwan’s presidential office and nearby government buildings and roads, according to a report by the Taiwanese defence ministry last month that was seen by Reuters.

The Taiwanese report added that of China’s 1.24 million-strong ground forces, 400,000 could be used in combat against the island.

SUBMARINE PLANS ON COURSE

Taiwan has budgeted T$3 billion ($91 million) for four years starting next year to kickstart the design contract phase for what will be a decades-long programme to build its own fleet of submarines.

Taiwan has four ageing submarines, including two that date from World War Two, although its military is otherwise considered generally modern.

Ma said he was “very confident” about the homegrown submarine plan and that it remained on track.

“Now we want to build our own submarines for our defence requirements. We will actively nurture some talent and hope to accelerate the pace in the future,” he said.

Crucial to Taiwan’s indigenous submarine programme is the transfer from the United States or other Western countries of submarine-manufacturing technology, a move that would be opposed by China.

Ma said that Taiwan has never ruled out the possibility of accepting help from other countries who have the technology.

U.S. weapons sales in recent years to Taiwan have attracted strong condemnation from China, but have not caused lasting damage to Beijing’s relations with either Washington or Taipei.

Under the Taiwan Relations Act, enacted in 1979 when Washington severed formal ties with the island in favour of recognising the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, the United States is obligated to help Taiwan defend itself. ($1 = 32.8430 Taiwan dollars)


Taiwan Youth Want China to Treat them Like not as a Country


Student leaders of Taiwan's "Sunflower Movement" Lin Fei-fan (R) and Chen Wei-ting talk to reporters at the Taipei District court in this March 25, 2015 file photo.   REUTERS/Pichi Chuang/Files

Student leaders of Taiwan’s “Sunflower Movement” Lin Fei-fan (R) and Chen Wei-ting talk to reporters at the Taipei District court in this March 25, 2015 file photo. REUTERS/Pichi Chuang/Files

Reuters says in its report “Taiwan youth to China: Treat us like a country”. In the report, Reuters believes that it means that those Taiwan youth wants independence. Perhaps so, but at least they are wise in their wording. They want China to treat Taiwan like instead of as a country.

What is the difference?

There is a world of difference. They know the benefits that close relations with China have brought to Taiwan and want to keep the benefits. They know that China will attack Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence and want to avoid that.

That is why Tsai Ing-wen, the president candidate of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan’s major opposition party, advocates maintaining the status quo instead pursuing independence in her electoral manifesto.

In fact, at stake is Taiwan’s democracy. As long as China respects Taiwan’s democratic political system, Taiwan will not seek independence. However, that is not a problem as China has repeatedly declared that it respects Taiwan’s political system. The youth movements show their concern whether China will honor its promise.

Therefore, no matter what extremist actions Taiwan youth will take, there will be no problem for China as the United States does not support Taiwan’s independence. Therefore, if Taiwan declares independence. China can simply bring Taiwan to its knees by blockade instead of military attacking that may cause serious damages to Taiwan.

On the other hand, if China tries to change Taiwan’s political system so as to put an end to Taiwan’s democracy, the United States will protect Taiwan with its navy that is much stronger than China’s. Moreover, China will be isolated in the world if it does so.

This blogger believes, the status quo will be maintained for a lime to come.

Article by Chan Kai Yee in response to Reuters’ report.

The following is the full text of Reuters’ report:

Taiwan youth to China: Treat us like a country
TAIPEI | By Michael Gold Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:09pm EDT

Young Taiwan activists have tied themselves up in chains, blocked mountain roads, scaled fences and thrown red paint balloons in a wave of anti-China sentiment likely to turn the island’s politics on its head in January’s presidential election.

An energetic and fast-growing youth movement, united in suspicion of economic and cultural dependence on China, is expected to sweep in a president from a party which favors independence from China, something Communist Party rulers across the narrow Taiwan Strait will never allow.

“When my generation comes of age, Taiwan’s cross-strait attitude is going to be very different,” said student movement leader Huang Yen-ju. “We want China to treat us like a country.”

China views self-ruled Taiwan as a renegade province and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control. But relations have improved in recent years.

President Ma Ying-jeou, of the pro-China Nationalist Party, has signed a series of trade and economic pacts with China, though there have been no political talks and suspicions persist on both sides, especially in proudly democratic Taiwan.

Ma leaves office in January under term-limit regulations and many youngsters are backing the candidate from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Tsai Ing-wen.

If Tsai wins, and more independence-minded parties gain control of parliament, as expected, tensions between China and Taiwan are bound to rise. Tsai is running about 10 percentage points ahead in opinion polls, but they can be inaccurate, particularly as her Nationalist Party rival has not been officially nominated and the elections are still months away.

Asked about the January election, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said recently: “We welcome any Taiwan party or person, as long as they oppose Taiwan independence.”

The trouble for China is that independence is exactly what Taiwan’s youth movement wants.

FAVORITE TACTIC

Activists in their teens and twenties have taken to the streets en masse in recent months, brandishing banners, shouting slogans, scuffling with police and attempting to force their way into government offices.

The scale and duration, while small compared to recent pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong, reflect the same fears about Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula under which Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese rule exactly 18 years ago and which Beijing has suggested as a model for Taiwan.

“Throwing paint is a favorite tactic – it sends a vivid message but isn’t hurting anyone,” said Chang Chao-lin, head of the youth delegation of the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), the most staunchly pro-independence political party on the island.

Grievances range from the opening of Chinese flight paths over Taiwan airspace, to Taiwan’s attempted entrance into the Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and to planned changes to the national curriculum. These include labeling China “the mainland” and relegating significant events in recent Taiwan history to sideshows, some students say.

In the latest outburst, Yu Teng-jay threw balloons of red paint against the wall of Taiwan’s Ministry of Education last week.

“These curriculum changes are slanted toward a Chinese view of the world,” said Yu, 18.

Beijing has proclaimed youth outreach a critical plank of reconciliation, but China’s reputation among young Taiwanese appears to be in inexorable decline.

A main plank of Ma’s administration, a pact which would have opened much of Taiwan’s service sector to mainland investment, sparked a three-week occupation of parliament by young people last year.

VOTING BEHAVIOR

The protest, dubbed the Sunflower Movement, ignited a wave of demonstrations against the Nationalists and their amity towards China.

Chang of the TSU said youth was a new focus for the party, which uses social media to organize rallies, including one against a visiting Chinese official which led to scuffles and left one man with a dislocated arm.

This upheaval is spilling over to voting behavior, pollsters say.

In local elections last year, support for pro-independence parties among 20- to 29-year-olds saw a 10 percent rise over the previous election cycle, far outstripping a comparable boost among their elders, according to Academia Sinica, a government-sponsored think tank.

The data also showed the proportion of young people calling themselves “Taiwanese” versus “Chinese” was the highest among all age brackets.

Similarly, in a hypothetical face-off between Tsai and her presumptive opponent, Nationalist and unification advocate Hung Hsiu-chu, in next year’s elections, 20- and 30-somethings support Tsai by a greater than 20 percent margin, a poll by local broadcaster TVBS showed.

Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan in 1949 at the end of the Chinese civil war with the Communists that has never formally ended, and the status of Taiwan has hung over several generations of Communist leaders without a lasting resolution.

“China clearly wants to take Taiwan, so why should we be more open toward them?” high school student Fang Xin-jie, 17, told Reuters. “It will only make us more dependent.”

(Editing by Nick Macfie)