Obama’s Stupid v. Nixon’s Wise Rebalance


I wrote my post “The Mystery of China’s Charm Abroad” on February 14 to unravel what British Financial Times regards as a mystery in its article “China and Pakistan make an oddball but enduring couple”.

I explained that China wins friendship with Pakistan due to its charm in pursuing a win-win position abroad while the US, though has given others substantial financial and military aids, are pursuing a win-lose position in Pakistan.

The US has won in killing Bin Laden in Pakistani territory, while Pakistan has lost its national dignity and sovereignty in the event.

I praised China’s current diplomacy aimed at mutual prosperity. By comparison, the US is pursuing a win-lose position.

My reader WhyBro commented:

You are a strange bi-polar man. On the one hand, you correctly see USA as an asshole and China as a reliable and open friend. On the other hand you want USA to contain China.

LOL Very strange indeed.

Then to some of my readers, I to some extent become a mystery to be unraveled.

I write my blog to provide information, praise wise moves and expose stupid moves so that readers will be better informed, enlightened and entertained. I am a Chinese, but I harbor no enmity against the US and have never regarded the US as an asshole though I have written quite a lot to laugh at US stupidity to enlighten and entertain my readers.

However, what I have laughed at is true stupidity. When Chinese are stupid, I also laugh at them. My book Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements is full of descriptions of Chinese stupidity and insanity. However, as such stupidity and insanity brought grievous disasters to Chinese people, I am too sad to laugh.

I have written a lot of posts nowadays as there are indeed too much to write about and too much to laugh at. I simply have not enough time to write.

For example, Obama’s stupid rebalance in Asia.

When the US was defeated in Vietnam, there was imbalance in favor of the Soviet Union in the world. To rebalance, US President Nixon improved US relations with China and gave the Soviet Union the impression that there was a secret alliance between the US and China. He achieved the rebalance in favor of the US. As a result, the Soviet Union enhanced its efforts to pursue détente with the West.

A couple of years ago, Obama began his efforts for rebalance in Asia to contain China. However, at that time, there was absolutely favorable balance for the US. Chinese military was much weaker than the US. China did what the US wanted it to do in the Middle East especially in Libya where China suffered huge losses due to its support for Western military operations there.

China wanted to overcome the imbalance and was making efforts to develop its weapons and military technology, but at that time the imbalance did not worry China as it believed that its relations with the US were quite satisfactory.

Obama’s rebalance in Asia shocked China and made it realize the urgent need for rebalance in favor of China. As a result, China began its arms race with the US in order to catch up and surpass the US in military strength as soon as possible.

That takes time, but fortunately, China has its talented strategist’s teaching that subduing the enemy with diplomacy is better than doing so in war.

Through hard diplomatic efforts and with some luck, China has achieved the rebalance in favor of it by allying with Russia. The combined strength of China and Russia constitutes quite a satisfactory balance to that of the US.

Rebalance?

Turning the balance unfavorable for China into that in favor of China. That is Obama’s stupid rebalance.

Turning the balance unfavorable for the US into that in favor of the US. That was Nixon’s wise rebalance.

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US Replaces P-3C with P-8A in the Philippines to Detect Chinese Subs


A P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane conducts flyovers above the Enterprise Carrier Strike Group in the Atlantic Ocean in this U.S. Navy picture taken on February 3, 2012.  Credit: Reuters/U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Daniel J. Meshel/Handout

A P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane conducts flyovers above the Enterprise Carrier Strike Group in the Atlantic Ocean in this U.S. Navy picture taken on February 3, 2012.
Credit: Reuters/U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Daniel J. Meshel/Handout

Frustrated by its inability to detect China’s submarines at sea with P-3C from the Philippines or to spy on them near Chinese coast, the US has replaced P-3C Orion with its most advanced P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircrafts with its best anti-submarine technology. P-8A from the Philippines must have better chances to detect Chinese submarines as Chinese submarines have to go though the sea area near the Philippines to high sea. However, if Chinese submarines use the high technology to make them undetectable by P-8C, they will have free entry into and exit from high sea. There has been news that China is successfully developing its fourth-generation nuclear submarine with unprecedented propulsion by magnetic liquid. It, therefore, has no screw propeller or tail or horizontal rudders and may possibly be free of a sail hull. As a result, it generates no mechanical or cruise noise at all and will be a real black hole in ocean. The following is the full text of Reuters report: U.S. flies most advanced surveillance plane from Philippines The United States has begun flying its most advanced surveillance aircraft, the P-8A Poseidon, out of the Philippines for patrols over the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy said on Thursday, acknowledging the flights for the first time. The United States, the Philippines’ oldest and closest ally, has promised to share “real time” information on what is happening in Philippine waters as China steps up its activities in the South China Sea. China claims most of the potentially energy-rich South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims. The U.S. Navy said in a statement it demonstrated the capabilities of P-8A in both littoral and open ocean environments, explaining the aircraft’s multi-mission sensors to Philippine forces. “It was a remarkable opportunity to work alongside the members of the Filipino armed forces,” said U.S. Navy Lieutenant Matthew Pool, Combat Air Crew 4 patrol plane commander. “Sharing this aircraft’s capabilities with our allies only strengthens our bonds.” The United States says it does not take sides in disputes between China and other South China Sea claimants and it calls on them to negotiate a formal maritime Code of Conduct. The Unites States has also called for a freeze on provocative acts in the sea but China rejects U.S. involvement in the dispute. China accuses the United States of emboldening claimants such as the Philippines and Vietnam with its military “pivot” back to Asia. The P-8A was deployed in the Philippines for three weeks until Feb. 21, making more than 180 flight hours over the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy said. Colonel Restituto Padilla, a spokesman for the Philippine armed forces, said the U.S. Navy has been operating P-3C Orions since 2012 from Philippine bases under a bilateral security agreement that sees U.S. forces rotate through the Philippines. He said P-8A aircraft replaced the Orions on the rotations last year but the allies had made no announcement of its flights. “We expect more surveillance planes to be deployed in the Philippines, increasing the frequency of rotation,” Padilla said. Source: Reuters “U.S. flies most advanced surveillance plane from Philippines” China, US, 4th-generation submarine, P-8A, P-3C


Xi Jinping’s ‘Four Comprehensives’, a Strategic Blueprint for China’s Future


Jiang Zemin put forth his Three Represents and Hu Jintao put forth his Scientific Outlook on Development. Both are regarded as the legacy guidelines they left for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to follow. Now it is Xi Jinping’s turn. He put forth his “Four Comprehensives” in his speech last December. Just like Jiang Zemin’s first mention of his Three Represents in a speech in 2000, Xi’s mentioning of his Four Comprehensives did not attract much attention until now. CCP mouthpiece the People’s Daily has published and will publish one commentary after another to publicize it as “a strategic blueprint for China’s future”.

I am going to give below the full texts of People’s Daily commentary and Reuters report on the Four Comprehensives:

However, it is interesting to point out that Jiang put forth his Three Represents for the first time in 2000, 11 years after he was appointed CCP general secretary. It indicated the difficulties in establishing his powerbase. Hu put forth his Scientific Outlook on Development within one year after being appointed. It indicated the strong support he got from Jiang the core of the third generation of CCP leadership.

Xi has obtained strong support from not only Jiang, the core, but also other elders so that he was able to put forth his Chinese Dream as soon as he was appointed. Now he has substantiated his Chinese Dream with the Four Comprehensives. It indicates his success in establishing his position as CCP leader.

However, judging by the serious pollution, corruption, overcapacity, excessive local government debts, etc. left behind by Hu Jintao, Hu has not had much success in realizing his Scientific Outlook in developing Chinese economy.

Will Xi be able to realize his Four Comprehensives to “comprehensively build a moderately prosperous society, comprehensively deepen reform, comprehensively implement the rule of law, and comprehensively strengthen Party discipline”?

That is the question.

Deepen reform? Can he surmount the resistance from conservatives and vested interests?

Rule of law? Can China’s judiciary be independent?

Strengthen Party discipline? Can he overcome rampant corruption?

PEOPLE’S DAILY COMMENTARY

Xi’s ‘Four Comprehensives’ a strategic blueprint for China’s future
(Xinhua) 08:20, February 26, 2015

BEIJING – A moderately prosperous society, reform, rule of law, Party discipline — these “Four Comprehensives” are Xi Jinping’s blueprint for China’s future.

The “Four Comprehensives” are tasks raised at Communist Party of China (CPC) meetings over the last two years, since President Xi Jinping took office.

The concept was first mentioned by Xi in December, “..comprehensively build a moderately prosperous society, comprehensively deepen reform, comprehensively implement the rule of law, and comprehensively strengthen Party discipline.”

Shortly after Xi took helm of the CPC in November 2012, he put forward the concept of “the Chinese Dream,” or “the great renewal of the Chinese nation”.

“A moderately prosperous society” is not only the primary objective identified at the 18th Party Congress, but also “a crucial step towards the Chinese dream of great rejuvenation.”

Xi’s first trip as China’s leader was to Shenzhen, symbolic hub of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, and promised “no stop to reform and opening up”.

“Deepening reform” identifies the route to prosperity and social progress.

The “Four Comprehensives” come as China pays greater attention to improving governance following the economic miracle. Social justice has become an important goal.

“The rule of law” came to prominence at the fourth session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, and guarantees modernization of the system of government while championing social justice.

The leadership has taken great pains to address corruption, which they believe may threaten the very survival of the Party and the state: “Strengthening Party discipline” is a must for the CPC to survive.

The “Four Comprehensives” will ensure China continues steadily on its path of development.

REUTERS REPORT

After the ‘Three Represents,’ China pushes ‘Four Comprehensives’
BEIJING Thu Feb 26, 2015 1:13am EST

(Reuters) – Following in the footsteps of Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory and the “Three Represents,” China is promoting President Xi Jinping’s “Four Comprehensives,” calling for rule of law and enforcement of Communist Party discipline.

State media has ratcheted up promotion of the doctrine in the run-up to the country’s annual parliamentary session in March.

The People’s Daily, the ruling Communist Party’s most important mouthpiece, praised the slogan in a front-page commentary on Wednesday. The commentary also appeared on state television and other party-owned news outlets.

The “Four Comprehensives” refer to China working “comprehensively” to build a moderately prosperous society and strengthen reforms, rule of law and party discipline.

Building
Party discipline is Communist Party jargon for efforts to fight corruption. A campaign against graft has formed the centerpiece of Xi’s administration and the leadership has vowed to target both high- and low-level offenders.

Xi has referred to the “Four Comprehensives” in past months but the People’s Daily editorial signals a wide endorsement.

Xi’s best-known slogan so far has been his call for the “Chinese dream”, an ambiguous catchphrase leaders have said refers to national rejuvenation in everything from ties with Taiwan to China’s space program.

Critics say pursuing rule of law is futile without granting independence to courts, which are controlled by the Communist Party. China’s top court on Thursday said it rejected the notion of Western-style judicial independence and separation of powers.

Former President Jiang Zemin was famed for his “Three Represents,” which embraced private entrepreneurs and were written into the party’s constitution.

Hu Jintao, Xi’s immediate predecessor, was primarily known for the economic doctrine of “scientific development”.

I believe that Reuters’ report today on China’s rule of law is also interesting; therefore, I give its full text below:

China’s top court unveils deadlines for legal reform
BEIJING Thu Feb 26, 2015 1:53am EST

(Reuters) – China’s top court set a five-year deadline on Thursday for legal reforms to protect the rights of individuals, prevent miscarriages of justice and make its judiciary more professional as the ruling Communist Party seeks to quell public discontent.

A statement on the Supreme Court’s website promised specific deadlines for each goal, including support for a “social atmosphere of justice” by 2018.

It gave more details of a decision reached at a four-day meeting last year, when the party pledged to speed up legislation to fight corruption and make it tougher for officials to exert control over the judiciary.

Despite the legal reforms, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s administration has shown no interest in political change and has detained dozens of dissidents, including lawyers.

China’s top court stressed that one of the five basic principles of legal reform was adhering to the party’s leadership and “ensuring the correct political orientation”.

He Xiaorong, the director of the Supreme People’s Court’s reform division, said the court “would make officials bear responsibility for dereliction of duty” for cases that have a wide impact.

“Only through the establishment of such a system can we ensure that we can guarantee social fairness and justice in every case,” He told a news conference, according to a transcript on the court’s website.

The measures reflect worries about rising social unrest. Anger over land grabs, corruption and pollution – issues often left unresolved by courts – have resulted in violence between police and residents in recent years, threatening social order.

The court said it would prohibit criminal defendants from wearing vests and jumpsuits to trials, effectively removing the presumption of guilt that is common in China. It pledged to strengthen the prevention of torture to gain evidence and “effectively prevent miscarriages of justice”.

It would also establish a performance evaluation system for judges, “perfect the mechanism for protecting lawyers’ rights” and establish media galleries in courts for certain trials.

It also promised to boost transparency, saying it would make more information available, and reduce local protectionism by changing the jurisdiction of courts.

How much impact the reforms would have was uncertain. Laws are often not enforced and can be abused by the police.

On Wednesday, the court urged party officials to shun Western-style judicial independence and reject “erroneous Western thought”, state media said on Thursday, as controls over the media, dissent and the Internet are tightened.

Source: Reuters “After the ‘Three Represents,’ China pushes ‘Four Comprehensives’” and “China’s top court unveils deadlines for legal reform”

Source: People’s daily “Xi’s ‘Four Comprehensives’ a strategic blueprint for China’s future”


Time for Arrogant US Military to Realize China’s Military Capabilities


Three Type 094 strategic nuclear submarines mooring at Sanya port

Three Chinese Type 094 strategic nuclear submarines mooring at Sanya port

I described US arrogant ignorance in my book Space Era Strategy: The Way China Beats The U.S.

In May 2013, U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert told Congress that despite deploying a current force of 55 submarines, both diesel and nuclear powered, Chinese navy “is not there yet.” “we own the undersea domain,” he said.

That reminds me of General McArthur’s arrogance in the early year of the Korean War. He believed Chinese troops with inferior arms dared not to fight his well-equipped troops that dominated the air and sea, but forgot such inferior troops would certainly try their best to avoid being detected in order to avoid U.S. air raid. It was unbelievable to him that Chinese troops were able to hide in North Korean mountains in spite of the cold weather, but he forgot that it was natural they had to as U.S. bombs are much worse than cold weather.

His arrogance caused him to lose common sense: Failure to detect something did not mean that the thing did not exist.

Greenert forgot that strategic submarine was made to avoid detection by others; therefore, it was only natural that the U.S. could not detect the strategic submarines China had made and deployed.

China continued to make and deploy strategic submarines to have a submarine fleet of 55, but none of them were able to go to the ocean to carry out vital second strike. Did that make any sense?

If Greenert had not been arrogant, he would have said, “We have never detected any activities of China’s submarines. It seems they have left the entire oceans to us.”

China realized the danger that US ignorance of China’s nuclear second-strike capability may cause the US to attack China with nuclear weapons rashly; therefore, it revealed the existence of its nuclear submarines that the US had been unable to detect through a China-backed Hong Kong magazine The Mirror.

However, arrogant US military regarded Mirror’s report as but boasting. When there was risk of war between China and Japan that might involve the US. For fear of US nuclear retaliation when China had sunk a US submarine (China was confident it was able to do so near its coast), from October 27 to 29, 2013, China’s top official media CCTV displayed in its primetime news footages about China’s strategic submarines.

In February 2014, China showcased its three nuclear submarines at Sanya, Hainan Province.

Reuters report today titled “China submarines outnumber U.S. fleet: U.S. admiral” tells us that US arrogant military has awakened from its arrogant dream. However, compared with what I reveal in my book, US admiral knows less than me about China’s nuclear submarines.

However, it seems to me that US military has not fully awakened.

In a lecture at ifeng TV earlier this month, Chinese Rear Admiral Yang Yi, former director at the Institute for Strategic Studies at China’s National Defense University and currently deputy head of the strategy branch of China’s military society, said he told US officers several times when he met them that the US was wrong in regarding A2/AD (anti-access and area denial) as China’s strategy. It is in fact not China’s strategy. However, US military perhaps just ignored his words and keeps on studying its way to counter what it wrongly regarded as China’s A2/AD strategy.

I point out in my book that China has obtained the capabilities to achieve its strategic goal of wiping out US aircraft carrier battle groups near China’s coast and is developing its integrated space and air capabilities for both attack and defense for its strategic goal of wiping out US navy at high sea in order to defend China’s trade lifelines.

China’s gifted strategist Sun Tze says in his The Art of War, “Know oneself and know one’s enemy, one will never be in peril in war. Know oneself but not one’s enemy, one has a half chance to win and a half chance to lose.” Obviously, the US fails or even refuses to know China.

I doubt whether the US knows itself.

What was US strategic goal in invading Iraq? If its goal was to ensure that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction or to prevent Saddam from supporting Islamic extremists, it should not have overthrown Iraqi Saddam regime since it was found by the invasion that Saddam neither had weapons of mass destruction nor supported Islamic extremists. It had to withdraw its troops after such a goal had been achieved.

If its goal was to bring democracy to Iraq by military invasion, it will lose American people’s support as most of them are peace loving and do not want to change another countries’ political system by US military force. As a result, the US had to withdraw before it was able to set up a stable democracy in Iraq, resulting in helping Islamic extremists grow strong there and arming them with US weapons.

Now, what is US strategic goal in Afghanistan? Can we have any clear idea?

The following is the full text of Reuters report:

China submarines outnumber U.S. fleet: U.S. admiral

China is building some “fairly amazing submarines” and now has more diesel- and nuclear-powered vessels than the United States, a top U.S. Navy admiral told U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, although he said their quality was inferior.

Vice Admiral Joseph Mulloy, deputy chief of naval operations for capabilities and resources, told the House Armed Services Committee’s seapower subcommittee that China was also expanding the geographic areas of operation for its submarines, and their length of deployment.

For instance, China had carried out three deployments in the Indian Ocean, and had kept vessels out at sea for 95 days, Mulloy said.

“We know they are out experimenting and looking at operating and clearly want to be in this world of advanced submarines,” Mulloy told the committee.

U.S. military officials in recent months have grown increasingly vocal about China’s military buildup and launched a major push to ensure that U.S. military technology stays ahead of rapid advances by China and Russia.

Mulloy said the quality of China’s submarines was lower than those built by the United States, but the size of its undersea fleet had now surpassed that of the U.S. fleet. A spokeswoman said the U.S. Navy had 71 commissioned U.S. submarines.

U.S. submarines are built by Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. and General Dynamics Corp.

In its last annual report to Congress about China’s military and security developments, the Pentagon said China had 77 principal surface combatant ships, more than 60 submarines, 55 large and medium amphibious ships, and about 85 missile-equipped small combatants.

Mulloy did not provide details about the number of surface ships now operated by China.

He said the U.S. military did not believe China carried nuclear missiles on its submarines, but that it had been producing missiles and testing them.

Note: This shows the admiral is muddleheaded. How can Chinese strategic nuclear submarines conduct nuclear second strike if they do not carry nuclear missiles?

Source: Chan Kai Yee Space Era Strategy: The Way China Beats The U.S.

Source: Reuters “China submarines outnumber U.S. fleet: U.S. admiral”


China Xi Jinping’s Focus on New Bombers


The H-6M and its weapons displayed at Zhuhai airshow

The H-6M and its weapons displayed at Zhuhai airshow

On the eve of China’s Lunar New Year festival, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited troops in Xian, Shaanxi Province, Northwest China. What drew people’s keen interest was that he personally boarded an H-6 bomber to learn about the functions of its equipment.

H-6 is a quite outdated bomber. Its newest improved version H-6M has only a range of 3,500 km. Though the air-to-ground cruise missiles it carries has a maximum range of 2,500 km to enable it to attack all US military basis in northeastern Asia and the Guam, it is slow with a subsonic speed and is not stealthy; therefore, there is little hope for it to break enemy air defense. Moreover, judging by its engines, its maximum takeoff weight is but 90 tons, too low compared with US and Russian bombers.

Why then was Xi’s high-profile visit of the outdated bomber?

It shows his great interest in the development of Chinese bombers, which is essential for China to achieve integrated space and air capabilities for both attack and defense.

Source: huanqiu.com “Experts: H-6 armed with cruise missiles can cover US military bases in northeastern Asia” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)


China’s First Homegrown C919 Large Airliner to Be Fully Assembled in 2015


China’s ARJ21 78-seat airliner was certified airworthy at the end of 2014 after six years of test.

Research and development of China’s C919 168-seat large airliner are in full swing now. Most of the staff returned to the factory at February 22, three days before the 7-day Lunar New Year holiday and began working hard on Sunday.

Working overtime on holidays has become a routine for the workers for the C919 project. Now, the construction of all the sections of the large airliner has been completed. All the sections have been delivered at the assembly workshop. Assembly of the first C919 prototype will be fully completed within 2015.

Source: xinhuanet.com “All assembly work of China’s first C919 homegrown large airliner will be completed within this year” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)


Can China break the vicious circle of economic slowdown and foreign capital exodus?


Is China’s economic slowdown causing the foreign capital exodus or vice versa? It is like the old question: which came first, the chicken or the egg? Let’s look at both scenarios.

Economic slowdown has caused capital exodus.

Taiwan media Want China Times says in its report “Foreign manufacturer exodus from China”, “With the Chinese economy slowing down and its population dividend diminishing, foreign capital has been exiting the market at an accelerated pace”.

Exodus has been caused by high labor cost instead of slowdown.

In its report “Exodus of Foreign Enterprises Quickens: There Is Fear of Closedown of 100 More Large Factories in Dongguan”, Hong Kong’s Singtao Daily also ascribes the exodus to the lower labor cost in Southeast China.

Japan’s Citizen has closed its production base in Guangzhou while US Microsoft’s Nokia has planned to close its factory in Dongguan this year

According to China’s http://www.ce.cn, Japan’s Panasonic, Sharp, Daikin and TDK have planned to transfer production capacity from China back to Japan while well-known foreign enterprises such as Uniqlo, Nike, Foxconn and Samsung have set up new factories in Southeast Asia and India in preparations for exodus.

Foreign capital exodus has caused closedown of some large Chinese enterprises in Dongguan City that supply parts or processing products for foreign enterprises in China. Singtao says that it is estimated that about 100 more large enterprises will close down due to the exodus resulting in the unemployment of hundreds of thousands workers there.

The serious unemployment due to the exodus reduces demand in Chinese market and thus gives rise to economic slowdown.

Then it’s the exodus that causes the slowdown.

Anyway, no matter which came first slowdown or exodus, slowdown will give rise to exodus while exodus will give rise to slowdown. It is a vicious circle.

The difficult question is: How can China break that vicious circle?

Hu Jintao wanted to replace the development model that relies on export and excessive investment for economic growth by the model that relies on domestic consumption and innovation. He failed to achieve the replacement due to resistance from conservatives and vested interests.

Now, it’s Xi Jinping’s turn. Will he be able to overcome the resistance? Let’s wait and see.

Source: Singtao Daily “Exodus of Foreign Enterprises Quickens: There Is Fear of Closedown of 100 More Large Factories in Dongguan” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)

Source: Want China Times “Foreign manufacturer exodus from China”