Serious Nuclear Arms Race between the US, China, Russia


SCMP says in its report “China steps up pace in new nuclear arms race with US and Russia as experts warn of rising risk of conflict” yesterday that China conducted 200 laboratory experiments that simulate nuclear blasts to develop smaller nuclear warheads that cause less damage and radioactive pollution so that they will be next-generation of strategic nuclear weapons with less disastrous effect or even be used as tactical weapons.

The report says that “In comparison, the US carried out only 50 such tests between 2012 and 2017”.

Though having less tests, SCMP says, “Pentagon officials have said the US wants its enemies to believe it might actually use its new-generation weapons, such as smaller, smarter tactical warheads designed to limit damage by destroying only specific targets.”

That proves that China’s tests are but a response of self defense. As the US has more than 1,000 live tests of nuclear explosion since 1945 while China has only 45, China needs to carry out more laboratory tests to collect data for development of next-generation of nuclear weapons. I don’t think that China can surpass the US with so many laboratory tests as live tests provide much better data than laboratory ones.

Moreover, China’s efforts are also its response to Russia’s intensive development of nuclear weapons. SCMP says in the report, “The Russian government under Vladimir Putin has in recent years revealed a series of new nuclear weapon programmes, including smaller weapons, as well as a super torpedo capable of wiping out coastal cities.” China shall develop capabilities to counter that in spite of its de facto alliance with Russia. Situation may change. There is the saying: “There is no eternal friend or enemy.”

China’s nuclear arms remain defensive as China has promised not to be the first to use nuclear weapons.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s report, full text of which can be found at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2147304/china-steps-pace-new-nuclear-arms-race-us-and-russia-experts-warn


South China Sea disputes: China Advances, US Retreats


A Chinese coastguard vessel sprays a water cannon at Philippine fishermen near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea in September 2015. Photo: AP

SCMP says in its report “China’s coastguard staking claim to contested reefs in South China Sea” today that China has intensified patrols of the sea area claimed by it within its nine-dash line. It said, “These South China Sea claims were also denied by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague last July” to hint that China is wrong in carrying out such patrols.

However, SCMP seems to forget that after the arbitration award China sent its air force to conduct combat patrol of the area it claims with its best fighter jets and bombers. The US sent two aircraft battle groups to force China to accept the arbitration award, but China responded with its firm resolution to fight a war to protect its rights and interests in the South China Sea.

Patrol by coast guard vessels are really not worth mentioning compared with combat patrol by advanced warplanes.

The US is wise not to fight China in the South China Sea as China has geographical advantages there especially when it has built large artificial islands with three airports there.

Moreover, Obama and Hillary Clinton created trouble in the South China Sea in order but to contain China. The US has no interests there for it to fight a war with a military power.

Trump’s priority is to bring jobs back home and make the US great. He certainly will not waste US resources in a conflict that will not benefit the US.

Other claimants may be unhappy with China’s patrols in the disputed areas but who shall they blame? The Philippines that filed the arbitration, the arbitration court that gave an entirely unacceptable arbitration award and the US that instigated the arbitration but has failed to enforce the arbitration award.

We see the stupidity of the arbitration. Without the arbitration, China did not actively patrol the disputed area, but after the arbitration that utterly denies China’s rights and interests, unless China is weak and easily bullied as it was a century ago, it will certainly advance into the area. Without sufficient military power to counter China’s advance, the US can do nothing but avoid military conflict with China there no matter who is US president.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s report, full text of which can be viewed at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2089962/chinas-coastguard-staking-claim-contested-reefs-south.


With J-20, China No Longer Worries about F-22, F-35


Chinese air force commander General Ma Shengli tells reporter he is very much satisfied with J-20. Photo from Shenzhen TV footage

Chinese air force commander General Ma Xiaotian tells reporter he is very much satisfied with J-20. Photo from Shenzhen TV footage

On November 4, I reblogged the article on China’s J-20 stealth fighter jet titled “Opinion: Should US be worried about China’s new J-20 stealth fighters?” on CNN by RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) combat air power and technology expert Justin Bronk.

I believe Bronk’s analysis that J-20 is not so good as F-22 and F-35 in reducing its radar cross section due to its shape, but I don’t agree with his speculation “China also has significantly less know-how in terms of radar-absorbent coatings compared with the United States. Most importantly, it is extremely unlikely that the J-20 is equipped with anything approaching the F-22’s and F-35’s sensor suite.”

Bronk’s ground for the above speculation is China’s lack of experience as it is quite late in developing stealth technology. That indeed proves nothing.

China is late but able to develop a stealth fighter.

China is late in developing powerful turbofan engine but the air show proves that China has provided J-20 with very powerful engines.

The above are quite sound grounds to refute Bronk’s speculation.

As for sensor suite, China has developed its AEW&C aircrafts not inferior to America’s.

The greatest superiority of F-22 and F-35, according to Bronk, is that the sensor suites enable F-22 and F-35 to have “sensor-fusion capabilities” for “their pilots”.

However, CCTV says in its report yesterday on J-20 that J-20’s various functions rank among the best in the world.

In addition, Chinese air force commander General Ma Xiaotian tells Shenzhen TV reporter that he is very much satisfied with J-20.

That obviously means that having got J-20, Gel. Ma does not worry about F-22 or F-35.

Strange! The US does not worry based on its experts and British expert Bronk’s analysis. What is General Ma’ ground in being satisfied with China’s J-20 in spite of the weaknesses Bronk has pointed out.

Do not be surprised by that. China and US have different strategic goals in developing their stealth fighter jets.

The US has developed F-22 and is developing F-35 for global air supremacy; therefore it needs them to be better stealth to avoid being detected by enemy AEW&Cs and land-based radars.

China has developed its J-20 for regional air supremacy in airspace near it. As J-20 has the support of AEW&C aircrafts and land-based radars while the US does not as US land-based radars are all within China’s intermediate ballistic missiles while its AEW&C aircrafts will be shot down by J-20 if they come near China to support its fighter jets. Even the radars on US warships cannot support US stealth fighter jets as they too cannot come near China for fear of saturated attack of China’s anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles.

That is why data links between all the US stealth fighter jets are so important. That will be the only source of their information in the combat though their pilots will be under great pressure in analyzing the information while controlling their fighter jets to deal with J-20s.

J-20 pilots are much more relaxed so that they can focus on shooting down US warplanes. Their command center either on the ground or in an AEW&C aircraft obtains all the information from land-based radars, all Chinese warplanes and warships in the combat and all the Chinese satellites in space. China’s experts among the crew on the AEW&C aircraft or in the command center on the ground are able to make analysis with the help of much stronger computers to direct J-20s to hit their targets.

With such support, Chinese designer may sacrifice some stealth capabilities for better maneuverability in J-20’s shape.

US stealth fighter jets’ sensor-fusion capabilities are a poor alternative for support from ground, AEW&C and warships. US F-22 and F-35 pilot will find himself like a fly facing a huge net of spider.

That is why General Ma is so satisfied.

The US certainly shall not worry as China’s J-20 is utterly unable to threaten the US outside the airspace near China. The airspace J-20 defends is quite small compared with that outside, which will be dominated by US F-22 and F-35. F-22 and F-35 will help the US maintain its status as world hegemon. No worry!

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on CCTV’s report “Air force shows off establishment of systems of new high-tech weapons and equipment at airshow” and mil.huanqiu.com’s report “Air force commander: Very much satisfied with J-20’s performance: Time table has been set for commissioning of J-20” both in Chinese, and CNN “Opinion: Should US be worried about China’s new J-20 stealth fighters?”, full text of which can be viewed at http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/01/opinions/chinas-new-j-20-stealths-opinion/


China’s Third Successful Test of ICBM Interception


China's anti-ballistic missile test on January 27, 2013

China’s anti-ballistic missile test on January 27, 2013

Diagram of anti-ballistic missile interception

Diagram of anti-ballistic missile interception

At the top left corner of the diagram is the space-based early warning radar. The missile below it is the ballistic missile to be intercepted while the missile on the right is the interceptor missile. The second ground facility from left is the ground–based early warning radar while the ground facilities on the right are the command center.

This is official. Huanqiu.com reporter learnt from the Chinese Ministry of Defense that on July 23, 2014, China conducted a successful test of ground-based midcourse interception of ICBM.

That was China’s third successful interception test. The first was conducted on January 11, 2010 and the second, on January 27, 2013. Like the second, China declared that the test attained its pre-set goal.

What did “attained its pre-set goal” meant? In an interview in late January 2013 after the second test, a Second Artillery Corps expert who had studied strategic missiles for 45 years, explained in an interview with Southern Metropolis, a popular Chinese newspaper, “It is very simple. Accurate interception and accurate destroy.”

Huanqiu.com says according to military analysts, the successful test is of great strategic significance. It indicates a new stage of China’s anti-ballistic missile technology in the areas of information processing, reconnaissance, early warning, interception weapon, weapon transmission, accuracy of guidance and speed of response.

It is necessary to clarify that some people regard China’s midcourse anti-missile test as something similar to US PAC-3 and Russia’s S-400 missile systems. That is entirely wrong. Midcourse interception of ballistic missile is much more difficult than terminal interception conducted by systems like PAC-3. It requires the tackling of very poor conditions of operation outside the atmosphere. There must be top state-of-the-art science and technology for missile and weapons of space warfare including, among other things, KKV interceptor, accurate detection, tracking and terminal guidance technology, overall technology for space warfare platform and wartime measuring and control technology of the platform.

So far US GMD system is the only ground-based system comparable in technology to China midcourse anti-missile test.

This blogger has to point out that in our space era, space warfare is unavoidable. In such warfare, the most important is the technology of speed and accuracy. Mastery of the speed exceeding Mach 23 quicker than an ICBM at midcourse and the technology to accurately control spacecrafts at such speed will enable a country to intercept ICBMs with ease.

Only when the human race has mastered such technology can it remove the threat of the holocaust of nuclear war.

Only when the human race has mastered the high speed and accuracy of the space era can we really go to the space. With the speed we have achieved now, it takes seven months to go to the nearest planet in our solar system.. The solar system is too large for us if we cannot achieve a higher speed, let alone the travel to another solar system.

Now, China is vigorously carrying out its space program including first a lunar program and then a Mars program while the US is doing little due to lack of funds.

The space program will enable China to obtain the technology of high speed and accuracy. In terms of military application, it is what China calls integrated space and air capabilities for attack and defense.

If the US remains obsessed with its Air-Sea Battle strategy to counter the A2/AD (anti access and area denial) strategy that it mistakenly regards as China’s, the dominant military force in the world will certainly be Chinese instead of American in the foreseeable future.

Source: huanqiu.com “Ministry of Defense: China carried out a successful test of ground-based midcourse anti-missile test within its territories” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)

Related post:

  • China carries out anti-missile test dated January 28, 2013
  • 2nd Artillery Corp Expert: China Lags behind the US in Missile Interception dated January 29, 2013

China ramps up military spending for arms race with the US


Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Photo: AFP

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Photo: AFP

China will increase military spending by 12.2 percent this year to 808.23 billion yuan ($131.57 billion), the government said on Wednesday, partly to beef up coastal and air defenses and to develop more high-tech weapons.

The government announced its spending plan for the 2.3 million-strong People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at the opening of parliament’s annual meeting. The increase builds on a nearly unbroken run of double-digit hikes in the defense budget for the past two decades.

“We will comprehensively enhance the revolutionary nature of the Chinese armed forces, further modernize them and upgrade their performance, and continue to raise their deterrence and combat capabilities in the information age,” Premier Li Keqiang told the largely rubber-stamp legislature.

Li added that China would “strengthen research on national defense and the development of new- and high-technology weapons and equipment” and “enhance border, coastal and air defenses”.

China’s military spending is now second only to that of the United States, allowing Beijing to create a modern force that is projecting power deep into the disputed waters of the East and South China Seas.

Much military spending takes place outside the budget, however, and many experts estimate real outlays are closer to $200 billion. The U.S. Defense Department’s base budget for fiscal 2014 is $526.8 billion.

At a time when Washington has stepped up its military presence in the region as part of a strategic “pivot” toward Asia, China is building new submarines, surface ships and anti-ship ballistic missiles, and has tested emerging technology aimed at destroying missiles in mid-air.

It carried out the first test flight of a stealth fighter jet in 2011 and has put a refurbished aircraft carrier to sea.

Nevertheless, experts say it could be decades before China’s military is a match for America’s armed forces.

David Helvey, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, told a U.S. Senate committee hearing on Tuesday that the Pentagon was seeking to build “healthy” ties with China’s military, but said Beijing needed to be more transparent about its armed forces buildup.

“We remain concerned about a lack of transparency regarding China’s growing military and its increasingly assertive behavior in the maritime domain,” Helvey said.

China has repeatedly said the world has nothing to fear from its military spending, which it says is needed for legitimate defensive purposes.

Its neighbors, however, have become increasingly nervous about Beijing’s expanding military, and the latest double-digit rise could reinforce disquiet in the region.

China and Japan have locked horns over uninhabited rocky islands each claims in the East China Sea.

Beijing also claims 90 percent of the 3.5 million sq km (1.35 million sq mile) South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan claim parts of those waters.

The United States last month said it was concerned that China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea were an effort to gain creeping control of oceans in the Asia-Pacific region.

($1 = 6.1430 Chinese yuan)

Source: Reuters “China’s Xi ramps up military spending in face of worried region”

Related posts:

  • CHINA STEPS UP ITS NAVY BUILDUP date January 29, 2012
  • Arms Race between China and America dated March 5, 2012
  • In Its Arms Race with America China Launches Two Satellites for Its GPS System dated April 30, 2012
  • China: Intensive Arms Race Causes Stress on Elite Engineers dated November 6, 2012
  • Arms Craze: Aircraft Carrier Style takes off in China dated November 27, 2012
  • Chinese Dream and China’s Arms Race with the US January 8, 2013
  • China’s Mysterious F-60 Sixth-Generation Stealth Fighter Jet Appeared on Expressway dated November 2, 2013
  • Chinese Admiral and NPC Spokeswoman Justifies Arm Race with the US dated March 5, 2014

Chinese Admiral and NPC Spokeswoman Justifies Arms Race with the US


Real Admiral Yin Zhuo (centre) registers for the CPPCC conference in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua

Real Admiral Yin Zhuo (centre) registers for the CPPCC conference in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua

NPC spokeswoman Fu Ying at the pre-meeting news conference on Tuesday. Photo: Xinhua

NPC spokeswoman Fu Ying at the pre-meeting news conference on Tuesday. Photo: Xinhua

SCMP says in its report yesterday, China’s “Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, told the Southern Metropolis Daily that the US spends six times more than China on defence.”

According to SCMP, to further justify China’s increase in military spending, Yin said,“Its [America’s] total GDP is twice ours, so its military spending is more than six times ours. What qualifications does it have to criticise China’s military spending for being too high?”

In another report today, SCMP quotes NPC spokeswoman Fu Ying as saying, Chinese “people couldn’t live and work in peace and contentment if we don’t have a strong and powerful defence capability.”

According to SCMP, “she denied that the drive to modernise the People’s Liberation Army – supported by China’s double-digit economic growth in the past 20 years – was in part a response to regional neighbours’ territorial disputes with Beijing and the shift in the Obama administration’s policy focus, or the so-called a ‘pivot to Asia’”.

That is typical diplomatic language. As far back as in January 29, 2012, I said in my post “CHINA STEPS UP ITS NAVY BUILDUP”, “In July 2010, China reacted angrily at statements concerning South China Sea disputes by US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton during an Asean security gathering.” Since then China has been “conducting an arms race with America in earnest. It now wants to catch up with and surpass America in military strength as soon as possible because it believes that America wants to bully it.”

The developments since then have proved that I am right. Since then, China has spent a lot to import military technology related to submarine, aircraft, warship, aircraft carrier, etc. The 10% increase in military budget is far from enough for China’s military spending as the government has been subsidized by enterprises in its expensive weapon developments.

The best example is China’s development of stealth fighter jets. Chinese government only funds the development of J-20 stealth fighter, but Chinese aviation industry is developing in addition, J-18 VTOL and J-23, J-25 and J-31 stealth fighters at the expense of the enterprises that develop them.

US government, however, has to enable its weapon producers not only to recover their costs but also earn profits in their weapon development.

Therefore, if we calculate China’s military spending in terms of comparable effects, China’s spending is much bigger than the US and the US will certainly loses in the arms race even if China’s economic growth slows down.

Sources: SCMP “Big defence spender US has no right to criticise China military budget, says admiral” and “Don’t doubt it – China’s ramped-up military spending not a threat to US or Asia, NPC official says”

Related posts:

  • CHINA STEPS UP ITS NAVY BUILDUP date January 29, 2012
  • Arms Race between China and America dated March 5, 2012
  • In Its Arms Race with America China Launches Two Satellites for Its GPS System dated April 30, 2012
  • China: Intensive Arms Race Causes Stress on Elite Engineers dated November 6, 2012
  • Arms Craze: Aircraft Carrier Style takes off in China dated November 27, 2012
  • Chinese Dream and China’s Arms Race with the US January 8, 2013
  • China’s Mysterious F-60 Sixth-Generation Stealth Fighter Jet Appeared on Expressway dated November 2, 2013

Kerry to take harder US line on Asia maritime disputes to China


U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaks during the Munich Security Conference at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich February 1, 2014. Credit: Reuters/Brendan Smialowski/Pool

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaks during the Munich Security Conference at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich February 1, 2014. Credit: Reuters/Brendan Smialowski/Pool

The United States fired a shot across China’s bow a week ago by taking a tougher stance on maritime disputes in East Asia, a message Secretary of State John Kerry will amplify in Beijing this week.

The high tensions in Asia over Beijing’s territorial claims in the East China and SouthChinaSeas will be near the top of Kerry’s agenda when he meets senior Chinese officials on Friday. He will also discuss North Korea and climate change.

Kerry’s top aide for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Assistant Secretary of State Danny Russel, drew a harder U.S. line last week on a series of maritime disputes between China and its neighbors.

“It (Russel’s testimony) certainly indicates a sharper tack in terms of the concerns we have and the steps we want China to take” on maritime disputes, said a senior State Department official. “Secretary Kerry will continue to press the Chinese to refrain from provocative actions and rhetoric and caution against the provocative nature of some of China’s actions.”

Russel faulted recent steps by China, including its November 23 declaration of an air defense zone (ADIZ) in an area of the East China Sea that includes islands at the center of a dispute with Japan, and suggested its South China Sea territorial claims that do not flow from land features are “fundamentally flawed.”

China claims about 90 percent of the 3.5 million square km (1.35 million square miles) South China Sea, depicting what it sees as its area on maps with a so-called nine-dash line, looping far out over the sea from south China.

The United States is increasingly worried that China is trying to gain creeping control of the waters in the Asia-Pacific region and Russel said its claims had “created uncertainty, insecurity and instability.”

Kerry left Washington on Wednesday for a one-week trip to Seoul, Beijing, Jakarta and Abu Dhabi.

Even though it will be Kerry’s fifth visit to Asia since taking office a year ago, he has faced criticism for the time he has devoted to Middle East peace efforts rather than President Barack Obama’s much vaunted policy of rebalancing the U.S. military and economic focus toward Asia.

Doubts about this U.S. commitment were highlighted in October when Obama called off plans to attend two summits in Asia because of a budget crisis at home, so the tougher stance signaled by Russel will be welcome in much of the region outside of China.

Analysts said Russel appeared to firmly blame China for the territorial disputes, warned against any attempt by the Chinese to declare a new ADIZ in the South China Sea and suggested that Chinese claims were not supported by international law.

‘NEW MODEL RELATIONSHIP’

China, in response to Russel’s comments, accused the United States of undermining peace and development in the Asia-Pacific in a Foreign Ministry statement on Saturday that also said “these actions are not constructive.

Chinese officials described Kerry’s trip as an “important” visit in which China would explore ways to strengthen ties and seek to deepen the “new model relationship” proposed when the U.S. and Chinese presidents met in California last year.

“We want to make that concept come alive,” one Chinese official said on Tuesday.

Jonathan Pollack, an analyst with the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, said the United States and China may have very different concepts of a “new model” of great power relationships, a phrase both have used.

“What Kerry will probably say is that the all too frequent kind of truculence that China is demonstrating in relation to a number of its neighbors is hardly the kind of confidence- builder that would leave the U.S. assured of the ability to create that kind of relationship,” Pollack said.

“He will undoubtedly be explicit that the United States wants the relationship with China to be stable and productive in the longer term, but it’s not going to be done at the cost of critical relationships with states that are China’s near neighbors,” he added.

Kerry met Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington on Friday and stressed the U.S. commitment to defend Japan and stability in the Asia-Pacific region against the backdrop of Chinese territorial claims.

The United States flew B-52s through the Chinese air defense zone after it was declared last year. U.S. officials have warned that a declaration of another zone in the South China Sea could result in changes to U.S. military deployments in the region.

Jia Qingguo, associate dean of the School of International Studies at PekingUniversity, said Beijing may try to reassure Kerry it does not want a conflict with Japan, even though it has not backed down over the East China Sea ADIZ.

“You have to stand up to the U.S. when the so-called important interests of China are concerned,” Jia said of the Foreign Ministry’s angry response to Russel’s comments, saying this reflected domestic politics as well as foreign policy.

“But this does not mean that the two countries cannot pragmatically manage this kind of issue,” he said.

The first stop on Kerry’s trip is Seoul, where the main topic is likely to be North Korea, which over the weekend rescinded an invitation to a U.S. diplomat to visit Pyongyang to discuss the fate of an imprisoned U.S. missionary.

Kenneth Bae, a 45-year-old Korean-American, has been held for more than a year in North Korea after being sentenced to 15 years of hard labor on charges of trying to overthrow the state.

The United States has long sought to persuade China to use its economic leverage over the North, which has conducted three nuclear tests, to rein in its nuclear program.

From Seoul he travels on to Beijing and then to Jakarta, where he will give a speech on climate change in a country that is among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change because it is an archipelago made up of more than 17,000 islands.

Source: Reuters “Kerry to take harder U.S. line on Asia maritime disputes to China”

Related posts:

  • US Not Willing to Be Drawn into War by Japan or Philippines dated February 11, 2014
  • US general criticises Japan, Philippines’ anti-China views dated February 10, 2014
  • Insight: Japan unease over U.S. alliance adds fuel to Abe’s security shift dated February 5, 2014
  • What Will the US Do if a War Breaks out between China and Japan? dated February 3, 2014
  • US Vice President Joe Biden Obviously Is Pro-Beijing and Lacks Trust in Abe dated January 30, 2014
  • The Mystery of What Biden Has Got in His Beijing Visit dated December 6, 2014