Oil Price War as Putin Retaliates US Sanctions by Crushing US Shale Oil Industry

It’s not simple hostility but hatred that Putin lets oil price tumble to kill US shale oil industry in retaliation of US sanctions on Russia’s North Stream II Pipeline and Russian oil giant Rosneft for transporting Venezuelan oil.

CNBC’s commentary “Putin just sparked an oil price war with Saudi Arabia — and US energy companies may be the victims” describes Americans’ concerns about the oil price war that may hurt US shale oil industry.

However, Trump may use what the US has received from tariff hikes to defend US shale oil industry with subsidies so that Putin may fail to really hurt the US by reducing oil price that also hurts Russia itself.

Putin shall have some alternative to attack the US. What about China taking Taiwan by force to force US to give Taiwan military support? Putin will have real chance of retaliation by hitting US military. US navy and military bases in Asia are all within the range of Russian bombers to say the least.

Anyway, low oil and gas prices will greatly benefit China as it is the largest oil and gas importer. Russian support may deter US military interference when China takes Taiwan by force.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on CNBC’s commentary, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/putin-sparks-an-oil-price-war-and-us-companies-may-be-the-victims.html.

China and Russia Dreams v. America Dream

Heritage’s May-2 article “Putin Just Attacked Ukraine’s Sovereignty Yet Again” denounces Russian President Putin’s decree on issuing passports to residents of Ukrainian regions under Russia-backed separatists.

Ukraine’s newly elected president denounced the decree for its attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty, but “Putin’s recent action should come as no surprise. Moscow has been issuing Russian passports to citizens of other former Soviet countries for years,” says the article.

Putin’s decree is a part of the realization of his Russia dream, the recovery of Russia’s glory as a Eurasian power though not as a world superpower like the Soviet Union . Russia wants to recover the states separated from Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union or at least keep them within Russia’s sphere of influence. That is Putin’s Russia dream. It is perhaps most Russian people’s dream too. The practice has been well accepted by the Russians living in former Soviet countries perhaps because they share Putin’s Russia dream.

China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) in former Soviet countries and satellite countries in Central and Eastern Europe may give rise to conflict of interests between Russia and China. Will there be conflict between Putin’s Russia dream an Chinese President Xi Jinping’s China dream?

Xi’s China dream is for the rejuvenation of the great Chinese nation in order to prevent a repetition of China being bullied by Western power. Russia is no longer able nor desires to bully China as it did in history.

Flood of Chinese immigrants into Siberia may turn Siberia into China’s colony but China has avoided the conflict by allowing Chinese immigrants to marry Russians and become Russian.

BRI in Central Asia may turn it into China’s sphere of influence but China has avoided the conflict by keeping BRI projects entirely economical and let Russia maintain its political influence there. Due to Russia’s close economic relations with Central Asia, Russia is also benefited from the prosperity brought about by BRI to Central Asia.

BRI in Central and Eastern Europe is opposed by EU as EU wants the countries there to be its members or its sphere of influence. BRI, though entirely not political, will enhance China’s geopolitical influence there, which Russia does not want but at least it may reduce EU’s influence there and thus facilitate Russia’s maintenance and improvement of its influence there. Like the prosperity BRI brings to Central Asia, BRI development of infrastructures in Central and Eastern Europe will also benefit Russia.

Russia dream is popular in Russia and among the Russians in former Soviet countries while China dream is popular in China and among the large number of overseas Chinese abroad. The win-win cooperation between Russia and China greatly benefit them to make them de facto close allies.

What about US President Trump’s America dream to make “America great” again. The dream is certainly not popular at home in America. It is opposed by the opposition party the Democrats. Even in Trump’s Republican Party there is quite some opposition. As for American people, they mostly believe that America remains great so that there is no need to make America great again.

Outside the US, Trump adopts the policies of “America first” to make America great again. He is conducting and will conduct trade wars with almost all countries and make the US very unpopular in the world.

Xi’s BRI for realization of its China dream bring prosperity to China and other participating countries and help realize Russia dream while Trump’s selfish America dream will make the US unpopular even if Trump is able to achieve some economic growth with his America first policies. Anyway, the US will be entirely unqualified as world leader.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Heritage’s article, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.heritage.org/europe/commentary/putin-just-attacked-ukraines-sovereignty-yet-again.

On the eve of naval maneuvers, Putin nuzzles closer to China

By: Christopher Bodeen, The Associated Press    1 day ago

BEIJING — Russian President Vladimir Putin praised China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative Friday, underscoring warming ties between the neighboring powers.

Putin’s comments Friday to a forum in Beijing appeared to downplay the potential for tensions between China and Russia. They also reflect Beijing and Moscow’s shared resistance to U.S. global influence.

The Belt and Road is rapidly expanding China’s economic footprint in Central Asia, Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence.

But in an interview published Thursday remarking on 70 years of diplomatic relations, Putin praised Russia-China ties.

“It would be no exaggeration to say that our countries have approached this anniversary with relations the best they have been in their entire history,” Putin said. “This is the result of meticulous and successful work over the past thirty years.”

In a further sign of growing trust, the navies of the two countries will start several days of joint drills next week.

Russian wariness over China’s rising clout appears to have subsided somewhat, thanks partly to their shared rivalry with the West, especially Washington.

Putin told three-dozen leaders gathered for the conference that the Belt and Road is “intended to strengthen the creative cooperation of the states of Eurasia.”

“And it fits perfectly into our plans,” he added.

Putin was referring to the Eurasian Economic Union, which groups Russia with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in a common market that seeks to remove barriers to the free movement of goods, services, capital and labor.

The five member states “unanimously supported the idea of linking the construction of the Eurasian Economic Community” and the Belt and Road, Putin said.

Putin met with Xi on the sidelines of the conference. He visited Beijing just after wrapping up a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Russia’s Far Eastern port city of Vladivostok.

In his interview with the Chinese ruling Communist Party’s flagship People’s Daily published Thursday, he praised the “strategic partnership” with Beijing that replaced decades of Cold War mistrust when the two were communist rivals for leadership.

Putin reviewed progress in resolving lingering border disagreements, increasing tourism and trade, which hit a record $100 billion last year. He also asserted that some Western countries are claiming “sole global leadership.”

The “Joint Sea 2019” drills taking place from Monday to Saturday will feature ships and submarines along with fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters and marine units.

The exercises follow participation last September of about 3,200 Chinese troops in Russia’s largest-ever war games in Siberia, where nearly 300,000 Russian troops conducted drills amid rising tensions with NATO.

Source: Navy Times “On the eve of naval maneuvers, Putin nuzzles closer to China”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.

China-Russia Ties Put an End to US Hegemony

Reuters says in its report “Putin says Russia’s defense ties with China based on trust” yesterday, “Russian President Vladimir Putin told Chinese President Xi Jinping that Moscow and Beijing’s relations were based on trust in areas ranging from politics to security and defense.”

The trust is so profound that has made Russia bold in its military actions in Ukraine and Syria in spite of US sanctions. US military is simply unable to deal with Russian military challenges there.

In Washington Free Beacon’s article “PLA Expanding Power Through Belt and Road Initiative” I have just reblogged says, “The Pentagon’s new national defense strategy identified China for the first time in decades as a ‘strategic competitor’ seeking hegemony in Asia and ultimately ‘displacement of the United States to achieve global preeminence in the future.’”

Please be sober Pentagon, Russian’s military actions in Ukraine and Syria encouraged by its de facto alliance with China prove that there is no US hegemony or dominance in the world whatsoever.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report and Washington Free Beacon’s article. Full text of the former can be viewed at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-china-putin-xi/putin-says-russias-defense-ties-with-china-based-on-trust-idUSKCN1LR0NV while that of the latter has just been reblogged here.

Putin says China’s Xi to visit Russia in Sept.: agencies

Reuters Staff August 16, 2018

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin said Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit Russia in September, Russian news agencies RIA and Tass reported on Wednesday.

Xi will visit eastern Russian city of Vladivostok where he will take part in an economic forum, Putin was quoted as saying.

Reporting by Maria Kiselyova, Editing by Catherine Evans

Source: Reuters “Putin says China’s Xi to visit Russia in Sept.: agencies”

Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.

No New Cold War due to Lack of a West Camp to Counter East Camp

I have talked much in my previous posts about the new Cold War between the East Camp centered on China and Russia and the West Camp led by the US. Now according to SCMP’s report “Xi Jinping sends unity message at regional security summit in China after G7 disarray”, the West Camp is in disarray after the G7 meeting.

Due to the rift between the US and Europe due to their conflicts of interests, there will simply be no West Camp to counter the East Camp. As it takes two to tango, there will be no new Cold War like the old one.

The East Camp has the opportunity to exploit the rift to ally with Europe in dealing with the US and ally with the US to deal with Europe. As a result, the East Camp will prevail to prove the prediction that the 21st century is Asian century.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s report, full text of which can be viewed at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2150117/xi-jinping-sends-unity-message-regional-security-summit.

The US Is Pushing Iran into China’s, Russia’s Arms

Previously I had a few posts on the US pushing China into Russia’s arms by interference with China’s disputes with its neighbors in the South China Sea and pushing Russia into China’s arms by sanctions over the Ukrainian issue.

Now, SCMP’s report “Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin hail ‘all-time high’ in ties, sign US$3 billion of nuclear deals” describes the close de facto alliance between China and Russia.

What does “all-time high” mean? Is there an alliance between Russia and China?

It means Russia-China tie is closer than alliance. Why? Because it is “all-time high”! The highest point must be in the 1950s when China and Russia’s predecessor the Soviet Union concluded the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance to establish an alliance between the two. Now, there has been no treaty of alliance, but the two are closer than they were treaty allies in the 1950s.

As mentioned above, the two have to thank the US for the alliance, which make them strong enough to openly challenge the US.

Russia challenged the West led by the US by sending troops into Ukraine to annex Crimea and split Ukraine. The US and EU have imposed sanctions on Russia to punish it. However, with China’s support, sanctions do not work. Russia has become more aggressive and even sent troops into Syria.

US former president Obama adopted the policy of pivot to Asia to interfere with China’s maritime territorial disputes with its neighbors in the South China Sea in order to contain China. China responded by building seven artificial islands with three long airstrips on them in the South China Sea. The US failed to stop China promptly as it was distracted by Russia in Europe. Now with the artificial islands, China has de facto turned the South China Sea into its lake.

The US responds with a few freedom of navigation operations a year in the South China Sea. It will be joined by Britain and France that will also send navy to carry out similar operations there.

China says that it will never hinder freedom of navigation there but such operations shall not be the excuses for violating China’s sovereignty by entering China’s territorial waters.

China has turned the sea into its lake in order to exploit the rich fish and energy resources there. The US and EU know that well but do they dare to interfere with China’s exploitation of resources there?

The above is Obama’s contributions to China and Russia.

Now, it’s US President Trump’s turn. He is pushing Iran into China and Russia’s arms by unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian Nuclear Deal. Iran needs Chinese and Russian help to deal with US sanctions. SCMP says in the above-mentioned report, “Xi and Putin also vowed to make ‘all possible efforts’ to preserve the 2015 international accord on Iran’s nuclear programme that Trump abandoned last month.”

The Russia- and China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has just become an organization of significance after recruiting India and Pakistan as its new members. Now, Iranian president has come to China to attend SCO summit and may very likely make real efforts for SCO membership.

The US is driving Iron to Russia’s and China’s side to enable them to form an Asian iron triangle to counter the US.

Does the US really need so many enemies?

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s report, full text of which can be found at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2149991/xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-hail-all-time-high-ties-sign.