An Unpredictable Leader
A great leader must be unpredictable in dealing with tricky issues in order to have surprise when he attacks his targets. As a result, the targets are not prepared when he attacks. If they know what his next step will be, they will be well prepared to resist the attack.
Xi’s First Surprise: Blitzkrieg in Shutting Black Jails and Freeing Illegally Detained Petitioners
Xi Jinping does not look shrewd or fearful. In the five years when he was a Politburo Standing Committee member and Vice President, he only did what he was told to do without any exceptional performance. He had thus given the impression that he was but a good boy that will faithfully follow his predecessors’ steps without any creation or innovation.
True, Xi talked about his priority to deal with corruption as soon as he was elected, but his predecessor Hu Jintao has talked much and sent inspection teams to various provinces and organizations to fight corruption with little achievement. Xi’s words were but CCP jargon to please the people. The vast number of corrupt officials simply disregarded Xi’s talks.
However, on December 4, 2012, less than three weeks after he was elected, Xi Jinping took lightening actions to close the “black jails” set up by local governments in Beijing to imprison petitioners who came to Beijing to seek remedy for local injustices. Xi freed all the prisoners of the black jails.
That shocked powerful local officials as six months before Xi’s surprise actions Hu Jintao, the ten top leader, held a national conference on dealing with petitioning attended by high officials including some Politburo Standing Committee members and gave the instruction that local governments should shut their representative offices in Beijing as Hu was clearly aware of local officials’ malpractices in rounding up and persecuting petitioners. However, local officials simply ignored Hu’s instruction and maintained their offices and black jails till Xi suddenly closed them six months later.
CCP has a system to accept people’s letters of complaints and petitions at State Bureau for Letters and Calls in order to remedy local injustices. To prevent local malpractices especially corruption from being known by central authority, local governments have set up their representative offices in Beijing to intercept the petitioners. The petitioners rounded up by local governments were locked in illegal detention centers referred to as “black Jails” by media and web users.
The thugs employed by local governments used threat and violence to make petitioners promise that they would stop petitioning and then sent them back home. Petitioners were often tortured if they were disobedient. If they persisted in petitioning, they would be sent to local labor camps to receive reeducation through labor for one to four years. According to the reeducation through labor system at that time, police had the power to imprison people in reeducation camps for as long as four years without undergoing any legal procedures. Xi abolished the system later.
Xi’s action opened the channels previously blocked by local officials for informing against local corruption through China’s petition system.
Previously people did not dare to expose officials’ crimes of corruption as when someone informed about a corrupt official, in order to shield the official, the authority first examines the background of the informer instead of the official exposed. The informer would be punished if anything irregular had been found in the investigation. Even if nothing irregular had been found in the thorough investigation, the informer would have gone through lots of trouble during the investigation. If the official exposed was powerful, he might order his subordinates to frame up the informer and persecute him.
However, Xi’s abrupt move made people believe that Xi really wanted to fight corruption. As a result, people began to report officials’ crimes of corruption on the Internet and media. Under Xi’s rule, the exposed official was immediately investigated. If the official was found guilty, he would be punished severely while there was no investigation of the informer at all.
Xi’s severe punishment of the corrupt officials exposed by informers greatly encouraged people and scared corrupt officials. There was expectation that Xi would soon begin a nationwide anti-corruption campaign, but for months Xi remained inactive till people almost lost confidence and officials were no longer scared. Then he gave people a huge surprise.
Xi Jinping’s Mass Line Campaign, the “Purgatory” for Officials
Instead of the much expected anti-corruption campaign, in July 2013, Xi Jinping launched a nationwide seemingly Maoist campaign, the year-long national mass line campaign. He used Mao’s wording on mass line but his mass line is in fact entirely different from Mao’s. It precisely proves how clever he is in manipulating the application of Mao Zedong Thought.
In fact, there are three different mass lines: CCP’s traditional, Mao’s and Xi Jinping’s mass lines, the purgatory for officials.
CCP’s Traditional Mass Line
CCP’s mass line jargon is “working entirely for and relying entirely on the masses of people; from the masses and to the masses”. It means that CCP works entirely for the masses of people; therefore, it shall learn and understand the opinions and aspirations of the masses of people so as to formulate popular policies. CCP relies entirely on the masses of people; therefore, it shall make the masses of people understand its policies and mobilize them to carry out the policies. There is democratic ingredient in this mass line.
This was the mass line implemented by CCP, with which CCP was able to mobilize the masses of people to help it win the Civil and Korean Wars with an army much inferior to its enemies in funding and equipment.
Mao Zedong’s Mass Campaign Complex
The victories of the two wars caused Mao to have an inflated ego. He believed that he was always correct and did not need to know or understand the opinions and aspirations of the masses of people. On the contrary, it was the masses of people who had to study and obey his instructions and do whatever he told them to do because he was always correct.
The victories caused Mao to believe that he could succeed in anything as long as he had mobilized the masses of people. As a result, Mao’s mass line was no longer the CCP’s mass line of “from the masses of people and to the masses of people” but a mass line of mass campaigns, i.e. the full mobilization of the masses of people to act 100% in accordance with Mao’s instructions.
Mao’s mass campaign for fast economic growth – the Great Leap Forward ended up in his disastrous grand famine. It was followed by his great mass political campaign the Cultural Revolution that put the Chinese nation in chaos.
Contents of Xi Jinping’s Mass Line Campaign
Xi Jinping calls his campaign mass line education practice activities. It differs from both CCP’s and Mao’s mass lines in its goal to make people rectify officials’ work style and impose strict discipline on them through the mass-line purgatory. His mass-line supervision of officials aims not only at overcoming for the time being corruption, being divorced from the masses of people and the four malpractices of formalism, bureaucratism, hedonism and extravagance but also ensuring that officials really become public servants and work for people’s welfare.
For officials, the campaign was in fact a typhoon of purgatory. Xi conducted his nationwide mass line education practice campaign for one year to overcome the malpractices of being divorced from the masses of people, formalism, bureaucratism, hedonism and extravagance.
Those were the mistakes that almost official from top to bottom had to a certain extent committed; therefore, Xi Jinping calls his campaign an education campaign, i.e. a campaign to educate the officials in order to overcome those mistakes and implement his mass line. In that campaign, all officials had to examine themselves before the masses of people. As they had acted as lords and masters for a long time, they found it very hard to conduct self-examination and self-criticism before humble mass of people, lose dignity and face and promise that they would reform and become the mass of people’s servants.
Did that work? Could officials really be made to examine and criticize themselves? Would the masses of people come out to expose officials’ mistakes openly in spite of being used to be scared by officials? The higher officials’ ranks, the more serious their mistakes. Who dare to expose high officials’ mistakes? Take care that there may be retaliation!
I will elaborate in my next article Xi’s way to make officials go through the purgatory he set for them.
Article by Chan Kai Yee
Andrew Tate, London and Sean O’Connor, Indianapolis – IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly
26 April 2017
Commercial satellite imagery taken on 11 April shows that significant progress has been made in the construction of the first four Type 055 destroyers for China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
At the Jiangnan Changxingdao shipyard near Shanghai, where construction of the lead ship of the class commenced in late 2014, Hull 1 appears to have all the modules in place and most of the modules for Hull 2 are in position.
In late 2016, hull modules appeared on the side of a graving dock at the Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Company (DSIC) yard and by 7 March keel blocks were being positioned in the dock to support the construction of two hulls side by side. By 11 April, modules for two Type 055 hulls had been lifted from the dockside onto the keel blocks and assembly was clearly underway.
Measurements from the images indicate that the Type 055 will be about 180 m long and 19 m wide, meaning that it will be significantly larger than the 7,500-tonne Luyang III-class (Type 052D) destroyers (157 m long and 17 m wide). This places the size of the Type 055 between the Republic of Korea Navy’s Sejong Daewang (KDX-3) class (166 m/10,500 tonnes) and the Russian Federation Navy’s Slava class (186 m/11,700 tonnes).
The images from Changxingdao show the module that will contain the forward vertical launch system (VLS) cells, with a second grid of cells set to be positioned forward of the hangar.
The forward grid appears to be divided into 16 sections, four across and four deep, with overall dimensions of 13 m in length and 10.5 m in width.
Comparison with the dimensions of the two 32-cell VLS grids fitted to the Type 052D suggests that the VLS in the Type 055 will have 64 cells in the forward grid.
Source: IHS Jane’s 360 “Construction of China’s Type 055 destroyers forges ahead”
Note: This is IHS Jane’s 360’s report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
China’s top anti-graft watchdog on Thursday released new information on 22 fugitives who are hiding out abroad down to the street names where they may live, as China ramps up pressure on corruption suspects who have fled overseas.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has overseen a multi-year war on graft, promising to quash deep-seated corruption at all levels of the party until officials cannot, dare not and don’t want to be corrupt.
The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) took the fight overseas in 2015 by releasing a list of 100 most wanted fugitives which the organization has since sought to return through operations called “fox hunt” and “sky net”.
Beijing has struggled to enlist Western countries in its efforts to return corruption suspects, with many proving reluctant to sign an extradition treaty with China, pointing to its poor rights record and opaque criminal prosecution process.
CCDI released on its website further images, suspected crimes, addresses and locations for 22 fugitives in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
The information marks the most detailed personal data released on overseas suspects to date, CCDI official Gao Bo said, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
A statement by the CCDI also released on its website said that the current information came from tip-offs from members of the public and encouraged Chinese abroad and foreigners to inform on the fugitives through an online platform so that they had “no place to hide”.
“We urge specific countries not to pursue their own economic interests by issuing passports and visas through investment immigration schemes when applicants are suspected of corruption,” the statement said.
“Passports and visas that have already been issued should be revoked as soon as possible.”
(Reporting by Christian Shepherd)
Source: Reuters “No hiding place: China releases street names of fugitives holed up abroad”
Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
By Manolo Serapio Jr and Martin Petty | MANILA Thu Apr 27, 2017 | 7:18am EDT
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said on Thursday it was pointless discussing Beijing’s contentious activities in the South China Sea at this week’s Southeast Asian summit, and no one dared to pressure China anyway.
The no-nonsense former mayor scoffed at questions from reporters about whether China’s rapid reclamation of uninhabited reefs or enforcement of an international arbitration ruling last year would be brought up with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Saturday.
“Who will dare pressure?” he said. “Who can pressure China? Us?”
Asked how ASEAN should deal with China, Duterte said dialogue was the only option.
“The way we’re doing, talking – that’s the only luxury we have,” he said.
“Action? Tell us how. Tell me. Educate me how.”
The Philippines is hosting meetings of ASEAN this year. The bloc will adopt a softer than usual tone about South China Sea disputes and exclude references to militarization or island-building, according to a draft of the chairman’s statement.
China claims most of the energy-rich South China Sea through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Neighbours Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.
The Philippines’ chairing of ASEAN comes amid a charm offensive by Duterte, who has opted to court China for its business and investment and avoid rows over sovereignty that dogged his predecessors.
Duterte has been accused by critics of taking a defeatist position on China and on defending Philippine sovereignty. He considers his approach is pragmatic and says challenging China risks triggering a war.
The previous government in 2013 filed a case with the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague to set the record straight on maritime boundaries. The tribunal did that last year, and invalidated China’s claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea.
Duterte, who has put the ruling on the back burner and said he will revisit it later in his term, said it was a waste of time for ASEAN to discuss that award now, and it was not relevant.
LOOKING FOR TROUBLE
“Arbitral is simply entitlement. It’s not even a territorial thing. The only question at arbitral was entitlement, not jurisdiction, not even territory,” he said.
“How will you raise the issue? …. We cannot on our own enforce the arbitral judgment.”
He added: “Before, China said we will not honour (it), so why will you force (them) to honour? You’re just looking for trouble. Can we go to war?”
The Philippines is determined to agree a framework for a China-ASEAN code of conduct on the South China Sea during its chairmanship, though there is some scepticism about why it has China’s support now, 15 years after the idea of drafting a code was agreed.
Critics and some diplomats see China’s compliance as a stalling tactic to show it was engaging in diplomacy, while buying time to expand and fortify its presence in the Spratly archipelago.
Asked about China’s sincerity towards completing the code, Duterte said tensions at sea were the fault of the United States.
“Here’s how it is. They (China) really claim it as their own, even a long time ago,” he said. “The issue hasn’t really exploded until the Americans made it to be.”
The mercurial leader said the issue of piracy would be raised during the summit, but his position was clear.
“If any ship of any country of the ASEAN or any ship of that matter, in dealing with piracy, my order is just to blow them up,” he said. “Why should I arrest them?”
He was also asked his view on the rising tensions over North Korea’s nuclear programme, an issue likely to be discussed by ASEAN.
“My reaction is kindly, kindly use your patience,” he said. “It would be as good as any other time to advise now, people, just go easy.”
(Editing by Nick Macfie)
Source: Reuters “Philippines’ Duterte says pointless discussing South China Sea woes at summit”
Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
Elimination of widespread rampant corruption needs an exceptionally wise, brave and powerful leader. The leader shall be very clearly aware of the great danger in the job. Officials exploit their power to commit corruption so that the greater the power, the more serious the corruption. Therefore, the “tigers” Xi has to catch in his fight against corruption are real tigers with sharp teeth. They are able to assassinate high officials in charge of the fight or even the leader. They may even launch a coup d’état.
However, they know the risk of the assassination and coup especially when the leader controls China’s secret police; therefore, the best way for them is to spread the rumor that the real purpose of the fight against corruption is to remove or weaken the factions not controlled by the leader so as to establish the leader’s absolute power.
It is common that there are various factions in a communist party, but especially in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after Mao’s Cultural Revolution because those who were in a faction with substantial strength suffered less persecution and regained their positions sooner during and after the Cultural Revolution.
Usually, a high-ranking official appoints and promotes quite some officials. Those officials together with the officials they appointed and promoted form a faction due to comradeship, friendship and common interests and aspiration. When the high-ranking official has retired, he still controls the faction formed due to his influence and will interfere for the interests of his faction whenever possible if necessary.
When it comes to the decisions at a Party Congress on candidates for members of Central Committee, Politburo and its Standing Committee, Central Military Commissions and Party Secretariat and other senior posts, all the retired elders who have been dormant, will come out to take part in the bargaining behind the scene because it affects the balance of strength among various factions and concerns the interest of not only themselves but also the large number of their faction members.
The removal of a high official in a faction due to corruption may greatly weaken the faction; therefore, it will certainly vigorously resist and demand a lenient punishment or even immunity. Other factions will mostly side with the guilty official’s faction for fear that it was the leader or the anti-corruption official’s power struggle trick to weaken the factions they do not control one by one. The resistance of the alliance of those factions may become quite strong especially when it is joined by the quite strong conservative faction built up by Bo Xilai through his anti-organized crime and sing-red campaigns. That was also the cause for the difficulties in making the decision to punish Bo Xilai harshly. The decision had not been made until Jiang Zemin came to Beijing to preside over an expanded Politburo meeting on September 27, 2012.
Power struggle is corrupt officials’ best excuse in opposing Xi’s fight against corruption!
In order to succeed in his fight against corruption and for further reform, Xi visited all the powerful elders who were heads of various factions and convinced them that what he did was to save CCP instead of enabling his own faction to have dominant power over all other factions. He even showed them that he had no faction of his own and told them he would have an official with little factional background to be in charge of the fight against corruption.
His choice of Wang Qishan convinced them. Wang’s father-in-law Yao Yilin was for a time a Politburo Standing Committee member, but Yao was in charge of economy. Wang himself, though promoted by Zhu Rongji of Jiang Zemin’s Shanghai faction, was employed as high economic officials. Economic officials usually have little political power in CCP.
Wang seems powerful in having investigated and punished powerful officials including a retired Politburo Standing Committee member and two retired top generals, but his power comes from Xi Jinping and CCP organization. He has no troops or police under his personal control to achieve his personal goal.
Some people may wonder: How can a leader rule a party full of factions without forming his own powerful faction?
In Chinese history, forming his own faction and making it the only powerful faction was a common trap for a sovereign. It may easily cause the sovereign to be surrounded by a faction of treacherous fawning protégés who, like Heshen, corrupted Emperor Qianlong’s entire official system and blocked the channels for informers to expose their evils.
A wise sovereign shall have charisma to attract all talents around him no matter what factions they belong to. He is even able to win over talents from his enemy and make them his faithful followers. A great leader’s greatness lies first of all in his ability to discover and properly employ and delegate power to talented followers. Xi has proved his wisdom in dealing with domestic and external issues, but we still have to wait and see whether he is able to fill his Politburo Standing Committee with talents and find a competent successor.
Whether with the excuse of opposing power struggle or not, the large number of corrupt official may refuse to function like the officials did under Emperor Jiaqing’s reign or even begin national protests like Hong Kong police did against Governor MacLehose’ anti-corruption campaign.
What shall Xi Jinping do?
He gave people a huge surprise, which is a long story to be elaborated in my next article.
Article by Chan Kai Yee
By Manuel Mogato | MANILA Wed Apr 26, 2017 | 12:54am EDT
Southeast Asian nations would adopt a softer than usual tone about South China Sea disputes at a leaders’ summit on Saturday in Manila, and exclude references to militarization or island-building, according to a draft of the chairman’s statement.
Although some Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders will express “serious concern” over the “escalation of activities” in the disputed sea, ASEAN will drop references, or even allusions, to China’s construction of artificial islands and the military hardware it has placed on them, according excerpts of the draft seen by Reuters.
The statement would be a watered-down version of that issued last year and comes amid a charm offensive by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who takes the rotating ASEAN chair this year, to court China for its business and avoid rows over sovereignty in the South China Sea.
However, a diplomat from the ASEAN secretariat told Reuters, that officials were still working on the draft of the statement and “it may still change” before it is issued at the end of the summit on Saturday.
China claims almost entire South China Sea where about $5 trillion worth of sea-borne goods pass every year. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have conflicting claims on the strategic waterway.
ASEAN references to the South China Sea issue typically do not name China, which has been expanding its seven manmade islands in the Spratlys, including with hangers, runways, radars and surface-to-air missiles.
Last year’s ASEAN statement in Laos emphasized the importance of “non-militarisation and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities, including land reclamation”.
According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, China will soon be capable of deploying fighter jets on three of its reefs. China insists its activities are for defense purposes and are taking place in what it considers its sovereign waters.
The Philippines irked China two months ago when its then foreign minister, Perfecto Yasay, said he and ASEAN counterparts had noticed “very unsettlingly” that weapons systems had been installed, and considered that “a militarization of the region”.
The foreign minister of the former administration, Alberto del Rosario, on Tuesday said the Philippines’ hosting of ASEAN summit was an opportunity for Duterte to raise China’s militarization.
Also In South China Sea
China launches first home-built aircraft carrier amid South China Sea tension
In shadow of China’s reef city, Philippines seeks upgrade for its island patriots
“We should utilize our leadership to be able to uphold the rule of law,” he said. “The leadership of the Philippines will lose a lot of influence if we pass up that opportunity.”
A former government official involved in foreign policy likened the Philippines to Cambodia, which has been accused of taking China’s side and serving as a de facto veto against consensus ASEAN decisions that would otherwise be unfavorable to Beijing.
“Everyone is now watching the Philippines, we expect China to send its message to Southeast Asian countries through Duterte,” the official said, requesting anonymity.
“We are now acting like China’s lackey.”
(Editing by Martin Petty and Michael Perry)
Source: Reuters “ASEAN statement to go easy on Beijing over South China Sea dispute”
Note: This is Reuters’ report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
By Michael Martina | BEIJING Wed Apr 26, 2017 | 7:30am EDT
China launched its first domestically built aircraft carrier on Wednesday amid rising tension over North Korea and worries about Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
State media has quoted military experts as saying the carrier, China’s second and built in the northeastern port of Dalian, is not expected to enter service until 2020, once it has been kitted out and armed.
Foreign military analysts and Chinese media have for months published satellite images, photographs and news stories about the second carrier’s development. China confirmed its existence in late 2015.
The launch “shows our country’s indigenous aircraft carrier design and construction has achieved major step-by-step results”, Xinhua news agency said.
State television showed the carrier, its deck lined in red flags, being pushed by tug boats into its berth.
Fan Changlong, a vice chairman of China’s powerful Central Military Commission, presided over the ceremony, Xinhua said, during which a bottle of champagne was broken on the bow.
The launch follows China’s celebration on Sunday of the 68th birthday of the founding of the Chinese navy, and comes amid renewed tensions between North Korea and the United States over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs.
Little is known about China’s aircraft carrier program, which is a state secret.
But the government has said the new carrier’s design draws on experiences from the country’s first carrier, the Liaoning, bought second-hand from Ukraine in 1998 and refitted in China.
The new conventionally powered carrier will be able to operate China’s Shenyang J-15 fighter jets.
Unlike the U.S. navy’s longer-range nuclear carriers, both of China’s feature Soviet-design ski-jump bows, intended to give fighter jets enough lift to take off from their shorter decks. But they lack the powerful catapult technology for launching aircraft of their U.S. counterparts.
“NO NEED” TO MATCH THE UNITED STATES
China’s navy has been taking an increasingly prominent role in recent months, with a rising star admiral taking command, its first aircraft carrier sailing around self-ruled Taiwan and new Chinese warships popping up in far-flung places.
The Liaoning has taken part in military exercises, including in the South China Sea, but is expected to serve more as a training vessel. State media has said the new carrier will be more dedicated to military and humanitarian operations.
China claims almost all the South China Sea, believed to have huge deposits of oil and gas, through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year, and has been building up military facilities like runways on the islands it controls.
Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.
Taiwan, claimed by Beijing as its own, has said China is actually building two new aircraft carriers, but China has not officially confirmed the existence of another carrier.
Chinese state media has quoted experts as saying that the country needs at least six carriers. The United States operates 10 and plans to build two more.
Major General Chen Zhou, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science, told reporters in March that China would not exceed the United States in carrier groups. “China has no need for this,” he said.
Sam Roggeveen, a senior fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, said that by the time China had half that number, it could go toe-to-toe with the U.S. navy in the Asia-Pacific.
“Given that the Americans have global obligations and responsibilities but China doesn’t, then effectively by that point they would be evenly matched,” Roggeveen said.
Most experts agree that developing such a force will be a decades-long endeavor but the launch of the second carrier holds a certain prestige value for Beijing, seen by many analysts as keen to eventually erode U.S. military prominence in the region.
“With two aircraft carriers you could say without much fear of contradiction that China, other than the United States, is the most powerful maritime force in the Asia-Pacific,” Roggeveen said.
(Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Michael Perry and Nick Macfie)
Source: Reuters “China launches first home-built aircraft carrier amid South China Sea tension”