US Not Willing to Be Drawn into War by Japan or Philippines


US Air Force General Herbert J. "Hawk" Carlisle Photo: Supplied

US Air Force General Herbert J. “Hawk” Carlisle Photo: Supplied

The US has three allies to protect in Asia: South Korea, Japan and the Philippines.

However, its alliances with them are all one-sided as none of them can help the US when the US is in trouble but the US has to shed the blood of its people to defend them when they are in trouble.

That is all right for the US as the US is the only one in the world powerful enough to protect others.

However, US’s allies are really troublesome for the US

First, like Al Qaeda, Japan launched a sneak attack at the US and killed more than 2,400 Americans, a few hundreds less than 911. Now, the US regards Japan as its close ally that it has the obligation to protect. What about Al Qaeda? Will it become US close ally 70 years later if it has surrendered to the US?

Japan is not repentant at all. Naoki Hyakuta, a writer of a best seller fiction representing a major part of Japanese public opinion, evem accused the US of “cruel massacres” by fire-bombing Tokyo and dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

US is not benefited by its relations with Japan at all.

Japan might contend that it provides the US with strategic sites as US military bases in Asia so that it helps defend the US. However, US troops stationed in the bases in Japan are for protection of Japan and South Korea. The US has enough islands in the Pacific for its own defense against its enemies, if any, in Asia.

Economically, Japan is a fierce competitor to the US. A weak Japan is certainly good for the US.

That is especially true if Xi Jinping has succeeded in his reform and thus provided a huge Chinese market for goods with fine quality and high technology to the world.

Japan and the US both have the technology and well-educated surplus labor to produce such goods for China, but Japan enjoy the advantage of low transport costs. Moreover, the closeness of geological location and culture between Japan and Chian will enable Japan to understand the trend on Chinese market earlier and better than th US.

True, the US may make some profit by weapon sales to Japan but Japan is entirely able to produce weapons as good if it succeeds in its current attempt to free itself from the restriction to its weapon production.

The worst thing Japan is trying to do is to begin a war with China and compel the US to join Japan in fighting China. The US is certainly not so stupid as to fight China for Japan to maintain its possession of a few tiny islands in the East China Sea.

US Secretary of State John Kerry told Japanese foreign minister that US will perform its obligation to defend Japan if is Japan is attacked. Reading between lines, we know Kerry meant that the US has no obligation to defend Japan if Japan attacks China.

To Japanese Prime Minister’s comparison to UK-German relations before World War I in predicting a war between China and Japan is inevitable and Philippine President Aquino’s comparison of China to Hitler, General Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, commander of US air forces in the Pacific, was more straightforward in saying that Comments by the leaders of Japan and the Philippines drawing parallels between China’s growing assertiveness in the region and events in pre-war Europe are “not helpful”.

“The rise of Germany and what occurred between the U.K. in particular and Germany, and what happened in Europe, I don’t draw that comparison at all to what’s going on today” in the Asia-Pacific, he said. “Some of the things, in particular that have been done by Japan, they need to think hard about what is provocative to other nations.”

Clearly, US military does not want to be involved by Japan or the Philippines into a war with China.

Abe is clever. Being clearly aware that Japan cannot win a war with China without US support, according to huanqiu.com, Abe has recently changed his hardline attitude and said that Japan and China were too closely related to be separated. He said he had to make clear that in fact there should never be conflict between Japan and China and he should not let such conflict emerge.

The Philippines is an even ungrateful ally. It has driven away from it the US troops that have liberated it from Japanese occupation and intended to protect it. However, it now wants to draw the US into a war with China but failed. Its provocation has enabled China to gain complete control of Scarborough Shoal. In addition, Chinese navy has now controlled the sea area around the disputed islands occupied by the Philippines, which can do nothing to resist. The Philippines has appealed to the US and ASEAN for support but got nothing. In addition, it has applied to the UN for arbitration in favor of its claim to the disputed islands, but is now not confident that the arbitration award will be in its favor.

Its president Aquino is now desperate. What he can do now is but to keep on accusing the international community including the US, ASEAN and the UN of appeasement in spite of General Carlisle’s advice that he has “to think hard about what is provocative to other nations.”

Source: Asahi Shimbun “U.S. State Department calls remarks by NHK governor ‘preposterous’”

Source: The Sydney Morning Herald “US general criticises Japan, Philippines’ anti-China views”

Source: huanqiu.com “Abe: I don’t want to provoke a conflict, but the Diaoyus belong to Japan” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)

Related posts:

  • Aquino Desperate in Hinting UN, ASEAN Appeasing China dated February 6, 2014
  • Insight: Japan unease over U.S. alliance adds fuel to Abe’s security shift dated February 5, 2014
  • What Will the US Do if a War Breaks out between China and Japan? dated February 3, 2014
  • US Vice President Joe Biden Obviously Is Pro-Beijing and Lacks Trust in Abe dated January 30, 2014
  • Japanese PM Abe, Chinese President Xi Jinping Both Want a War. Can It Be Avoided? dated January 25, 2014
  • The Mystery of What Biden Has Got in His Beijing Visit dated December 6, 2014
  • Signals of Beijing’s Determination to Fight for DiaoyuIslands dated November 26, 2013

US general criticises Japan, Philippines’ anti-China views


US Air Force General Herbert J. "Hawk" Carlisle Photo: Supplied

US Air Force General Herbert J. “Hawk” Carlisle Photo: Supplied

(Bloomberg) Singapore: Comments by the leaders of Japan and the Philippines drawing parallels between China’s growing assertiveness in the region and events in pre-war Europe are “not helpful,” said the commander of US air forces in the Pacific.

“The rise of Germany and what occurred between the U.K. in particular and Germany, and what happened in Europe, I don’t draw that comparison at all to what’s going on today” in the Asia-Pacific, General Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, 58, said. “Some of the things, in particular that have been done by Japan, they need to think hard about what is provocative to other nations.”

The recent comments by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Philippine President Benigno Aquino, two US allies, have escalated tensions at a time when China is pushing its territorial claims in both the East and South China Seas, and as President Xi Jinping expands the reach of his country’s navy. Both sought to cast China’s actions against the historical perspective of Germany’s ascension in the first half of the 20th century.

“The de-escalation of tensions has got to be a multilateral approach and it’s not just one country that needs to de-escalate,” said General Carlisle, a former fighter squadron commander who is responsible for air force operations for more than half the globe, with oversight of 45,000 aircrew. “All of them do. The risk from miscalculation is high. It’s greater than it should be.”

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Mr Abe said in Switzerland late last month that Germany and Britain went to war despite strong economic ties, and warned Japan and China must avoid a similar fate. In an interview with the New York Times published February 5, Mr Aquino called on nations to support the Philippines in defending its territory in the South China Sea, drawing a parallel with the West’s failure to back Czechoslovakia against Adolf Hitler’s demands for the Sudetenland in 1938.

China and Japan haven’t held a summit since Mr Abe took office in December 2012. Protests broke out in China in late 2012 after Japan bought some of the disputed East China Sea islands, known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese, from a private owner. China in November set up an air defence zone in the area, demanding civil and military aircraft present flight plans before entering the space. In December, Mr Abe roiled ties by visiting the Yasukuni shrine, which honours Japan’s war dead including 14 World War II military leaders convicted as Class-A criminals.

“If you look at some of the things that have been going on in the East China Sea, both militaries have been conducting themselves very professionally,” said General Carlisle. “But the potential for something, a mistake to occur or miscalculation or misunderstanding to occur, is out there. There is significantly more activity from both nations around the disputed territorial claims, and that to me is a risk.”

Any attempt by China to replicate its air zone in the South China Sea would be a “very provocative act,” said General Carlisle. The US opposes any such move and “we’ve strongly, through diplomatic channels, made that known to the PRC,” Carlisle said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei on February 1 dismissed as “speculation” a report by Japanese newspaper Asahi that China also plans a zone in waters rich in fish, oil and gas that are subject to competing claims from countries such as China, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, and home to some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

China introduced fishing rules last month requiring foreign vessels to seek permission before entering waters off its southern coast. The South China Sea is estimated to have as much as 30 billion metric tons of oil and 16 trillion cubic meters of gas, which would account for about one-third of China’s oil and gas resources, according to China’s official Xinhua News Agency.

Policing any air zone over the South China Sea would require China to shift some of its forces, which are now predominantly on the east coast of China, Carlisle said.

“There’s less of an established force today in the south,” he said. “The numbers it would take to patrol that size of air space, they would have to shift some of their force. Whether they do that or not, I couldn’t tell you. The capability of their systems to range the entire South China Sea does exist.”

In December China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned from an initial training mission in the South China Sea. Its drills triggered diplomatic tensions after a Chinese vessel cut in front of the USS Cowpens guided-missile cruiser from a distance of 100 metres in the area on December 5, an incident US defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said was “irresponsible.”

Source: The Sydney Morning Herald “US general criticises Japan, Philippines’ anti-China views”

Related posts:

  • Insight: Japan unease over U.S. alliance adds fuel to Abe’s security shift dated February 5, 2014
  • What Will the US Do if a War Breaks out between China and Japan? dated February 3, 2014
  • US Vice President Joe Biden Obviously Is Pro-Beijing and Lacks Trust in Abe dated January 30, 2014
  • Japanese PM Abe, Chinese President Xi Jinping Both Want a War. Can It Be Avoided? dated January 25, 2014
  • The Mystery of What Biden Has Got in His Beijing Visit dated December 6, 2014
  • Signals of Beijing’s Determination to Fight for Diaoyu Islands dated November 26, 2013

Japan urges ‘hotline’ with China, plays down shrine visit


(L-R) Japan's Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera, Japan's Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius and Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian attend a news conference Credit: REUTERS/Charles Platiau

(L-R) Japan’s Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera, Japan’s Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius and Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian attend a news conference Credit: REUTERS/Charles Platiau

Japan, at odds with China on territorial and other issues, took its case to Europe on Thursday, defending Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to a war shrine and reiterating its call for an emergency hotline between Tokyo and Beijing.

Ties between the two Asian economic giants, never warm, were further strained last month when Abe visited Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, where Japanese leaders convicted as war criminals are enshrined with other war dead, angering China and South Korea.

Beijing and Tokyo are also arguing over ownership of a group of uninhabited islets in the East China Sea. China has said it is willing to talk to Japan about the issue but has accused Abe of not being serious about wanting to resolve the dispute.

Speaking at a news conference with their French counterparts, Japan’s Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said Tokyo’s sole objective was building a durable peace in the Asian-Pacific region.

“We need a hotline for dialogue,” Onodera said, speaking through an interpreter. “We spoke to China about this, but sadly this dialogue is not open, but we must re-open it.”

Japan and China agreed in 2011 to hold discussions on setting up a Defense hotline for maritime and air emergencies.

But their talks stalled after the Japanese government bought the disputed islands from a private landowner in 2012 to fend off a potentially more inflammatory purchase by the Tokyo city government, then headed by a nationalist governor.

APOLOGY

China took its propaganda war with Japan to the United Nations on Wednesday, questioning Abe’s motives for visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and calling on him to correct his “erroneous outlook” on history.

Both China and Korea suffered under brutal Japanese rule, with parts of China occupied in the 1930s and Korea colonized from 1910 to 1945.

Responding to a question from a Chinese journalist at the Paris news conference, Kishida said Abe had apologized to those in China and South Korea who had felt offended. He added that Abe had gone there to pray for peace.

“It is a shrine where we go to pray for the souls of two million Japanese who lost their lives for their country,” Kumio said. “It was to show our sadness and pray for a world without war. We have to continue dialogue and the prime minister will continue to explain his motivations for the visit.”

France has little influence in the Asian region but is keen to boost its economic ties there. It is also one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, along with China, Japan’s key ally the United States, Russia and Britain.

“The tensions (between China and Japan) are a source of concern,” Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said. “We want this part of the world to find solutions to ease tensions.”

Kishida and Onodera were in Paris for the first joint meeting of French and Japanese Defense and foreign ministers. It followed a similar meeting between Japan and Russia in November.

Paris and Tokyo agreed to consult each other on procedures and mechanisms to control the export of military materials and goods with potential military use.

Japan had pressed for such an accord after France sold ship-based helicopter-landing equipment to China which Tokyo fears could improve Beijing’s ability to patrol the contested islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China.

Further talks will be held in April to firm up a potential military partnership between France and Japan, including for next-generation helicopters, submarine propulsion and underwater drones, the ministers said.

Source: Reuters “Japan urges ‘hotline’ with China, plays down shrine visit”


Signals of Beijing’s Determination to Fight for Diaoyu Islands


The disputed Diaoyu Islands

The disputed Diaoyu Islands

The establishment of the East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone may only be a gesture to claim the Diaoyus (called Senkakus by Japan), but sending fighter jets to patrol the Zone, stating “China’s armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions” and calling on all Chinese living in Japan to register” to facilitate consular assistance” in case of “a major unexpected emergency” are clear signals of Beijing’s determination to fight a war.

The “defensive emergency measures” are precisely the “unexpected emergency” that may give rise to need for consular assistance”

The ball is now on Japan’s side. If Japan also adopts such a hardline attitude, war seems unavoidable. Let’s hope it is of limited scale.

SCMP gives a detailed story of Chinese embassy calling on all Chinese living in Japan to register in its report today titled “Beijing advises nationals living in Japan to register with embassy in Tokyo” as follows:

China’s declaration of an air defence zone in the East China Sea has renewed attention on a notice from its embassy in Tokyo advising all its citizens in Japan to voluntarily register with its consular section.

The registration form was uploaded onto the diplomatic mission’s homepage early this month. But it attracted widespread attention in mainland media over the weekend after China announced on Saturday it was setting up an “air defence identification zone” in the East China Sea, which covers the disputed Diaoyu Islands, known as the Senkakus in Japanese.

The embassy called on all Chinese living in Japan to register “to facilitate consular assistance” in case of “a major unexpected emergency”, according to a statement on its website. Chinese living in Japan were asked to submit contact details of next of kin in Japan and China.

The flight zone, which overlaps roughly half of Japanese airspace claims, requires all aircraft crossing it to report to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the nation’s civil aviation administration.

China launched its first patrol on Saturday, while Japan scrambled two fighter jets to intercept two Chinese aircraft. The US and South Korea have expressed concerns over the zone.

Dr Stephen Nagy, assistant professor of Japanese Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the call for registration was not a genuine effort to account for Japan’s Chinese population, but rather a covert show of force.

Nagy said according to Japanese census data, more than 600,000 people of Chinese descent live in Japan, many of them in major cities like Tokyo, Osaka, Kobe and Yokohama.

“Hundreds of thousands Chinese live, study and work in Japan,” Nagy said. “This is more of a tactical gesture by the Chinese government to put pressure on Japan.”

Anti-Japanese demonstrations over the Diaoyu dispute peaked in the mainland in September last year, following news that the Japanese government had bought the islands from the family said to own them.

Source: SCMP “Beijing advises nationals living in Japan to register with embassy in Tokyo”


China Wants the US to Prevent the War Between China and Japan by Restraining Japan


Submarine launch of JL-2 SLBM

Submarine launch of JL-2 SLBM

China’s official huanqiu.com gave a comprehensive report today on the rare front-page publication of lots of photos, charts and articles about Chinese strategic nuclear submarines in various major official media including the People’s Daily both domestic and overseas versions, PLA Daily, Chinese Youth Daily and Guangming Daily.

Chinese nuclear submarine unit has been established for 42 years now. It was not an occasion of the 10th, 20th, 30th or 40th major anniversary of the establishment of the unit. The sudden breaking of the strictly guarded mystery about the unit really puzzled analysts.

In the report, huanqiu.com hailed the successful development of China’s submarine strategic second-strike strength in addition to its mobile ICBMs hidden in tunnels and openly regarded it as a nuclear deterrent against the US.

The report provides 29 photos and charts of which I only post one. All the photos and charts can be seen at:
http://mil.huanqiu.com/mlitaryvision/2013-10/2714866.html

Source: huanqiu.com “China has for the first time effective underwater strategic nuke deterrent against the US” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)

However, the revelation a few days before Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with US President Obama amid grave tension between China and Japan gave people the impression that China wanted to warn the US that it had nuclear weapons to counter US intervention in a war between China and Japan.

The impression is especially true taking into account of the preceding revelations of the accuracy of China’s DF-21D missile and the superb stealth performance of China’s fleet of more than 80 Type 022 stealth fast speed missile boats, both of which are regarded as aircraft carrier killers.

Obviously the latter revelations plus the revelation of Chinese nuclear attack submarines’ capability in simultaneously launching several torpedoes constitute China’s attempt to show the US that it has deterrent against the US in a conventional naval war near China.

However, the revelations at least indicate China’s unwillingness to fight a war and hope that the US will tell Japan to restrain itself to avoid a war.

There are indeed hardliners in the PLA who advocate fighting a war with the US and inflicting heavy casualty to scare American people. For that purpose, China has to keep those weapons secret, but that is not what China’s wise leaders want to do. By the revelations, Chinese leaders have given clear indication that China wants a peaceful rise.

I still believe that the US is able to prevent the war between China and Japan if it clearly tells Japan that if Japan starts the war, the US will not support it. Anyway, the treaty between US and Japan aims at defending Japan instead of helping Japan attack a third country.

Am I too optimistic?

Related posts

  • Sino-Japanese War Imminent: Japanese Planes, Warships Watching Chinese Drill in Close Distance dated October 29
  • Sino-Japanese War Imminent: Shinzo Abe’s Hardline Response to China dated October 28
  • War Imminent between Japan and China dated October 28
  • Japan PM says ready to be more assertive against China: media dated October 28
  • U.S. says hopes China, Japan push diplomacy on isles spat dated September 15

China perhaps need not be unwilling to fight a war, but shall not conquer Japan


H-6K bomber able to launch hundreds of cruise missiles at Japan

H-6K bomber able to launch hundreds of cruise missiles at Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vilified China and announced his intention to take the lead in countering China in his interview with Wall Street Journal.

Global Times Chinese version regards Mr. Abe’ words as bluffing. As Chinese people want peaceful rise, perhaps people outside China believe that China is afraid of fighting a war.

Some Chinese people perhaps really are unwilling to fight a war due to their hope for a peaceful rise, but Global Times says China cannot help fighting against Japan if Japan has really attacked Chinese drone as China has to defend its national dignity.

However, it holds that in spite of China’s military superiority with lots of medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to destroy Japan, China shall not conquer Japan as soon as the war breaks out. China shall fight a long-lasting war always making Japan suffer greater than China.

Source: Global Times “China perhaps need not be unwilling to fight a war, but shall not conquer Japan” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the article in Chinese)

  • Related posts at tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com:
  • Sino-Japanese War Imminent: Japanese Planes, Warships Watching Chinese Drill in Close Distance dated October 29
  • Sino-Japanese War Imminent: Shinzo Abe’s Hardline Response to China dated October 28
  • War Imminent between Japan and China dated October 28
  • Japan PM says ready to be more assertive against China: media dated October 28
  • U.S. says hopes China, Japan push diplomacy on isles spat dated September 15
  • South China Sea Disputes: Chinese Strategy dated July10
  • South China Sea Disputes: Encirclement of China dated July 6

Japanese military: 4 Chinese military aircrafts Flew Near Okinawa 3 Days in a Row


Map published by Japan on Chinese aircrafts’ patrol routes

Map published by Japan on Chinese aircrafts’ patrol routes

Japan’s Kyoto News reported on October 27 that Chinese military aircrafts flew near Japan’s Okinawa from October 25 to 27. Japanese military has intensified alert.

Japan sent in a hurry its F-15 fighters to intercept but admitted that Chinese military aircrafts had not entered Japanese territory.

Chinese Defense Ministry Spokesman Geng Yansheng said to media on October that the activities of Chinese military aircrafts, including unmanned ones, normal training and flying that entirely conform with international law and practices. He gave advice to various parties no to underestimate Chinese troops’ determination to protect China’s territories.

Source: huanqiu.com “Japanese military: 4 Chinese military aircrafts Flew Near Okinawa 3 Days in a Row” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)

Obviously, Chinese aircrafts were patrolling the area for counterattack in case that Japan shot down Chinese drone. China has no scruple to fight. It Japan really shoot down a Chinese drone, it seems that war is unavoidable. We hope it will be a war of limited scale. So does huanqiu.com in a separate report.

Related posts

  • Sino-Japanese War Imminent: Japanese Planes, Warships Watching Chinese Drill in Close Distance dated October 29
  • Sino-Japanese War Imminent: Shinzo Abe’s Hardline Response to China dated October 28
  • War Imminent between Japan and China dated October 28
  • Japan PM says ready to be more assertive against China: media dated October 28
  • U.S. says hopes China, Japan push diplomacy on isles spat dated September 15
  • South China Sea Disputes: Chinese Strategy dated July10
  • South China Sea Disputes: Encirclement of China dated July 6