Mil.huanqiu.com says in its report “Analysis of PLA volley of many cruise misiles: 7-storey building destroyed in an instant” that on July 23 CCTV published footages of a drill of land-based long-range cruise missiles with shocking view of volley of many missiles hitting accurately at their target.
The report says that a brigade has 100 launching trucks, each carrying 3 missiles. In theory, it can fire a volley of 200 to 300 missiles. The missiles are said to be DF-10A land-based long-range cruise missiles with the best performance. They can be both nuclear and conventional with a range exceeding 1,000 km.
As for whether the target in the drill is a building instead of a cave depot, some people speculate that the drill was directed at Taiwan.
Source: mil.huanqiu.com “Analysis of PLA volley of many cruise misiles: A 7-storey building destroyed in an instant” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)
SCMP says in its report today titled “Get ready for short-term trade pain, US tells American companies in China” that the US has warned American companies in China of pain in the trade war it will soon starts with China.
SCMP says in the report that as the US exports to China are much less than China’s to the US China may retaliate by making things difficult for US companies in China such as delays in Chinese licence approvals, prolonged takeover reviews and exclusion from procurement contracts”.
The US attacked Iraq and Afghanistan for retaliation of 9/11, but those are not wise wars. The US conquered Iraq and brought about regime change, but it failed retaliate against the Islamic extremists. On the contrary, it made them stronger and able to establish their Islamic state. Now the Islamic State has almost been eliminated but that is not the consequence of US invasion of Iraq.
There was no clear strategic goal for the war in Iraq. If it had been for elimination of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, the war must have ended when such weapons had not been found after thorough search.
That was not US current President Trump’s fault. Trump is better. He has two clear strategic goals for his trade war with China: Reduction of US trade deficit and termination of China’s rise with the excuse of putting an end to China’s stealth of US technologies. As a result, China’s strategic goal is also very clear: Making it impossible for the US to achieve its two strategic goals.
The US only knows tariff war and tit-for-tat retaliation so that tit-for-tat retaliation can scare the US and make it think twice. The officials’ warning of pain proves that the threat has played its scaring role. However for China tit-for-tat retaliation is not its strategic goal but its means to attain the goal. Before the war really starts, the threat of retaliation may stop the war by warning the US of the possible undesirable consequence of the war.
As soon as the war has begun, retaliation is irrelevant. China shall do what may enable it to attain its strategic goal.
For US first goal, China shall move its industries that export goods to the US to other countries. That will reduce US trade deficit with China but increase US trade deficit with other countries and thus make the US unable to achieve its strategic goal of reducing trade deficit.
In addition, China shall reduce US exports by developing a large base of agricultural production in Xinjiang through project of diverting the Yarlung Zangbo to its vast desert in Xinjiang.
That may reduce the water in downstream the Ganges in India, but the trade war provides China with justified grounds for the diversion and facilitates talks with India on the project.
The project will enable Xinjiang to provide most agricultural products China has to import from the US and export agricultural products to compete with the US in world market.
China’s Xi has been carrying out further reform to introduce competition between China’s private sector and public sector and industries from abroad to compete with domestic industries. Xi knows that protectionism makes Chinese industries weak and competition may stimulate Chinese industries and make them stronger.
He has not been able to conduct his reform quickly due to resistance from vested interests. Now, the trade war will help him overcome the resistance. SCMP says, “China issued a revised “negative list” for foreign investment on Thursday (June 28) night, cutting the number of business sectors off limits to foreign players from 63 to 48, and expanding foreign commercial activity in finance, transport, professional services, and car and aircraft manufacturing.”
In my opinion, China is narrow-minded to regard enterprises set up by foreign companies in China as alien enterprises. It shall regard them as Chinese enterprises owned partially or wholly by foreigners.
In that perspective, regarding China’s Made in China 2025 plan, if China succeeds in attracting US high-tech companies into China to set up branches to produce high-tech products so that by 2025 the high-tech products will be made by US enterprises in China instead of Chinese enterprises. China will succeed in that plan even without obtaining the high technology from them. “Made in China” means made “in” China instead of made “by” China.
US enterprises in China will produce products to replace China’s imports from the US. Moreover, they may exports goods from China to compete with US products on world market. China’s trade surplus will increase at the expense of the US.
US enterprises in China will thus increase Chinese jobs and tax income and reduce US jobs and tax income. Once in China US enterprises share China’s destiny. They prosper when China prospers and suffer when China suffer. They have thus become Chinese enterprises. It’s stupid to regard them as aliens.
The trade war will inflict pain on US enterprise in China but the pain will be caused by the US. China shall do its best to reduce their pain instead of aggravating their pain.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s report, full text of which can be viewed at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2153171/get-ready-short-term-trade-pain-us-tells-american.
DF-16 is a medium-range ballistic missile with range around 1,200 km between those of DF-15 and DF-21.
It is capable of sustaining changes in environment so that it needs no storage tube costs less and is simpler for mass production.
It is an all-weather mobile missile for accurate attack in whatever weather conditions at vital military targets including aircraft hangars, airfields, military ports, intelligence and command centers, etc.
Source: mil. huanqiu.com “Concentration of large lethal weapons! PLA drill of full-load launches of DF-16 missiles” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)
The nation is focusing its research and development on tech that moves faster than the speed of sound.
By Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer June 26, 2018
As President Trump tries to garner enthusiasm for an undefined U.S. “Space Force”, China has been making steady progress in its own space and military operations, including advances in 3D printing, energy storage, scramjet test platforms, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
TSC Beijing, a Chinese titanium manufacturer, successfully 3D printed a titanium fuselage central box for its high-speed aircraft, which cuts production time from two years down to just six months. TSC used the 3D laser printer TSC-S4510 (one of the world’s largest 3D printers) to print the fuselage, within an error tolerance of less than 0.5mm. The intended aircraft was identified only as a “high-speed” (read: hypersonic) aircraft. Given its narrow wing roots, and 23-foot total length, it is likely a hypersonic UAV.
One likely candidate for the titanium airframe is a single engine, high-supersonic UAV with narrow wings and a needle-like airframe. Possibly designated the WZ-8, it is believed to be an air-launched UAV used to test high-speed propulsion technologies, such as a turbine ramjet combined cycle engine. TSC Beijing’s rapidly printed 3D components have an impact beyond any one system—they could allow China to field more test UAVs soon, speeding up next-generation hypersonic technologies.
The Global Times reported that the Academy of Aerospace Solid Propulsion Technology, part of aerospace giant CASC, has delivered advanced Direct Current (DC) electric motors for use in an ‘electromagnetic weapons system.’ The DC motors are designed to operate in environments with heavy shock and recoil, and intense magnetic fields. This suggests the weapons system is a railgun, which uses electromagnetic force to shoot shells at speeds above Mach 6. Once operational, Chinese railguns could be used for anti-ship, long-range artillery bombardment and air/missile defense missions.
In May, the National Defense University of Technology (NUDT) showed off the Ling Yun, a Mach 6+, two stage scramjet testbed. NUDT hopes that the Ling Yun’s relative simplicity and reliability will make it a mass-produced platform for refining new hypersonic technologies such as thermal resistant components for communications systems, or for collecting atmospheric data in the near space. The Ling Yun’s ease of production could provide the basis for scramjet cruise missiles used to swarm enemy ships and air defenses.
Other possibilities open up if Ling Yun’s scramjet engine can scale down to a 6- to 8-inch diameter. This would open up the potential of hypersonic shells for China’s cannons that could fire hundreds of miles (the U.S. Army is also at work on such a system, targeting completion in 2023). A scramjet cannon would be cheaper and more mobile than a railgun, since it wouldn’t need to lug around massive systems for power generation and storage. Scramjet cannons would be cheaper than ballistic missiles, not to mention being harder to defend against due to smaller sensor profiles and higher rates of fire.
Source: Popular Science “China’s hypersonic military projects include spaceplanes and rail guns”
Note: This is Popular Science’s report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
Se Young Lee, Yawen Chen June 28, 2018
BEIJING (Reuters) – China unveiled on Thursday a long-anticipated easing of foreign investment curbs on sectors including banking, the automotive and heavy industries, and agriculture as Beijing moved to fulfill its promise to open its markets further.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, published on its website a new version of the so-called negative list that sets out industries where foreign investment is limited or prohibited. The new list will take effect on July 28.
The number of items on the negative list was cut to 48 from 63 in the previous version published in June last year.
In addition to confirming already announced pledges to remove ownership limits fully on industries such as insurance and autos within the next three to five years, China will also ease or scrap ownership caps on businesses including ship and aircraft manufacturing, power grids and the breeding of crops, excluding wheat and corn.
The announcement comes amid scrutiny from China’s top trading partner, the United States, and the European Union. They have argued that Chinese firms have been largely allowed to invest freely in their markets while Beijing limits foreign firms’ ability to enter the world’s second-largest economy.
In trade talks between a U.S. delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and senior Chinese officials in early May, the Trump administration officials asked Beijing not to distort trade through investment restrictions, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters at the time.
The U.S. side also asked China to ensure that any investment restrictions or conditions imposed were “narrow and transparent”, according to the sources.
China has repeatedly said it will continue market reforms at its own pace, stressing it will make and implement decisions on opening up markets based on its own needs and not due to external pressure.
Foreign businesses say progress has been slow and promises of wider access have repeated previously announced reforms that are long overdue.
China flagged in April that it would implement a number of the measures by the end of this year.
The changes include a previously announced decision to allow 51 percent foreign ownership of brokerages and life insurers, and to remove that cap entirely by 2021. Current rules limiting a single foreign financial institution’s stake in a Chinese commercial bank to 20 percent will also be abolished on July 28.
The rule that investment by multiple overseas financial institutions in Chinese commercial banks must not exceed 25 percent will also be lifted.
“We expect China to really let some big foreign financial companies to come in to open branches, in areas such as securities, life insurance, funds,” said Xu Weihong, chief economist at AVIC Securities. “China may not let them all in at once, but we expect it to want to showcase a few success examples.”
Foreign ownership limits for passenger car manufacturing will be removed by 2022, as already announced. Restrictions on power grids, passenger railway transport and shipping companies will also be lifted.
“China has made some bold moves to lift investment restrictions in many industries – including many that could be considered strategic such as finance and agriculture,” said Zhengyuan Bo, senior analyst at GRisk, a political risk analytics firm in Shanghai.
“Nonetheless, it’s important for investors to follow the execution of these new rules closely because China may still pose strict capital requirements which may de facto preclude most foreign institutions from entering the Chinese market.”
Reporting by Se Young Lee and Yawen Chen; Additional reporting by Lee Chyen Yee in Singapore, Twinnie Siu in Hong Kong and Beijing and Shanghai newsroom; Additional writing by Ryan Woo; Editing by Toby Chopra, Andrew Heavens and David Stamp
Source: Reuters “China further eases foreign investment curbs”
Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
I said that China should regard US enterprises in China as Chinese enterprises and China’s precious assets and powerful weapons in its trade war with the US.
Reuters’ report yesterday “Ford, Baidu join forces to develop smarter cars in China” precisely proves that.
US enterprises in China want further development. They find that China are now able to develop new technologies at the same level as theirs. Cooperation with Chinese enterprises in research and development will enable both Chinese and US enterprises to grow stronger
CEOs in most US enterprises in China are not narrow-minded as Trump and other US politicians. They do not regard China’s rise as a threat. On the contrary, they regard it as their golden opportunity to develop in China’s growing market.
Chinese leaders and people shall not learn from Americans and become narrow-minded to pursue tit-for-tat retaliation against US enterprises in China. They shall understand that a narrow-minded country has no future as it will have no friend and will not be welcome the world over.
China’s win-win cooperation shall not be restricted to its Belt and Road initiative. It shall conduct win-win cooperation with whoever possible.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, full text of which is reblogged below:
Ford, Baidu join forces to develop smarter cars in China
Reuters Staff June 27, 2018
(Reuters) – Ford Motor Co said on Wednesday it signed a letter of intent with China’s internet search company Baidu Inc to develop artificial intelligence and smart connectivity in cars.
The No.2 U.S. automaker said it would develop new in-vehicle infotainment systems and digital services based on Baidu’s voice-interaction system DuerOS for Ford owners in China.
Financial terms were not disclosed.
“As part of our ‘In China, For China’ strategy, we look forward to working closely to offer smart products and solutions that can make people’s lives easier and more enjoyable,” said Peter Fleet, president of Ford Asia Pacific.
DuerOS will enable car owners to command and communicate with their vehicles using natural language and allow people to easily access information and services that they need in daily life, Ford said. (ford.to/2KmbYDt)
The companies would also seek to set up a joint connectivity lab to investigate innovation opportunities across their automotive and mobility businesses in China and explore cloud computing, Ford said.
The two companies would also evaluate technologies and big data to explore opportunities related to targeted digital marketing, the U.S. automaker said.
“Together…we will transform the mobility ecosystem and create the next-generation in-vehicle experience for consumers,” said Ya-Qin Zhang, president of Baidu.
Ford and Baidu had collaborated here previously in 2016 to jointly invest $150 million in Velodyne, which makes a key component in self-driving cars.
Reporting by Ankit Ajmera in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernard Orr
That is Reuters’ description in its report “In Europe’s east, a border town strains under China’s Silk Road train boom”. According to the report the number of locomotives from China to Europe through Russia and Central Asia has increased from one a year in 2011 to 200 a month in 2017.
According to Reuters, that has given rise to strains in Malaszewicze, the land port in Polish border due to inadequate infrastructure. In late 2017, there were queues as long as 100 trains in there as 90% of Chinese goods shipped by railway go through it. However, the situation has been improved so that there were currently no queues there.
It takes time for politicians to see the opportunity the rail links provide their country but further growth of the transport will make them realize the necessity to develop infrastructure to meet the demand.
The rail operations suffer losses now if they are not subsidized by Chinese government. As the shipping volume grows the losses will be reduced but cannot be free from government subsidies. However, for national security Chinese government is willing to provide the subsidies.
The United States is now launching a trade war with China due to Thucydides Trap. Who can guarantee such trade war may not be turned into a real war, in which US Navy may cut China’s trade lifelines to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Better be prepared.
The situation will be greatly improved when pipelines and rail and road connections have been built through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port. From the port Chinese goods may be shipped through sea routes to East Asia, Europe and Africa. However, the rail connections remain strategically important for China.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-europe-silkroad-insight/in-europes-east-a-border-town-strains-under-chinas-silk-road-train-boom-idUSKBN1JM34M.
Reuters reports China’s independent development of fracking technology to exploit shale gas in its report “Breakingviews – China’s homegrown shale is worth the bother” on June 27, which is reblogged below:
Breakingviews – China’s homegrown shale is worth the bother
Clara Ferreira-Marques June 27, 2018
SINGAPORE (Reuters Breakingviews) – China’s shale gas push is a fully justified insurance policy. The People’s Republic produces a fraction of U.S. output: its fracking spurt started later, terrain is rough and wells deep. Yet fast-improving domestic technology and state support are helping push output up and costs down. With trade tensions rising, Beijing’s hedge is worth the effort.
China has one of the world’s largest shale gas resources, and is one of very few countries producing it commercially outside North America. Yet output was just 9 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 318 billion cubic feet, last year – largely from Sinopec’s Fuling field in Sichuan – amounting to less than 4 percent of rapidly rising annual demand. That’s meagre even if output nearly doubles, as forecast by Wood Mackenzie analysts, to 17 bcm by 2020. Such a level would only put it at roughly where the United States was in 2005, when shale took off.
In almost everything, though, the two experiences differ. Chinese wells are in mountainous, arid and often populous areas – a problem, given water is required for hydraulic fracking, and more is needed for deep formations. Deposits are structurally more complex. State players, and not innovative ‘wildcat’ operators, lead the way; Western majors are virtually absent and pipeline infrastructure is poor.
Strategic considerations nevertheless make the effort worthwhile, even just to offset rising overseas purchases. China currently imports roughly 40 percent of its gas needs, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from central Asia. While the United States is not a key supplier, heightened trade tensions will underline the need to diversify.
In any case, Chinese shale costs should fall. Technology has transformed shale before, and homegrown innovation, combined with a local supplier base, is already helping here. The cost of building a well has nearly halved over the past 8 years. Firms are also catching up with techniques to boost efficiency, like drilling multiple wells at a single pad.
There is also ample state support in the form of generous subsidies and tax cuts. That’s a powerful driver, at least while Beijing supports gas over, say, renewables. It may not be a Permian boom with Chinese characteristics yet, but options are valuable too.
Source: Reuters “Breakingviews – China’s homegrown shale is worth the bother”
Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
Mil.huanqiu.com says in its report “Move nuclear reactor onto a ship! Unveil our country’s first nuclear powered icebreaker” on June 27 that entrusted by China Marine Nuclear Power Development Co., Ltd., China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has recently published news that it is inviting public tender for the construction of China’s first nuclear icebreaking and integrated safeguard ship.
The report says that CNNC has a series of small reactor technologies for reactors of various types on floating nuclear power stations including ACP10S, ACP25S and ACP100S, but floating nuclear power stations are not equipped with propelling systems that require reliable and stable power supply.
However, CNNC’s small reactors have the advantages of zero pollution, zero discharge and easy discommission. They are especially suitable for use on a ship as they can be installed below water level for better cooling of their nuclear cores.
In addition, the ship needs great additional power to break ice. That may be some challenge for CNNC in providing the reactor(s) for the ship.
Moreover, the ship is concurrently an integrated safeguard ship to provide electricity and marine replenishment, rescue and other services. That is why CNNC has to invite public tender for domestic enterprises to offer their technology and other resources.
However, the above does not make the news sensational. What makes it sensational is that military experts believe that the nuclear power systems on the ship can be satisfactorily used on a nuclear aircraft carrier. The successful construction of such an icebreaker heralds the construction of China’s first nuclear aircraft carrier.
That is why the tender has attracted keen interest and there is news from other sources that so far five Chinese companies have offered funds totaling one bullion yuan for the ship.
Source: mil.huanqiu.com “Move nuclear reactor onto a ship! Unveil our country’s first nuclear powered icebreaker” (summary by Chan Kai Yee base on the report in Chinese), full text of which in Chinese can be viewed at http://mil.huanqiu.com/world/2018-06/12358983.html.
In China’s wars, China usually hurts the enemy while benefiting itself.
For example, when it annihilate an enemy division, it hurts the enemy severely while benefits itself by taking the division’s weapons and supplies.
That is the right way to fight a war.
Now, SCMP’s article “China and Trump’s tariffs: stop, or I’ll shoot myself too” on June 25 regards devalue of Chinese currency, dump Treasury debt, boycott US companies as China’s weapons to strike back in its trade war with the US as tariff increase cannot cause as much damages to the US because US exports to China are much smaller than China’s exports to the US.
The article is right in its view that such three moves will hurt China while hurting the US, but it is wrong to believe that China has no options to strike back.
The article was written on June 25 after Chinese President Xi Jinping met Western business leaders on June 21 to promise them that China will widen opening to the outside world.
According to SCMP’s report “Which American CEOs did Xi Jinping meet in Beijing? UPS, Pfizer, Goldman all on the list” on June 22, CEOs of major American companies were among the major Western businessmen Xi met. SCMP says those were US business delegates at the Global CEO Council round-table summit on June 21.
SCMP says in its report, “The CEO council was set up in 2013 by the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, one of Beijing’s diplomatic arms, to improve the government’s ties with multinationals.”
Premier Li Keqiang instead of Xi attended the four previous summits, but it was Xi who attended the summit this year. Why?
Chinese media reports on the summit do not reveal the contents of the summit but SCMP believes “It apparently was an effort to lobby foreign businesses to help ease trade tensions before July 6”.
However, it is unlikely that those CEOs may really affect Trump’s decision since US businessmen including the said American CEOs have lobbied hard in vain quite extensively for a long time.
What then has Xi told US CEOs in the summit since it is useless for the CEOs to make Trump change his mind at the last minute?
Tell them China will drive them home or make things hard for their enterprises in China?
Soldiers can fight with emotion in war but commanders must fight with wisdom instead of emotion.
I do not know what Xi said to them. What I know is that Xi is stupid if he boycotts or makes things difficult for the CEO’s US enterprises in China.
Trump is enacting a law to make it impossible for Chinese to take significant shares in US enterprises in order to prevent China from getting US technology. Now, those companies with US technology have already been in China so that China need not pay a penny to take shares in them. As far as I know most American enterprises in China are joint ventures in which China has substantial shares. Therefore, according to Chinese official media, Xi, instead, tell US CEOs China will open wider to them to encourage their investment in China.
That will be the wise way to fight trade war.
Trump has reduced tax to encourage US entrepreneurs to withdraw their investment from China and invest instead in the US to enjoy the tax reduction. Some big American companies do have plans to set up new plants in the US to provide jobs for American people.
That is the aim of the tax reduction. Is China wise in driving US investment back to the US so as to increase jobs in the US and reduce jobs in China?
China shall impose high tariffs on the goods that those CEO’s enterprises produce in the US. That will make their export to China unprofitable so that they will not be able to enjoy income tax reduction
China shall say sorry to them that the high tariffs though make them suffer are not directed at them. China is forced to increase tariffs as retaliation. Otherwise China will be humiliated.
That will be the frontal engagement in the trade war.
The ingenious surprise move is that China shall tell them to move to China their production for export to China. That will reduce US jobs and tax income while increasing Chinese jobs and tax income. It will hurt the US and benefit China.
China shall regard US enterprises in China as Chinese ones and China’s precious assets and powerful weapons in fighting the trade war with the US. Therefore, China shall provide preferential treatment for them to transfer their production to China.
There is another way to benefit US enterprises in China, which will benefit China as they are Chinese enterprises and hurt the US more severely. My wise readers can guess that from the above-mentioned ingenious surprise move so that I will not elaborate.
I am afraid that revelation of China’s ingenious moves may make such moves lose surprise but it may perhaps stop the trade war when US decision makers have learned from the description of the moves that there is no hope for them to win the trade war. However, I doubt US officials may read my posts and make decisions on the basis of my posts as my posts are not widely read.
Article by Chan Kai Yee