SCMP’s report “Expect ‘deep structural change’ in ties between China and US, senior adviser says” today with the subtitle “State media commentary calling for ‘strategic confidence’ to deal with trade war pressure a clear sign Beijing expects fight to intensify, according to analysts” tells us Beijing’s determination to fight its trade war to the bitter end, but fail to indicate that CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily’s commentaries after commentaries and articles after articles aim at national mobilization of people to fight a people’s trade war with the US.
You could precisely found such commentaries and articles for mass mobilization at the beginning of Korean War, in which lots of civilians kept watching US warplanes’ destruction of the roads on hills at very cold nights to send signal to trucks to hide in caverns when US aircrafts came and lots of civilians on duty at night in caverns came out to repair road destructed and remove time bombs and obstacles dropped by US air force. CCP’s people’s war ensured the supplies for Chinese troops long away in the front to defeat much better equipped US troops.
Why did the most advanced and riches nation in the world was defeated by very poor and backward China? China had popular support that the US lacked.
Will the US repeat its failure due to sad lack of popular support? Let’s wait and see.
All analysis about economies etc. are irrelevant. As Mencius teaches us, popular support is the key factor in a war.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s report, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2161889/expect-deep-structural-change-ties-between-china-and-us.
We learnt from Washington Post’s report “Trump makes bizarre claim that tariffs will help pay down the massive U.S. debt” that Trump is happy that by tariff hikes on Chinese exports to the US the US get some income for paying down its huge debt.
The report makes clear that the tariffs will be paid by US consumers instead of Chinese exporters. As most of Chinese exports to the US are cheep goods of daily necessity, the high tariffs will mostly be paid by people with lower income.
Trump has reduced tax to benefit the rich and now he is increasing tax on the poor. He has turned US democracy into a system that robs the poor to enrich the rich.
Therefore, his trade war is a war against American people.
On the other hand, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is used to mobilize all the people in fighting a war, which it calls people’s war.
Due to Chinese people’s patriotism, people’s war enabled poorly equipped Chinese troops to defeat the most advanced troops of the United States in Korean War.
Even in peace time, such people’s war is quite powerful. Chinese people’s opposition to the deployment of THAAD in South Korea caused them to boycott South Korea goods and tourism.
Now, according to Reuters’ report “China state media attacks Trump on trade in unusually harsh terms” yesterday, CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily published an editorial to attack Trump in harsh terms for his trade war. That is a call to mobilize China’s people’s war against the US.
US tourism and education will suffer first. Chinese scientists and engineers will work hard to excel in technology due to their patriotism.
According to China’s sage Mencius, popular support is the most important factor in winning a war, Chinese media is publishing news and editorials to rally people’s support, while Trump is imposing tax burdens on American people to rouse American people’s opposition to his trade war.
It is now very clear who will win the war.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ and Washington Post’s reports, full text of which has been reblogged by him yesterday.
Four ASEAN members Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines are contending claimants against China in the South China Sea.
Among them, Malaysia is comparatively quite a strong nation but has never been vocal in protesting against what China has done in the South China Sea, even China’s large-scale land reclamation in building quite a few artificial islands.
Reuters says in its report titled “Host Malaysia avoids Chinese ire over disputed sea at ASEAN summit” today, “Philippines President Benigno Aquino has called on leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to issue a collective statement condemning China’s reclamation in the disputed waters at the end of their Kuala Lumpur meeting.”
However, “ASEAN summit host Malaysia, which has close economic ties with China, has traditionally downplayed tensions in the South China Sea. An advance copy of (Malaysian Prime Minister) Najib’s statement, as of April 16, makes no mention of China’s reclamation work in the area.”
Why China is able to silence Malaysia, Brunei and even Vietnam, the three ASEAN members that have maritime territorial disputes with China?
In early April, US President Obama accused China of bullying its neighbors by its “sheer size and muscle”.
We now seem to have answer: Malaysia has been silenced by China’s bully with “sheer size and muscle”.
Do not underestimate Malaysian people! If Malaysian people were unhappy with their Prime Minister’s silence, they might protest as strongly as Vietnamese people when China deployed an oil rig in disputed waters.
The fact is that Malaysia has nothing to complain. Chinese coast guards have not forbidden Malaysian fishermen from fishing in the disputed waters. China even turned a blind eye to Malaysian exploitation of oil in disputed waters and establishment of a diving resort on a disputed island.
China adopts a zero-sum policy with the Philippines in driving away Philippine fishing boars as the latter adopted such a policy to forbid Chinese fishermen from fishing at Scarborough Shoal that started the Scarborough standoff.
China is really seeking a win-win solution to the disputes with Malaysia and so is Malaysia. As a result, the two countries have agreed to resolve their disputes through bilateral consultations, but no consultations have so far been held as there have been no complaints.
The above-mentioned facts prove that Obama’ accusation of China bullying its neighbors is groundless at least in the case of Malaysia.
Reuters regards close economic ties between Malaysia and China as the factor that makes Malaysia silent.
Close economic ties certainly count but as Malaysia is a democracy, popular support is more important.
Chinese Confucian sage Mencius says, “Favorable timing is not as good as geographical advantage; while geographical advantage is not as good as popular support.”
Mencius stresses popular support in that well-known saying, but the US, on the contrary seems never take popular support into account in its major moves.
The most obvious example was its Vietnamese War. The US also failed to consider that factor when it has made its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan too long to maintain popular support.
It is now also repeating that error of neglecting popular support. It has made Russian President Putin increasingly popular by its erroneous way in dealing with the Ukraine issue. As a result, Putin has Russian people’s support even in fighting a nuclear war in dealing with Ukraine issue.
However, while European countries are making efforts for peace, the US is helping Ukraine to continue the war. It has no idea that even if the war is justified, Ukrainian people will grow weary of the war if it drags on endlessly. When Ukrainian government has lost popular support, it will definitely lose.
Can US advanced weapons and training help? No, the advanced weapons supplied to China’s KMT and South Vietnamese governments supplemented by training went to the communists, and those to Iraqi government went to ISIS. We can predict that the advanced weapons supplied to Ukrainian government supplemented by training will finally go to Russia.
Most Chinese leaders consider the three factors, especially popular support, in their major moves.
They have won popular support in both China and Russia in China’s alliance with Russia, which has enabled Putin to claim that Russian-Chinese relations are better ever in history. He means that the de facto alliance between the two countries now is better than the alliance based on a treaty in 1950s.
Bloomberg says in its report titled “China Picks Pakistan as First Stop on $40 Billion Silk Road” on April 21, “Pew Research Center found in a poll conducted last year. Pakistanis gave a 78 percent favorable rating to China, compared with 14 percent for the U.S., the poll showed.”
Before Chinese President Xi Jinping provided Pakistan with billions of US dollars for economic development in his recent visit, China had already been popular in Pakistan, but the US has been unpopular in spite of the much bigger aids it has given to Pakistan before the visit.
Xi’s big spending is popular in Pakistan but not so in China; therefore, Chinese media has to publish lots of articles to praise Pakistan for what favorable things it has done for China in the past to justify the spending.
Xi pays great attention to winning popular support.
China has won popular support in ASEAN due to the success in its free trade area (FTA) with ASEAN. It will gain popular support through its FTA relations with South Korea, Australia and New Zealand if China keeps on carrying out its win-win policy.
The US may gain popularity if Obama succeeds in his TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) initiative, but it is still a question whether he will be able to win popular support for TPP in US Congress.
How can Obama achieve his rebalance against China’s FTA in East and Southeast Asia if he cannot make his TPP a reality?
Source: Reuters “Host Malaysia avoids Chinese ire over disputed sea at ASEAN summit”
Source: Bloomberg “China Picks Pakistan as First Stop on $40 Billion Silk Road”
The full text of the two reports are respectively available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/us-asean-summit-philippines-idUSKBN0NE0TL20150423 and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/china-picks-pakistan-dam-as-first-stop-on-40-billion-silk-road