Obama’s Stupid v. Nixon’s Wise Rebalance
Posted: February 28, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: China, Nixon, Obama, rebalance in Asia, Russia, Soviet Union, US 6 CommentsI wrote my post “The Mystery of China’s Charm Abroad” on February 14 to unravel what British Financial Times regards as a mystery in its article “China and Pakistan make an oddball but enduring couple”.
I explained that China wins friendship with Pakistan due to its charm in pursuing a win-win position abroad while the US, though has given others substantial financial and military aids, are pursuing a win-lose position in Pakistan.
The US has won in killing Bin Laden in Pakistani territory, while Pakistan has lost its national dignity and sovereignty in the event.
I praised China’s current diplomacy aimed at mutual prosperity. By comparison, the US is pursuing a win-lose position.
My reader WhyBro commented:
You are a strange bi-polar man. On the one hand, you correctly see USA as an asshole and China as a reliable and open friend. On the other hand you want USA to contain China.
LOL Very strange indeed.
Then to some of my readers, I to some extent become a mystery to be unraveled.
I write my blog to provide information, praise wise moves and expose stupid moves so that readers will be better informed, enlightened and entertained. I am a Chinese, but I harbor no enmity against the US and have never regarded the US as an asshole though I have written quite a lot to laugh at US stupidity to enlighten and entertain my readers.
However, what I have laughed at is true stupidity. When Chinese are stupid, I also laugh at them. My book Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements is full of descriptions of Chinese stupidity and insanity. However, as such stupidity and insanity brought grievous disasters to Chinese people, I am too sad to laugh.
I have written a lot of posts nowadays as there are indeed too much to write about and too much to laugh at. I simply have not enough time to write.
For example, Obama’s stupid rebalance in Asia.
When the US was defeated in Vietnam, there was imbalance in favor of the Soviet Union in the world. To rebalance, US President Nixon improved US relations with China and gave the Soviet Union the impression that there was a secret alliance between the US and China. He achieved the rebalance in favor of the US. As a result, the Soviet Union enhanced its efforts to pursue détente with the West.
A couple of years ago, Obama began his efforts for rebalance in Asia to contain China. However, at that time, there was absolutely favorable balance for the US. Chinese military was much weaker than the US. China did what the US wanted it to do in the Middle East especially in Libya where China suffered huge losses due to its support for Western military operations there.
China wanted to overcome the imbalance and was making efforts to develop its weapons and military technology, but at that time the imbalance did not worry China as it believed that its relations with the US were quite satisfactory.
Obama’s rebalance in Asia shocked China and made it realize the urgent need for rebalance in favor of China. As a result, China began its arms race with the US in order to catch up and surpass the US in military strength as soon as possible.
That takes time, but fortunately, China has its talented strategist’s teaching that subduing the enemy with diplomacy is better than doing so in war.
Through hard diplomatic efforts and with some luck, China has achieved the rebalance in favor of it by allying with Russia. The combined strength of China and Russia constitutes quite a satisfactory balance to that of the US.
Rebalance?
Turning the balance unfavorable for China into that in favor of China. That is Obama’s stupid rebalance.
Turning the balance unfavorable for the US into that in favor of the US. That was Nixon’s wise rebalance.
US Replaces P-3C with P-8A in the Philippines to Detect Chinese Subs
Posted: February 27, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 4th generation submarine, China, P-3C, P-8A, US 1 Comment
A P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane conducts flyovers above the Enterprise Carrier Strike Group in the Atlantic Ocean in this U.S. Navy picture taken on February 3, 2012.
Credit: Reuters/U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Daniel J. Meshel/Handout
Frustrated by its inability to detect China’s submarines at sea with P-3C from the Philippines or to spy on them near Chinese coast, the US has replaced P-3C Orion with its most advanced P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircrafts with its best anti-submarine technology. P-8A from the Philippines must have better chances to detect Chinese submarines as Chinese submarines have to go though the sea area near the Philippines to high sea. However, if Chinese submarines use the high technology to make them undetectable by P-8C, they will have free entry into and exit from high sea. There has been news that China is successfully developing its fourth-generation nuclear submarine with unprecedented propulsion by magnetic liquid. It, therefore, has no screw propeller or tail or horizontal rudders and may possibly be free of a sail hull. As a result, it generates no mechanical or cruise noise at all and will be a real black hole in ocean. The following is the full text of Reuters report: U.S. flies most advanced surveillance plane from Philippines The United States has begun flying its most advanced surveillance aircraft, the P-8A Poseidon, out of the Philippines for patrols over the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy said on Thursday, acknowledging the flights for the first time. The United States, the Philippines’ oldest and closest ally, has promised to share “real time” information on what is happening in Philippine waters as China steps up its activities in the South China Sea. China claims most of the potentially energy-rich South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims. The U.S. Navy said in a statement it demonstrated the capabilities of P-8A in both littoral and open ocean environments, explaining the aircraft’s multi-mission sensors to Philippine forces. “It was a remarkable opportunity to work alongside the members of the Filipino armed forces,” said U.S. Navy Lieutenant Matthew Pool, Combat Air Crew 4 patrol plane commander. “Sharing this aircraft’s capabilities with our allies only strengthens our bonds.” The United States says it does not take sides in disputes between China and other South China Sea claimants and it calls on them to negotiate a formal maritime Code of Conduct. The Unites States has also called for a freeze on provocative acts in the sea but China rejects U.S. involvement in the dispute. China accuses the United States of emboldening claimants such as the Philippines and Vietnam with its military “pivot” back to Asia. The P-8A was deployed in the Philippines for three weeks until Feb. 21, making more than 180 flight hours over the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy said. Colonel Restituto Padilla, a spokesman for the Philippine armed forces, said the U.S. Navy has been operating P-3C Orions since 2012 from Philippine bases under a bilateral security agreement that sees U.S. forces rotate through the Philippines. He said P-8A aircraft replaced the Orions on the rotations last year but the allies had made no announcement of its flights. “We expect more surveillance planes to be deployed in the Philippines, increasing the frequency of rotation,” Padilla said. Source: Reuters “U.S. flies most advanced surveillance plane from Philippines” China, US, 4th-generation submarine, P-8A, P-3C
Xi Jinping’s ‘Four Comprehensives’, a Strategic Blueprint for China’s Future
Posted: February 26, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: China, Four Comprehensives, Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, moderately prosperous society, party discipline, politics, reforms, rule of law, scientific development, Three Represents, Xi Jinping 4 CommentsJiang Zemin put forth his Three Represents and Hu Jintao put forth his Scientific Outlook on Development. Both are regarded as the legacy guidelines they left for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to follow. Now it is Xi Jinping’s turn. He put forth his “Four Comprehensives” in his speech last December. Just like Jiang Zemin’s first mention of his Three Represents in a speech in 2000, Xi’s mentioning of his Four Comprehensives did not attract much attention until now. CCP mouthpiece the People’s Daily has published and will publish one commentary after another to publicize it as “a strategic blueprint for China’s future”.
I am going to give below the full texts of People’s Daily commentary and Reuters report on the Four Comprehensives:
However, it is interesting to point out that Jiang put forth his Three Represents for the first time in 2000, 11 years after he was appointed CCP general secretary. It indicated the difficulties in establishing his powerbase. Hu put forth his Scientific Outlook on Development within one year after being appointed. It indicated the strong support he got from Jiang the core of the third generation of CCP leadership.
Xi has obtained strong support from not only Jiang, the core, but also other elders so that he was able to put forth his Chinese Dream as soon as he was appointed. Now he has substantiated his Chinese Dream with the Four Comprehensives. It indicates his success in establishing his position as CCP leader.
However, judging by the serious pollution, corruption, overcapacity, excessive local government debts, etc. left behind by Hu Jintao, Hu has not had much success in realizing his Scientific Outlook in developing Chinese economy.
Will Xi be able to realize his Four Comprehensives to “comprehensively build a moderately prosperous society, comprehensively deepen reform, comprehensively implement the rule of law, and comprehensively strengthen Party discipline”?
That is the question.
Deepen reform? Can he surmount the resistance from conservatives and vested interests?
Rule of law? Can China’s judiciary be independent?
Strengthen Party discipline? Can he overcome rampant corruption?
PEOPLE’S DAILY COMMENTARY
Xi’s ‘Four Comprehensives’ a strategic blueprint for China’s future
(Xinhua) 08:20, February 26, 2015
BEIJING – A moderately prosperous society, reform, rule of law, Party discipline — these “Four Comprehensives” are Xi Jinping’s blueprint for China’s future.
The “Four Comprehensives” are tasks raised at Communist Party of China (CPC) meetings over the last two years, since President Xi Jinping took office.
The concept was first mentioned by Xi in December, “..comprehensively build a moderately prosperous society, comprehensively deepen reform, comprehensively implement the rule of law, and comprehensively strengthen Party discipline.”
Shortly after Xi took helm of the CPC in November 2012, he put forward the concept of “the Chinese Dream,” or “the great renewal of the Chinese nation”.
“A moderately prosperous society” is not only the primary objective identified at the 18th Party Congress, but also “a crucial step towards the Chinese dream of great rejuvenation.”
Xi’s first trip as China’s leader was to Shenzhen, symbolic hub of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, and promised “no stop to reform and opening up”.
“Deepening reform” identifies the route to prosperity and social progress.
The “Four Comprehensives” come as China pays greater attention to improving governance following the economic miracle. Social justice has become an important goal.
“The rule of law” came to prominence at the fourth session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, and guarantees modernization of the system of government while championing social justice.
The leadership has taken great pains to address corruption, which they believe may threaten the very survival of the Party and the state: “Strengthening Party discipline” is a must for the CPC to survive.
The “Four Comprehensives” will ensure China continues steadily on its path of development.
REUTERS REPORT
After the ‘Three Represents,’ China pushes ‘Four Comprehensives’
BEIJING Thu Feb 26, 2015 1:13am EST
(Reuters) – Following in the footsteps of Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory and the “Three Represents,” China is promoting President Xi Jinping’s “Four Comprehensives,” calling for rule of law and enforcement of Communist Party discipline.
State media has ratcheted up promotion of the doctrine in the run-up to the country’s annual parliamentary session in March.
The People’s Daily, the ruling Communist Party’s most important mouthpiece, praised the slogan in a front-page commentary on Wednesday. The commentary also appeared on state television and other party-owned news outlets.
The “Four Comprehensives” refer to China working “comprehensively” to build a moderately prosperous society and strengthen reforms, rule of law and party discipline.
Building
Party discipline is Communist Party jargon for efforts to fight corruption. A campaign against graft has formed the centerpiece of Xi’s administration and the leadership has vowed to target both high- and low-level offenders.
Xi has referred to the “Four Comprehensives” in past months but the People’s Daily editorial signals a wide endorsement.
Xi’s best-known slogan so far has been his call for the “Chinese dream”, an ambiguous catchphrase leaders have said refers to national rejuvenation in everything from ties with Taiwan to China’s space program.
Critics say pursuing rule of law is futile without granting independence to courts, which are controlled by the Communist Party. China’s top court on Thursday said it rejected the notion of Western-style judicial independence and separation of powers.
Former President Jiang Zemin was famed for his “Three Represents,” which embraced private entrepreneurs and were written into the party’s constitution.
Hu Jintao, Xi’s immediate predecessor, was primarily known for the economic doctrine of “scientific development”.
I believe that Reuters’ report today on China’s rule of law is also interesting; therefore, I give its full text below:
China’s top court unveils deadlines for legal reform
BEIJING Thu Feb 26, 2015 1:53am EST
(Reuters) – China’s top court set a five-year deadline on Thursday for legal reforms to protect the rights of individuals, prevent miscarriages of justice and make its judiciary more professional as the ruling Communist Party seeks to quell public discontent.
A statement on the Supreme Court’s website promised specific deadlines for each goal, including support for a “social atmosphere of justice” by 2018.
It gave more details of a decision reached at a four-day meeting last year, when the party pledged to speed up legislation to fight corruption and make it tougher for officials to exert control over the judiciary.
Despite the legal reforms, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s administration has shown no interest in political change and has detained dozens of dissidents, including lawyers.
China’s top court stressed that one of the five basic principles of legal reform was adhering to the party’s leadership and “ensuring the correct political orientation”.
He Xiaorong, the director of the Supreme People’s Court’s reform division, said the court “would make officials bear responsibility for dereliction of duty” for cases that have a wide impact.
“Only through the establishment of such a system can we ensure that we can guarantee social fairness and justice in every case,” He told a news conference, according to a transcript on the court’s website.
The measures reflect worries about rising social unrest. Anger over land grabs, corruption and pollution – issues often left unresolved by courts – have resulted in violence between police and residents in recent years, threatening social order.
The court said it would prohibit criminal defendants from wearing vests and jumpsuits to trials, effectively removing the presumption of guilt that is common in China. It pledged to strengthen the prevention of torture to gain evidence and “effectively prevent miscarriages of justice”.
It would also establish a performance evaluation system for judges, “perfect the mechanism for protecting lawyers’ rights” and establish media galleries in courts for certain trials.
It also promised to boost transparency, saying it would make more information available, and reduce local protectionism by changing the jurisdiction of courts.
How much impact the reforms would have was uncertain. Laws are often not enforced and can be abused by the police.
On Wednesday, the court urged party officials to shun Western-style judicial independence and reject “erroneous Western thought”, state media said on Thursday, as controls over the media, dissent and the Internet are tightened.
Source: Reuters “After the ‘Three Represents,’ China pushes ‘Four Comprehensives’” and “China’s top court unveils deadlines for legal reform”
Source: People’s daily “Xi’s ‘Four Comprehensives’ a strategic blueprint for China’s future”
Time for Arrogant US Military to Realize China’s Military Capabilities
Posted: February 26, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: A2/AD, China, Chinese strategy, nuclear submarines, US, US strategy Comments Off on Time for Arrogant US Military to Realize China’s Military Capabilities
Three Chinese Type 094 strategic nuclear submarines mooring at Sanya port
I described US arrogant ignorance in my book Space Era Strategy: The Way China Beats The U.S.
In May 2013, U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert told Congress that despite deploying a current force of 55 submarines, both diesel and nuclear powered, Chinese navy “is not there yet.” “we own the undersea domain,” he said.
That reminds me of General McArthur’s arrogance in the early year of the Korean War. He believed Chinese troops with inferior arms dared not to fight his well-equipped troops that dominated the air and sea, but forgot such inferior troops would certainly try their best to avoid being detected in order to avoid U.S. air raid. It was unbelievable to him that Chinese troops were able to hide in North Korean mountains in spite of the cold weather, but he forgot that it was natural they had to as U.S. bombs are much worse than cold weather.
His arrogance caused him to lose common sense: Failure to detect something did not mean that the thing did not exist.
Greenert forgot that strategic submarine was made to avoid detection by others; therefore, it was only natural that the U.S. could not detect the strategic submarines China had made and deployed.
China continued to make and deploy strategic submarines to have a submarine fleet of 55, but none of them were able to go to the ocean to carry out vital second strike. Did that make any sense?
If Greenert had not been arrogant, he would have said, “We have never detected any activities of China’s submarines. It seems they have left the entire oceans to us.”
China realized the danger that US ignorance of China’s nuclear second-strike capability may cause the US to attack China with nuclear weapons rashly; therefore, it revealed the existence of its nuclear submarines that the US had been unable to detect through a China-backed Hong Kong magazine The Mirror.
However, arrogant US military regarded Mirror’s report as but boasting. When there was risk of war between China and Japan that might involve the US. For fear of US nuclear retaliation when China had sunk a US submarine (China was confident it was able to do so near its coast), from October 27 to 29, 2013, China’s top official media CCTV displayed in its primetime news footages about China’s strategic submarines.
In February 2014, China showcased its three nuclear submarines at Sanya, Hainan Province.
Reuters report today titled “China submarines outnumber U.S. fleet: U.S. admiral” tells us that US arrogant military has awakened from its arrogant dream. However, compared with what I reveal in my book, US admiral knows less than me about China’s nuclear submarines.
However, it seems to me that US military has not fully awakened.
In a lecture at ifeng TV earlier this month, Chinese Rear Admiral Yang Yi, former director at the Institute for Strategic Studies at China’s National Defense University and currently deputy head of the strategy branch of China’s military society, said he told US officers several times when he met them that the US was wrong in regarding A2/AD (anti-access and area denial) as China’s strategy. It is in fact not China’s strategy. However, US military perhaps just ignored his words and keeps on studying its way to counter what it wrongly regarded as China’s A2/AD strategy.
I point out in my book that China has obtained the capabilities to achieve its strategic goal of wiping out US aircraft carrier battle groups near China’s coast and is developing its integrated space and air capabilities for both attack and defense for its strategic goal of wiping out US navy at high sea in order to defend China’s trade lifelines.
China’s gifted strategist Sun Tze says in his The Art of War, “Know oneself and know one’s enemy, one will never be in peril in war. Know oneself but not one’s enemy, one has a half chance to win and a half chance to lose.” Obviously, the US fails or even refuses to know China.
I doubt whether the US knows itself.
What was US strategic goal in invading Iraq? If its goal was to ensure that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction or to prevent Saddam from supporting Islamic extremists, it should not have overthrown Iraqi Saddam regime since it was found by the invasion that Saddam neither had weapons of mass destruction nor supported Islamic extremists. It had to withdraw its troops after such a goal had been achieved.
If its goal was to bring democracy to Iraq by military invasion, it will lose American people’s support as most of them are peace loving and do not want to change another countries’ political system by US military force. As a result, the US had to withdraw before it was able to set up a stable democracy in Iraq, resulting in helping Islamic extremists grow strong there and arming them with US weapons.
Now, what is US strategic goal in Afghanistan? Can we have any clear idea?
The following is the full text of Reuters report:
China submarines outnumber U.S. fleet: U.S. admiral
China is building some “fairly amazing submarines” and now has more diesel- and nuclear-powered vessels than the United States, a top U.S. Navy admiral told U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, although he said their quality was inferior.
Vice Admiral Joseph Mulloy, deputy chief of naval operations for capabilities and resources, told the House Armed Services Committee’s seapower subcommittee that China was also expanding the geographic areas of operation for its submarines, and their length of deployment.
For instance, China had carried out three deployments in the Indian Ocean, and had kept vessels out at sea for 95 days, Mulloy said.
“We know they are out experimenting and looking at operating and clearly want to be in this world of advanced submarines,” Mulloy told the committee.
U.S. military officials in recent months have grown increasingly vocal about China’s military buildup and launched a major push to ensure that U.S. military technology stays ahead of rapid advances by China and Russia.
Mulloy said the quality of China’s submarines was lower than those built by the United States, but the size of its undersea fleet had now surpassed that of the U.S. fleet. A spokeswoman said the U.S. Navy had 71 commissioned U.S. submarines.
U.S. submarines are built by Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. and General Dynamics Corp.
In its last annual report to Congress about China’s military and security developments, the Pentagon said China had 77 principal surface combatant ships, more than 60 submarines, 55 large and medium amphibious ships, and about 85 missile-equipped small combatants.
Mulloy did not provide details about the number of surface ships now operated by China.
He said the U.S. military did not believe China carried nuclear missiles on its submarines, but that it had been producing missiles and testing them.
Note: This shows the admiral is muddleheaded. How can Chinese strategic nuclear submarines conduct nuclear second strike if they do not carry nuclear missiles?
Source: Chan Kai Yee Space Era Strategy: The Way China Beats The U.S.
Source: Reuters “China submarines outnumber U.S. fleet: U.S. admiral”
China Xi Jinping’s Focus on New Bombers
Posted: February 25, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: China, H-6, H-6K, H-6M bomber, space and air capabilities, Xi Jinping 14 Comments
The H-6M and its weapons displayed at Zhuhai airshow
On the eve of China’s Lunar New Year festival, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited troops in Xian, Shaanxi Province, Northwest China. What drew people’s keen interest was that he personally boarded an H-6 bomber to learn about the functions of its equipment.
H-6 is a quite outdated bomber. Its newest improved version H-6M has only a range of 3,500 km. Though the air-to-ground cruise missiles it carries has a maximum range of 2,500 km to enable it to attack all US military basis in northeastern Asia and the Guam, it is slow with a subsonic speed and is not stealthy; therefore, there is little hope for it to break enemy air defense. Moreover, judging by its engines, its maximum takeoff weight is but 90 tons, too low compared with US and Russian bombers.
Why then was Xi’s high-profile visit of the outdated bomber?
It shows his great interest in the development of Chinese bombers, which is essential for China to achieve integrated space and air capabilities for both attack and defense.
Source: huanqiu.com “Experts: H-6 armed with cruise missiles can cover US military bases in northeastern Asia” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)
China’s First Homegrown C919 Large Airliner to Be Fully Assembled in 2015
Posted: February 23, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: ARJ21, C919, China, China-made airliner 21 CommentsChina’s ARJ21 78-seat airliner was certified airworthy at the end of 2014 after six years of test.
Research and development of China’s C919 168-seat large airliner are in full swing now. Most of the staff returned to the factory at February 22, three days before the 7-day Lunar New Year holiday and began working hard on Sunday.
Working overtime on holidays has become a routine for the workers for the C919 project. Now, the construction of all the sections of the large airliner has been completed. All the sections have been delivered at the assembly workshop. Assembly of the first C919 prototype will be fully completed within 2015.
Source: xinhuanet.com “All assembly work of China’s first C919 homegrown large airliner will be completed within this year” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)
Can China break the vicious circle of economic slowdown and foreign capital exodus?
Posted: February 23, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: China, economic reform, economic slowdown, foreign capital exodus, Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping 2 CommentsIs China’s economic slowdown causing the foreign capital exodus or vice versa? It is like the old question: which came first, the chicken or the egg? Let’s look at both scenarios.
Economic slowdown has caused capital exodus.
Taiwan media Want China Times says in its report “Foreign manufacturer exodus from China”, “With the Chinese economy slowing down and its population dividend diminishing, foreign capital has been exiting the market at an accelerated pace”.
Exodus has been caused by high labor cost instead of slowdown.
In its report “Exodus of Foreign Enterprises Quickens: There Is Fear of Closedown of 100 More Large Factories in Dongguan”, Hong Kong’s Singtao Daily also ascribes the exodus to the lower labor cost in Southeast China.
Japan’s Citizen has closed its production base in Guangzhou while US Microsoft’s Nokia has planned to close its factory in Dongguan this year
According to China’s http://www.ce.cn, Japan’s Panasonic, Sharp, Daikin and TDK have planned to transfer production capacity from China back to Japan while well-known foreign enterprises such as Uniqlo, Nike, Foxconn and Samsung have set up new factories in Southeast Asia and India in preparations for exodus.
Foreign capital exodus has caused closedown of some large Chinese enterprises in Dongguan City that supply parts or processing products for foreign enterprises in China. Singtao says that it is estimated that about 100 more large enterprises will close down due to the exodus resulting in the unemployment of hundreds of thousands workers there.
The serious unemployment due to the exodus reduces demand in Chinese market and thus gives rise to economic slowdown.
Then it’s the exodus that causes the slowdown.
Anyway, no matter which came first slowdown or exodus, slowdown will give rise to exodus while exodus will give rise to slowdown. It is a vicious circle.
The difficult question is: How can China break that vicious circle?
Hu Jintao wanted to replace the development model that relies on export and excessive investment for economic growth by the model that relies on domestic consumption and innovation. He failed to achieve the replacement due to resistance from conservatives and vested interests.
Now, it’s Xi Jinping’s turn. Will he be able to overcome the resistance? Let’s wait and see.
Source: Singtao Daily “Exodus of Foreign Enterprises Quickens: There Is Fear of Closedown of 100 More Large Factories in Dongguan” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)
Source: Want China Times “Foreign manufacturer exodus from China”
Obama Succeeds in Pitting India against China
Posted: February 22, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Ashok Kantha, China, India, Liu Zhenmin, Modi, Obama, Sri Lanka, US 8 CommentsSome people regard the territorial disputes between India and China as a major issue to exploit in pitting India against China. In fact, the disputed areas give neither China nor India advantage to attack the other as their geological layout facilitates defense. The two countries deploy heavily armed troops there for defense instead of attack.
When China had improved ties with Russia, Russia used its influence to ease the tension at Chinese-Indian borders.
Former US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta tried in vain to ask India to join the US in encircling China.
US President Obama seems to have had some diplomatic experience after working as the president for more than six years. He knows that now he has the opportunity to pit India against China.
China’s establishment of maritime Silk Road aims at safeguarding its trade lifelines through the India Ocean. For that it shall have some supply bases and even military bases along the Silk Road. That was why it got Sri Lanka’s permission for its warships and submarines to use Sri Lankan ports.
China’s rise has long since worried India due to the uncertainly whether China will become an aggressor to dominate the world when it becomes world number one. India regards China’s activities in Sri Lanka as a threat to its national security. It has tried hard to sabotage the economic cooperation between Sri Lanka and China, but as China is willing to offer Sri Lanka very preferential terms, India fails to succeed in severing the ties between China and Sri Lanka.
India urgently needs US help to contain China. Seeing the opportunity to have India as an ally in containing China, Obama promised to provide US aircraft carrier technology for India to contain China in the Indian Ocean. That is something exceptional as no other country has ever been able to obtain such technology from the US.
To please the US, India has begun to challenge China. Its Prime Minister Modi visited disputed border region and promised to make substantial investment to develop the region. Reuters published a report yesterday on China’s response. The following is the full text of the report:
China protests at Indian PM’s visit to disputed border region
China has lodged an official protest against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to a border region claimed by both countries.
China disputes the entire territory of the northeast Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, calling it south Tibet. Its historic town Tawang, a key site for Tibetan Buddhism, was briefly occupied by Chinese forces during a 1962 war.
“The Chinese government has never recognized the so-called ‘Arunachal Pradesh’,” a statement on the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website said on Friday, adding that Modi’s visit was “not conducive” to developing bilateral relations.
Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin told India’s Ambassador to China Ashok Kantha on Saturday that China was firmly opposed to the visit.
“The Indian side’s insistence on arranging activities by leaders in the disputed region infringes on China’s territorial sovereignty and interests, magnifies the dispute on the border issue, and violates the consensus to appropriately handle the border issue,” a separate ministry statement cited Liu as saying.
Modi visited Arunachal Pradesh on Friday to inaugurate the opening of a train line and power station. He did not mention China but pledged billions of dollars of investment to develop infrastructure in the region.
“I assure you that you will witness more development in the state in the next five years than it has seen in the last 28 years,” Modi said, addressing a huge crowd.
Faster transport links and exploitation of Arunachal Pradesh’s hydro-electric potential are the keys to fighting poverty and bringing about rapid development in the frontier state, he said.
In January, China objected to statements by Japan’s Foreign Ministry supporting India’s claim to the region.
A visit by U.S. President Barack Obama to India in January was widely seen as a sign Modi is moving closer to the United States, to offset rising Chinese influence in Asia and, in particular, intensifying activity by the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean.
Source: Reuters “China protests at Indian PM’s visit to disputed border region”
France Secretly Provides China with Top Radar, Air-to-air Missile
Posted: February 20, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: AMRAAM, China, France, India, JF-17, MBDA, MICA, Pakistan, RC-400, Taiwan 151 Comments
JF-17 fighter jet jointly developed by China and Pakistan
According to Britain’s Jane’s Defense weekly, China may get through Pakistan the the technology in Franch MICA air-to-air missile and RC-400 radar, which the EU bans sales to China. Such technology may constitute a threat to the Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets that Taiwan has got from France.
Pakistan is to get the above-mentioned missiles and radar from France for its JF-17 fighter jets. As JF-17 is jointly developed by Pakistan and China, when Pakistan has got the missile and radar, it is quite possible that China will get the technologies in the missile and radar.
MICA is as good as US advanced AMRAAM air-to-air missile. It is well-known for its accuracy and controllability. China may obtain its technology through reverse engineering from a MICA missile provided by Pakistan.
In developing its J-10 fighter jet, China has reference to the technologies in American F-16 fighter jet as it was able to study in details an F-16 provided by Pakistan.
To prevent China from obtaining French weapon technologies with similar approach, the US will strongly oppose French sales of the weapons to Pakistan. For the same reason India, a major buyer of French weapons, will also oppose.
To avoid such oppositions, MBDA spokesman denied what he previously told Associated Press about its competition with others to get an order for MICA. French defense ministry, however, told Associated Press, there were no reasons that France should not cooperate with Pakistan though it had not confirmed the existence of such transactions.
Source: qianzhan.com “Janes: France secretly ships its top weapons to China, which may be a threat to Taiwan” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)
With J-20 on Artificial Islands China Will Dominate the South China Sea
Posted: February 20, 2015 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: China, Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef, Philippines, PLA, South Sea military base, US, Zhongye Island 2 CommentsIn my post “Chinese Troops to Seize Zhongye Island Back from the Philippines in 2014” on January 11, 2014, I said, “Chinese Troops to Seize Zhongye Island Back from the Philippines in 2014”.
In my post two days later, I said, “The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the Ford costs $12.8 billion to build but has only a deck area of 0.026 square km. An air base established on Zhongye Island will be a dozen times larger and cost much less, but it is unsinkable and has a very long service life.” Therefore, I gave the post the title “China & Philippines Battle for Zhongye (Pag-asa) Island Seems Unavoidable”.
As the Philippines has no navy or air force to counter China’s, taking the islands and reefs by military attack from the Philippines needs little effort, but it will do great harm to China’s relations with the US and ASEAN. Chinese leaders did not approve Navy’s plan to attack Zhongye Island.
As an alternative to taking the island to control the South China Sea, China drew up a plan of large-scale reclamation at Fire Cross Reef and Mischief Reef.
I revealed China’s reclamation plan in my post “China to Build USD5 Billion South China Sea Military Base at Fiery Cross Reef” on February 12, 2014.
I said in my post:
The artificial island at Fiery Cross Reef will be an unreplaceable military base with great strategic significance due to its location and size. Such a base will realize the value of the South China Sea for China and ensure China’s status in South East Asia.
It is planned that the military base built through reclamation at Fiery Cross Reef will be 3 meters above sea level and has an area of 5 square kilometers. The construction of the base will cost US$5 billion and take 10 years similar to the construction of a 100,000-ton nuclear aircraft carrier.
If this plan is adopted by the government instead of the plan to seize back the Zhongye Island back from the Philippines, there will be no war at the South China Sea to affect China’s relations with the US and ASEAN.
It turns out that China has a plan of much larger scale to build seven large artificial islands and that it is able to build the islands very quickly. It shows its tremendous financial and technological power.
Reuters report today on China’s construction of artificial islands gives readers a rough idea of what is going on there, but it is wrong to believe that “the new islands won’t overturn U.S. military superiority in the region”.
Military bases on the seven islands will enable China to dominate the air and sea in the South China Sea when China has deployed its fleets of J-20 stealth fighter jets on the islands.
The following is the full text of Reuters report:
China to project power from artificial islands in South China Sea
China’s creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea is happening so fast that Beijing will be able to extend the range of its navy, air force, coastguard and fishing fleets before long, much to the alarm of rival claimants to the contested waters.
Reclamation work is well advanced on six reefs in the Spratly archipelago, according to recently published satellite photographs and Philippine officials. In addition, Manila said this month that Chinese dredgers had started reclaiming a seventh.
While the new islands won’t overturn U.S. military superiority in the region, Chinese workers are building ports and fuel storage depots as well as possibly two airstrips that experts said would allow Beijing to project power deep into the maritime heart of Southeast Asia.
“These reclamations are bigger and more ambitious than we all thought,” said one Western diplomat. “On many different levels it’s going to be exceptionally difficult to counter China in the South China Sea as this develops.”
China claims most of the potentially energy rich South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims.
All but Brunei have fortified bases in the Spratlys, which lie roughly 1,300 km (810 miles) from the Chinese mainland but much closer to the Southeast Asian claimants.
Beijing has rejected diplomatic protests by Manila and Hanoi and criticism from Washington over the reclamation, saying the work falls “within the scope of China’s sovereignty”.
The Philippines began expressing growing concern in mid-2014, in particular, accusing Beijing of building an airstrip on Johnson South Reef.
Satellite analysis published by IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly this week showed a new installation being built on Hughes Reef. It described a “large facility” having been constructed on 75,000 square meters of sand reclaimed since August.
It also published images of Fiery Cross Reef, which now includes a reclaimed island more than 3 km (1.8 miles) long that experts said would likely become a runway.
Work is also well established on Gaven, Cuarteron and Eldad Reefs, with the new dredging taking place on Mischief Reef.
BOON FOR FISHERMEN
While the prospect of China using the artificial islands to refuel warplanes in any conflict was a possibility, some experts highlighted significant non-military benefits.
China could keep its fishing fleets and coastguard working in Southeast Asia more effectively, with crews able to re-supply and rest, said Carl Thayer, a South China Sea expert at Canberra’s Australian Defence Force Academy. Oil explorers would similarly benefit.
Reuters reported in July that Chinese authorities were encouraging fishermen to sail to the Spratlys, often providing fuel subsidies to help.
Before the reclamation, China’s facilities were limited to squat buildings and radar domes built on rocky outcrops, with limited berthing and storage facilities, a contrast to natural islands occupied by Taiwan and the Philippines.
“Even before you factor in military questions, the expansion of Chinese fishing and coastguard fleets is going to be a strategic shift that is going to be very hard for anyone to counter,” said Thayer.
“And then you will have the navy just over the horizon.”
Thayer noted that while no legal claim could be extended from an artificial island, China would effectively move to force rival countries from the surrounding seas.
Chinese strategic analysts said the build-up was being driven by what Beijing sees as security threats, especially the need to check Vietnam, which has had up until now the most holdings in the Spratlys, with 25 bases on shoals and reefs. Vietnam is also quietly building up its submarine fleet to counter China.
The two Communist Party-ruled neighbors clashed at sea in 1988 when China took its first Spratly holdings, including Fiery Cross Reef, from Vietnam.
Some regional military attaches believe China may eventually use helicopter facilities on the new islands to run anti-submarine operations.
“This is less about politics and legal issues and more about security, from China’s perspective,” said Zhang Baohui, a mainland defense specialist at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University.
STRATEGIC GAP
Gary Li, an independent security analyst in Beijing, said he believed any military pay-off would be relatively small from the new islands, given their distance from the Chinese mainland.
“I suspect these reclamations would only ever have localized tactical uses in military terms,” Li said.
China’s lack of offshore military bases and friendly ports to call on was apparent last year when Chinese naval supply vessels sailed to Australia to replenish warships helping look for a missing Malaysian airliner in the Indian Ocean.
Naval planners know they will have to fill this strategic gap to meet Beijing’s desire for a fully operational blue-water navy by 2050.
More immediately, some analysts said they believed the islands would give China the reach to create and police an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) above the South China Sea.
China sparked condemnation from Japan and the United States when it imposed an ADIZ, where aircraft are supposed to identify themselves to Chinese authorities, above the East China Sea in late 2013. China has denied speculation it would follow suit in the South China Sea.
Roilo Golez, a former Philippine national security adviser, predicted China would complete its reclamation work by early next year and announce an ADIZ within three years.
“They are connecting the dots. They’re putting real muscle into this,” Golez said.
Source: Reuters “China to project power from artificial islands in South China Sea”
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