China May Have 6th-Generation Aircraft Earlier than Russia, US

I mentioned in my post on December 17 the report by “Voice of Russia” on December 14 entitled “China and 6th-Generation Aircraft” that China is not only the only country in the world that is developing two types of 5th-generation aircraft (regarded by some as 4th-generation aircraft), but also a country with plans to vigorously develop a 6th-Generation Aircrafts (regarded by some as 5th-generation aircraft).

Yesterday, eastday.com reports: there has been increasingly more evidence that China does not neglect the development of its 6th-generation aircraft while implementing it plan on its 5th-generation aircrafts. Sources say that not only AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation but also AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Corporation has such research and development plan.

In this respect, Russian strategic analysis and technology center expert Vasily Kashin believes that perhaps, China will begin the work of building the first 6th-generation aircraft in the world in the next decade.

The report is not merely a speculation. As far back as one month ago, China Industry Daily published a report, stating that in the past, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, a key enterprise in developing China’s fighter aircrafts, spent 10 to 15 years to complete the development of a new type of product from planning to production, but now the period has been shortened to 3 to 5 years. For example, it spent only 19 months from planning to building the prototype of China’s second type of 5th-generation stealth fighter J-31. By so doing, it set a new record in both China and the world. J-31 aircraft successfully conducted its virgin flight on October 31.

According to the approach of “producing and improving one generation, research and development for the second, preparatory research for the third and exploration for the fourth” that China has persisted in its weapon development, it is only natural that while conducting research and development for China’s 5th-generation aircraft, China is making preparatory research for the 6th-generation.

As pointed in my previous post, Chinese official media China Industry Daily formally disclosed for the first time that China has begun its research and development for its homegrown 6th-generation fighter. As a result, five countries in the world, i.e. the US, Russia, France, Japan and China, have announced that they have begun the research and development for their 6th-generation fighter. However, the US, Russia and China develop the next generation of fighter on the basis of the successful development of their 5th-generation fighters while France and Japan develop their 6th-generation fighters without development of their 5th-generation fighters.

All those countries have their various ideas, requirements and standards for their fifth-generation fighters as such fighters are all at the research and development stage. Due to confidentiality, even if some progress has been made at that stage, no country is willing to disclose it.

According to assumption by Chinese aviation experts, China’s 5th-generation fighters perhaps have the following performance features: better stealth than 5th-generation aircrafts, highly efficient flight under various circumstances, highly sensitive situation awareness system with perfect sensors, able to conduct both manned and unmanned flight, armed with directed-energy weapons such as electromagnetic cannon and laser weapons, etc. Judging by such technical requirements, 5th-generation aircrafts such as F-22, F-35, T-50 and J-20 are no rivals at all to China’s 6th-generation fighter.

According to experts’ description, China’s 6th-generation fighters will be a new generation of fighters with better information technology, artificial intelligence and integration. It is not only a vehicle for battle but also a carrier of information and a connection of information. On the one hand it is able to transmit real time information about enemy targets to the system network to provide grounds for decision making by the entire system to carry out effective attacks; while on the other hand, it is able to obtain any information it needs from the network so as to give maximum play to its combat potential. This kind of fighter can not only fulfill conventional tasks of air battle and air-to-ground battle in the space in the traditional meaning, but can also surf at the verge of the atmosphere to conduct accurate attack at targets long away.

According to the speed of research and development in AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, 2020 must be the year when China’s 6th-generation fighter emerges. However, according to the established practice in China, AVIC Shengyang and AVIC Chengdu should each develop its own type of 6th-generation separately. As AVIC Chengdu developed its stealth fighter (J-20) earlier than AVIC Shenyang, there is no reason why AVIC Chengdu may fail to invest in the research and development for a 6th-generation fighter. That being the case, China will at least develop two types of 6th-generation fighter (one heavy and one medium) and countless types of stealth unmanned aircrafts such as “Dark Sward (Anjian)”.

Judging by China’s speed in its research and development for its 5th-gneration fighter, the cycle from research and development to production has already been shortened from 10-15 years at the beginning to 3-5 years. That was why it was able to disclose its newest 5th-generation fighters, such as J-31 and J-18. However, though China has its own independent intellectual property over its 5th-generation aircrafts, we cannot deny that in the course of the development, it drew lessons from other countries’ experience in developing such aircrafts and thus have less twists and turns in its work. There is no such shortcut for China in developing its 6th-generation fighters. It has to conduct independent exploration for many of the new high technologies used in such fighters, so that it may take more time in developing such aircrafts.

Over the past few years, China has made huge investment to give full support to the development of high technology for national defense, resulting in new breakthroughs in many weak sectors such as new materials, microelectronics, new processing technology and power systems. Quite a few unique innovations have been achieved in many fields. Moreover its younger research and development personnel have been developing some special surprising new ideas and designs. Therefore, there are justified reasons that Chinese aircraft research workers who have already intensified their efforts to catch up, have the ability and confidence to set a new record in their development of China’s 6th-generation aircrafts.

As for why China is making such tremendous efforts to catch up with world advanced level in developing its 6th-generation aircrafts, it is just as pointed out by Russian media’s analysis: “China sees itself in the remote future as a military superpower equal to and even in some areas surpassing the United States.”

Through recent report and analyses by various media, we may be sure that relevant departments in China have already gone full out in carrying out research and development for the 6th-generation aircrafts and there is hope that at the end of this decade or the beginning of the next decade, China will take the lead in putting out the first 6th-generation fighter in the world.

Sources: Voice of Russia, eastday.com, mil.huanqiu.com

Related post:

China Started Developing 6th-Generation Aircraft, Will Make It in the Next Decade Aircraft dated December 17

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