China and Russia Dreams Supplement Each Other


Both Chinese and Russian leaders see that in spite of all the differences and historical enmity that may give rise to clash of civilizations, the two countries have similar dreams for the recovery of their past glory that are supplementing instead of conflicting each other.

Russia Dream

Russia wants its recovery as a European power as it always was in the past. That is not so unrealistic as the recovery of the Soviet Union’s status as a superpower. However, the Soviet Union, though a world superpower, had dominance mainly in developed Europe instead of Asia. In spite of Tzars’ expansion to the east and Soviet attempt to develop Russia’s vast Asian part, Russia’s Far East remains underdeveloped and Russian people are not interested in moving to the east to develop eastern Russia.

Chinese people, however, are interested in Russia’s East. That is quite natural taking into account of China’s huge population. Lots of Chinese immigrants in Russia’s east have given rise to the fear of China’s colonization of Russia’s Far East. To avoid that, Russia sets the precondition that in order to settle down in Russia a Chinese shall marry a Russian and then be naturalized. China has no objection. It explains to Russia that colonization has proved a failure. China has its own way. Lots of Chinese have moved to Southeast Asia and other parts of the world without colonizing the areas they moved into. They have merged into local communities and helped develop local economy though kept some Chinese customs. They have never tried to dominate the politics there though they may have controlled the economy there. Chinese people’s immigration is a win-win way to cooperate with local people in developing their economy.

China is happy that Russia can provide space for China’s surplus population while Russia is happy to absorb redundant Chinese people to prevent shrinking of its population and develop its underdeveloped areas its own people are unwilling to go to develop.

China Dream

China dream for great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation aims at growing strong to be able to resist foreign bullies. In Chinese history, China usually has no desire of expansion; therefore, China’s rise constitutes no threat to Russia. On the contrary, China will provide a huge market for Russia’s energy and other natural resources.

As mentioned in my previous posts, Central Asia may be an area of conflicts between China and Russia, but it is not. China has made clear it only wants to joint force with Central Asian countries in developing their infrastructures for connection to Europe and the Middle East through them and obtaining oil, gas and other natural resources from them. China seeks economical benefit and utterly has no intention to interfere with the politics there. Russia will thus be able to work for the recovery of political control of those former members of the Soviet Union without Chinese interference. It, however, has been benefited by China’s economic development there.

So are China’s ties with India and Vietnam. They are economic instead of political. India’s border and Vietnam’s South China Sea disputes with China also prove that.

China’s sincerity has to some extent won Russia’s trust. It has not taken advantage of Russia’s predicament caused by Western sanctions to ask for unreasonable terms in its transactions with Russia. Now the two countries have not only overcome their difficulties in concluding gas deal but have set up joint ventures to develop large airliners and helicopters.

However, the alliance between China and Russia is indeed an alliance of necessity under US threat. Will the alliance break when the threat has been removed?

Article by Chan Kai Yee


Chinese Labor, Funds, Russian Land, Best for Development of Siberia


Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (not in picture) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, September 3, 2015. REUTERS/Parker Song/Pool

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (not in picture) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, September 3, 2015. REUTERS/Parker Song/Pool

Reuters says in its report today that China supports Russian President Putin’s idea on developing Russia’s Far East and regards it as a move dovetailing with China’s “north-east rebirth” strategy.

Russia wants to develop its Far East but lacks funds and labor while Chinese labor and capital want to seek fortune there. That will be a good combination for the development of Russia’s Far East.

Japan has also been much interested but as it attaches greater importance to its alliance with the US to deal with China, it has ceased courting Russia for a share in developing Siberia since it took side with the US over the Ukraine issue.

The vast resource-rich area in Russia’s Far East has great potential of development. The Russian-Chinese partnership there seems insignificant now may be of great importance in the future. In fact, development of the area has long been overdue but due to Russia’s ideological conflict with Japan and border conflict with China, Russia has been unable to find capital and labor from the two countries for the development. Its alliance with China now will greatly facilitate the development that may bring substantial return as long as they are able to maintain such alliance.

Article by Chan Kai Yee in response to Reuters’ report.

The following is the full text of Reuters’ report:

China backs Putin’s idea of developing Russia’s Far East
VLADIVOSTOK, Russia By Katya Golubkova Sat Sep 5, 2015 5:43am EDT

Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang said on Saturday that Russia’s push to revamp its run-down Far East region coincided with Beijing’s strategy, backing President Vladimir Putin’s drive for new sources of growth.

At the Eastern Economic Forum in the Pacific Port of Vladivostok on Friday, Putin promised favorable business conditions and state support to Asian and domestic investors willing to come to Russia’s most remote land.

“The Far East development strategy coincides with China’s strategy of north-east rebirth,” Wang said. “(The) Russia-Chinese partnership will definitely bring generous fruits.”

But for Putin’s campaign to attract Asian funds to Russia, timing may be his worst enemy: the slowdown in the Chinese economy poses risks.

Putin’s turn to Asia comes at a time when relations with the West have hit their lowest since the Cold War, following Moscow’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

Russia needs money badly – sanctions and falling oil prices have hit the economy hard, with gross domestic product expected to fall 3.3 percent this year after growing 0.6 percent in 2014. China’s growth, meanwhile, is slowing and its stock market falling, forcing Beijing into rate cuts and a yuan devaluation to buttress the economy.

Ian Ivory, a partner at Golstblat BLP, said the Chinese slowdown will hardest affect emerging markets which are providers of raw materials.

“Russia is another classic example that will feel the pain, and China will be a further negative drag on the Russian economy,” Ivory said in e-mailed comments.

Andrey Kuzyayev, a former head of overseas operations at Lukoil, Russia’s No.2 oil producer, played down the worries, saying the development of the Far East was not a temporary whim, but a long-term goal for the country.

“We need to make up time we have lost,” he said. “Cycles in any economy are the norm, not deviation. There will be a slowdown but obviously there will be acceleration later.”

Chinese government’s growth target is 7 percent this year, down from 7.4 percent in 2014 and the slowest in a quarter of a century.

Wang’s address to the forum on Saturday was short and he left immediately afterwards, in the middle of the session, followed by Chinese officials, including Wang Yilin, chairman of the board at China National Petroleum Corporation.

“This was unexpected but this was okay, we managed,” said Boris Titov, chairman of the Russian part of the China-Russia Friendship Committee for Peace and Development.

“The first session was delayed and they (the Chinese delegation) had already a briefing scheduled.”

A CNPC official, who was accompanying Yilin but declined to give his name, said only: “The schedule has changed.”

(Additional reporting by Denis Dyomkin; Editing by Lidia Kelly and Alison Williams)


Chinese people, goods, construction not welcome in Africa


In SCMP Teddy Ng’s report from Beijing today entitled “The Bigger Picture on Africa”, he says, “China’s ties with Africa have been largely based on trade and investment over the past decade. China, which by early this year had poured in direct investment of US$15.3 billion, is one of the major buyers of the continent’s oil and other resources.

“The trade pattern, along with allegations of labour rights violations, led to criticism that China is merely interested in extracting mineral wealth from Africa to feed its booming economy – which doesn’t fit Beijing’s mantra that the nation’s economic rise will not pose problems for others.”

Ng then quotes Chinese African affairs specialist He Wenping’s words “China is on track to becoming a major global power, and it needs some strategic partners.” “As China’s investment in Africa continues to rise, it is inevitable the country will become more influential in the continent.”

All Ng said is true, but he fails to give the larger picture behind that.

In the first half of the 20th century, Chinese people succeeded in establish colonies in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, etc. Those overseas Chinese made a fortune there from nothing. They kept Chinese culture and remained patriotic there. When China was invaded by Japan, their donations were a major source of funds for Chinese government. When China turned red, lots of their youngsters turned red too and returned to China to study in Chinese colleges. I had some overseas Chinese schoolmates from Indonesia when I studied at Anhui University.

The most amazing was that when China began to open to the outside world, they vied with one another to invest in China. Their investment accounted for 70% of the foreign investment in the initial years of China’s reform and opening-up.

The overseas Chinese could become rich abroad without any initial capital when China was very poor and backward. Now, lots of Chinese have become rich and want to find places for investment and expansion. Like the Chinese pioneers in South East Asia in the past, they are not afraid of the freezing weather in Siberia and North Korea or the heat in Southeast Asia. Lots of Chinese have gone there and are doing successful business there. The Chinese government is supporting them. It has been making great efforts to have good relations with Russia and Central Asian countries through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and with Southeast Asian countries through Asean.

True, China needs the natural resources from Africa, but it have a much greater need for outlet of its investment and especially human resources because of the difficulties in providing jobs for its huge population.

Africa seems the best virgin land for the establishment of Chinese colonies there in the same manner as overseas Chinese did in Southeast Asia in the past.

However, China does not seem to have a prospect to succeed in colonization in Africa. The Chinese who have done business or worked in Africa are all of the opinion that Chinese people are not welcome in Africa.

As for Chinese goods, they are notorious for their poor quality in Africa as due to the low purchasing power there, China exports cheap products with very poor quality to Africa. So is Chinese construction. Chinese contractors take projects at very low prices. In order to avoid losing money, they use substandard materials and become notorious for the quality of their construction.

There are in addition conflicts of culture between Chinese and African people. Having accepted European culture, African people are law abiding and pay great attention to hygiene while Chinese people still lack sense of rule of law and good hygiene.

The Chinese government may have good relations with African countries but Chinese people will not succeed in their colonization in Africa.


Can China extend its colonization to Africa?


It seems that no Western power has succeeded in their colonization in the past and their influence in their previous colonized countries is limited now. However, Chinese people were extraordinarily successful in their colonization in South East Asia when China was very poor and weak.

 

France made great efforts and spent a lot in order to turn its colonies in Africa into parts of France but failed. It had to allow them to split from France. The French colonies (the French communities there) in those countries mostly returned to France. That was the case with almost all Western powers’ abroad. They either returned to their countries of origin or like those in the US, South Africa, etc. remained there but became separated from their countries of origin.

 

Chinese colonies in South East Asia are completely different. They and their posterity a few generations later remain Chinese. When there was a democratic revolution in China, they donated lots of funds to support it. When China was invaded by Japan, their donations were a major source of funds for Chinese government. When China turned red, lots of their youngsters turned red too and returned to China to study in Chinese colleges. I had some overseas Chinese schoolmates from Indonesia when I studied at Anhui University.

 

The most amazing was that when China began to open to the outside world, they vied with one another to invest in China. Their investment accounted for 70% of the foreign investment in the initial years of China’s reform and opening-up.

 

The investors were all successful businessmen. They certainly knew they had to make investment decisions based on business consideration instead of their patriotic enthusiasm.

 

One of my cousins made a fortune from nothing in Indonesia and then returned to China to do business after World War II. He told us that Chinese had the best business acumen in the world. He and lots of his friends became rich in South East Asia from nothing.

 

Like my cousin, those investors had business acumen. In addition, being familiar with Chinese history, they knew the historical cycles. After more than a century of poor government, good government will emerge. They made good bets and have got lots of return. At that time, we, staff in a top multinational law firm, has to do lots of persuasion to urge US companies to invest in China. Our major argument was that they had to get a footing earlier than others in China due to the great potential of the vast Chinese market.

 

Now, lots of Chinese have become rich and want to find places for investment and expansion. Like the pioneers in South East Asia in the past, they are not afraid of the freezing weather in Siberia and North Korea or the heat in Southeast Asia. Lots of Chinese are doing successful business there. The Chinese government is supporting them. It has been making great efforts to have good relations with Russia and Central Asian countries through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and with Southeast Asian countries through Asean.

 

African offers especially great opportunities as few other countries are making real efforts in that continent.

 

SCMP says in its report “China expands its African ties”, “Dozens of African countries are represented at a Beijing forum, reflecting China’s growing role in the continent as investor and security player”.

 

According to SCMP, “The Forum for China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing will see China boost its influence in the continent, with President Hu Jintao to announce new measures to strengthen co-operation in areas such as investment, finance and security, the foreign ministry said.

 

“Two documents on strengthening co-operation will be signed tomorrow, when the forum concludes.”

 

“China’s total direct investment in the continent had reached US$15.3 billion by April, up from less than US$500 million a decade ago.

 

“China, in return, receives resources from the continent to meet its rising energy needs. China’s imports from Africa, including oil and iron ore, reached US$93.2 billion last year, up 38.9 per cent year on year.”

 

“Analysts said Beijing is stepping up its political and security influence in the continent because China’s quest for resources has drawn the country into internal conflicts, with its oil installations and workers being targeted by armed groups.”

 

However, China does not seem to have a prospect to succeed in colonization in Africa. The Chinese who have done business or worked in Africa are all of the opinion that Chinese people are not welcome in Africa.

 

As for Chinese goods, they are notorious for their poor quality in Africa as due to the low purchasing power there, China exports cheap products with very poor quality to Africa. So is Chinese construction. Chinese contractors take projects at very low prices. In order to avoid losing money, they use substandard materials and become notorious for the quality of their construction.

 

There are in addition conflicts of culture between Chinese and African people. Having accepted European culture, African people are law abiding and pay great attention to hygiene while Chinese people still lack sense of rule of law and good hygiene.

 

Clinton once openly spoke against China’s colonization of Africa, but in my opinion, the Chinese government may have good relations with African countries but Chinese people will not succeed in their colonization in Africa.

SCMP.com – China expands its African ties

via SCMP.com – China expands its African ties.