Dire US Ignorance of China’s Advanced Strategic Nuclear Submarines

One of the six 096 strategic nuclear submarine China has deployed

Wall Street Journal’s report on China’s strategic nuclear marines shows widespread ignorance of China’s military capabilities, especially China’s nuclear submarines

It says, “The Pentagon has said it expects the Chinese navy to use the Jin-class to begin China’s first sea patrols with fully armed nuclear weapons at some point this year.”

My new book Space Era Strategy: The Way China Beats The U.S. points out that Jin-class, i.e. Type 094 is China’s second-generation strategic submarine while its third-generation Type 096 has long been in service. China has been testing its four-generation super quiet and quick strategic nuclear submarine.

There are quite detailed descriptions of China’s submarines in the book. Here, I will only give a few excerpts:

U.S. Failed to Detect China’s Strategic Nuclear Submarines

Strategic submarines are a country’s top secret; therefore, though China has been developing its strategic nuclear submarine since 1966, there had never been direct official news about it. In May 2013, U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert told Congress that despite deploying a current force of 55 submarines, both diesel and nuclear powered, Chinese navy “is not there yet.” “we own the undersea domain,” he said.

…

Source Close to China Began to Correct U.S. Underestimate

Two month later, the underestimate remained uncorrected. On July 23, 2013, Washington Times carried the report by Bill Gertz on The Washington Free Beacon titled “Red tide: China deploys new class of strategic missile submarines next year”, stating that Type 094, China’s second-generation strategic submarine, would not be deployed until 2014 and that it would “be the first time China conducts submarine operations involving nuclear-tipped missiles far from Chinese shores despite having a small missile submarine force since the late 1980s.”

To correct the underestimate, the next day, Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing The Mirror monthly revealed to Taiwan’s Central News Agency in haste an article it was going to publish in its next issue, giving some shocking information about China’s strategic nuclear submarines.

The Mirror’s report by Liang Tianren reveals that the Jin-class (i.e. Type 094) submarine is China’s second-generation strategic nuclear submarine. Along with it, there is China’s second-generation Shang-class attack nuclear submarine.

After China’s success in producing two Type 094 Jin-class and two Type 093 Shang-class submarines, according to the report, “China began development of its third-generation nuclear submarines, i.e. Type 095 Sui-class attack nuclear submarines and Type 096 Zhou-class strategic nuclear submarines and began producing them in 2007. The existence of the third-generation submarines is an undeniable fact.

…

Then China began development of its fourth-generation nuclear submarines in accordance with its policy of ‘completing the earlier generation, building the present generation and researching in advance into the next generation’

According to informed source, the fourth-generation nuclear submarines are revolutionary submarines with unprecedented propulsion by magnetic liquid. It, therefore, has no screw propeller or tail or horizontal rudders and may possibly be free of a sail hull. As a result, it generates no mechanical or cruise noise at all and will be a real black hole in ocean.

In theory a fourth-generation submarines under development will have a speed of 100 knots, quicker than all high-speed torpedoes let alone being hit by them.

U.S. Failed to Find Information about China’s Strategic Submarine in China’s Public Media

Since Obama regards his pivot to Asia as a wonderful invention to contain China, the U.S. certainly has to monitor major Chinese media to know China’s real strength as its support for Japan may well lead to a war with China.

If the U.S. had monitored China’s Oriental Outlook Weekly, a major journal under Chinese government’s Xinhua News Agency and made some analysis, it would not have been so ignorant of China’s true strategic submarine capabilities

Crew of New-type Nuclear Submarine Awarded by Xi Jinping

Oriental Outlook reporter Shan Xue said in early September 2013 that he had looked into files and found that Sub-unit 90 of Unit 92730 rewarded a first class merit by Xi Jinping in late August, 2013 is the crew of China’s new type of submarine in South Sea Fleet.

Chinese military website posted a set of photos in 2010 on the return of Unit 92730 of the South Sea Fleet after satisfactory fulfillment of a major task. (This blogger’s note: activities of the submarine were not detected by the U.S.)

Digging deeper, he found a report in PLA Daily in September 2008 on the said Sub-unit 90 of Unit 92730 being denominated a model unit for other units to learn from.

Hu Zhongming, commander of the sub-unit ranked the first among the models to be learnt from in entire PLA. From another report, it is found that Hu was the captain of a new type of submarine with the rank of senior colonel.

That new type of submarine was commissioned in February 2004. The report says, “compared with old equipment, the new-type submarine contained improvements by leaps of bounds in the materials it is made of, configuration of equipment, performance of its weapons and equipment, and extent of automation.” Its another characteristic is its heavy tonnage, which make it more difficult to control.

If a U.S. submarine expert had read that piece of news, he would certainly have been aware that China began to deploy a new type of submarine on or before February 2004. Judging by the difficulty in controlling it due to its heavy tonnage, it must be a strategic nuclear submarine.

The following is the full text of the Wall Street Journal report:

U.S.-China Rivalry Simmers Underseas

Pentagon Concerned About Beijing’s Expanded Submarine Forces

SHANGHAI—A close midair encounter between U.S. and Chinese military planes last week reflected long-running tensions in the skies—a rivalry that is building under the waters below, as well.

The Defense Department didn’t explain the mission for the U.S. Navy P-8 aircraft—a plane designed to track submarines—that was intercepted by a Chinese J-11 fighter over the South China Sea to the east of China’s HainanIsland on Aug. 19. U.S. officials say in that encounter, and several others in recent months, Chinese fighter pilots have flown dangerously close to U.S. aircraft.

One Chinese rear admiral said the U.S. plane was likely spying on China’s nuclear submarines.

The midair intercepts come as the U.S. military has warned that Beijing is quickly expanding its submarine force, including a fleet of Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile subs.

At least two of those appear to be based at Hainan, according to foreign defense experts who point to a recently expanded sub base there that features an undersea entrance.

The Pentagon has said it expects the Chinese navy to use the Jin-class to begin China’s first sea patrols with fully armed nuclear weapons at some point this year.

“The U.S. wants to know exactly what’s going on in Hainan,” said Chen Qi, an expert on Sino-U.S. relations at Beijing’s Carnegie-TsinghuaCenter. “China does not want the U.S. to know.”

Both the U.S. and China are trying to reduce the likelihood that chance encounters between the militaries could lead to accidents.

The Chinese defense ministry said Tuesday that it sent a delegation to the U.S. to take part in meetings this week to discuss military rules at sea and in the air.

Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon’s press secretary, said the U.S. would continue to increase cooperation and dialogue with Beijing, but said last week’s intercept “did nothing to help that along.”

The U.S. patrols and China’s intercepts are likely to continue, some analysts said, given the stakes. The U.S. military is concerned about what it says is China’s growing investment in submarines as part of a broad modernization program that already includes an aircraft carrier and an expanding fleet of navy ships.

Like few other systems in the military arsenal, submarines add stealth to military power and allow it to be projected virtually anywhere. China sees the force as vital to its aspirations to be a superpower.

The recently commissioned P-8 is the Navy’s most advanced sub-hunter, notable for its relative speed and long-range surveillance capabilities. Since December, the U.S. has sent six P-8s to bases in southern Japan to boost its anti-submarine forces.

China’s plan is to augment its submarine fleet of around 60, many acquired from Russia over the past 25 years, the U.S. military says.

“China’s advance in submarine capabilities is significant,” Adm. Samuel J. Locklear, commander of the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Command, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee in March. “They possess a large and increasingly capable submarine force.”

The Defense Department points in particular to submarines equipped to carry a new ballistic missile with an estimated range of more than 4,000 nautical miles. That would leave much of North America in range, depending on where in the Pacific the subs are.

“This will give China its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent, probably before the end of 2014,” Adm. Locklear told the Senate committee.

According to the Defense Department’s latest annual report to Congress, China operates three such Jin-class Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and up to five may enter service before it unveils a next-generation type over the next decade. “Make no mistake, the nuclear ballistic missile submarine is the most dangerous weapon on Earth,” John Keller, editor of Military & Aerospace Electronics, wrote in a June report.

“Think of it as a stealthy, silent, and mobile collection of nuclear missile silos. They deploy quietly, submerge quickly, and remain hidden under the waves for months at a time. Tracking them is difficult and imprecise.”

Experts in China said encounters like the one last week are neither new, nor likely to stop. Ni Lexiong, a military expert at Shanghai’s University of Political Science, said the U.S. feels threatened by China’s “normal and reasonable” desire to build a modern navy.

“This is an irreconcilable contradiction,” said Mr. Ni.

The U.S. augments surveillance from aircraft with satellites, surface ships and other submarines, looking for favored routes and maneuvers, experts say.

That adds complications to a region with busy commercial shipping lanes and natural-resources exploration, as well as periodic clashes between vessels from China, Vietnam and the Philippines over disputed maritime claims.

As in last week’s intercept in the skies, submarines appear in the background of past Sino-U.S. encounters near China’s southern coast.

In March 2009, the U.S. said one of its navy ships—the Impeccable, a surveillance vessel designed specifically to drag a sonar array to detect submarines—faced harassment from five Chinese vessels as well as a low flyby from a Chinese air force plane.

The U.S. called the Chinese ships’ actions reckless, unprofessional and unlawful, while China said the Impeccable was illegally surveying within its Exclusive Economic Zone—an area extending 200 nautical miles from its coast.

The U.S. says countries are free to carry out military surveillance and mapping outside the 12-nautical mile territorial waters.

Source: Chan Kai Yee “Space Era Strategy: The Way China Beats The U.S.”

Source: Washington Street Journal “U.S.-China Rivalry Simmers Underseas”