Sun Tzu’s teaching: In all fighting, ingenious surprise move shall be taken to win the battle while frontal engagement is being carried out.
Such ingenious surprise moves are quite few in wars now perhaps because there are too many strategy illiterate generals now.
So is trade war.
SCMP says in its article “China and Trump’s tariffs: stop, or I’ll shoot myself too” today that as US import $505 billion from China while China imports only $130 billion from the US if the US increases tariffs on more than $130 billion imports from China, China will not be able to retaliate with tariff on equal value of imports from the US.
China’s other options to strike back such as devaluation of its currency, dump of US Treasury debt or boycott US companies will all damage China at least as much as the US. The wise writer believes if China shoots the US that way, it will shoot itself.
However, tariff itself is a weapon that shoots the enemy while shooting oneself. White House economic adviser Peter Navarro’s words “It’s clear that China does have much more to lose” shows that the US clearly knows that the US will suffer as high tariff will force American consumers to pay higher prices for lots of imports from China indispensable for them. However, if one fears loss there will be no war at all. The US wants to fight a trade war because it believes that China will suffer much more seriously that the US does.
Perhaps wise people shall assess whether the US will suffer more seriously than China does if they use any of the above three weapons of devaluation of currency, etc.
However, even if the US does suffer much more than China, I would regard China as stupid in using any weapon that hurts itself while hurting its enemy.
Therefore, the above-mentioned tit-for-tat retaliation including retaliation of tariff increase that hurts China itself while hurting its enemy is stupid.
At best, those are frontal engagement. If China has no indigenous surprise moves, I would regard Chinese leaders as strategy illiterate too.
Are there such moves? There are and quite powerful. Let’s wait and see.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on SCMP’s article, full text of which can be viewed at http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2151970/china-and-trumps-tariffs-stop-or-ill-shoot-myself-too.
By Brad Lendon, CNNUpdated 0038 GMT (0838 HKT) June 22, 2018
(CNN) — The US Navy’s newest aircraft carrier is regarded as the world’s most-advanced warship — but for how much longer?
A story published Thursday on the English website of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army said the country’s top shipbuilding company is working on an aircraft carrier with an electromagnetic catapult aircraft launch system, something featured exclusively aboard the US Navy’s most expensive carrier ever, the USS Gerald R. Ford.
Aircraft launched by electromagnetic catapults can get airborne quicker and with greater quantities of fuel and ammunition, giving them an advantage over planes launched by standard steam catapult.
For decades, US carriers have used steam catapult systems, where steam explodes into a piston attached to the plane’s landing gear, powering it off the deck. Besides the Ford, the other 10 carriers in the US fleet use steam catapults.
Currently, Chinese carriers launch planes using a use a different, less advanced system, known as the ski-jump, meaning planes rely on their own power when lifting off.
The US Navy touts the electromagnetic system as capable of launching a wider range of aircraft at a better pace and requiring less maintenance. It’s also planned for the next ships in the Ford class, the USS John F Kennedy and USS Enterprise.
China has been undergoing an extensive naval modernization and expansion program, and a carrier to equal the US ships has long been thought to be an ambition of Beijing.
The story gave new support to that. Written by the state-owned Global Times and posted on the PLA’s website, the story centers around a photo that is “believed to be the country’s first aircraft carrier equipped with an electromagnetic aircraft launch system.”
The photo in question was released by the No.701 Research Institute of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and shows China’s two current ski-jump carriers flanking a larger ship with a flat deck.
That flat deck “makes an electromagnetic aircraft launch system possible,” the story says, citing military expert Song Zhongping.
“Three catapults on board show that the new ship will be able to launch aircraft faster and more frequently than the previous carriers, and therefore will possess stronger combat capabilities,” the Global Times story goes on to say.
The story included speculation that the new carrier is already under construction in Shanghai.
The new flat-top carrier would be China’s second domestically built carrier and its third carrier in total, following the acquisition and refit of a former Ukrainian vessel.
Last month, its first homegrown carrier, a 50,000-ton ship temporarily named Type 001A, began its first sea trials. The PLA’s website reported Wednesday that those trials were successfully completed this week. The Type 001A is expected to officially join the PLA Navy’s fleet sometime before 2020.
But experts said while the Type 001A will dramatically boost China’s military power in the Asia region, its technology was still outdated and lagged far behind the American fleet.
“This is, in and of itself, not designed to be some frontal challenge to US power in the Asia Pacific, because it simply isn’t in the class of America’s aircraft carriers,” Sam Roggeveen, senior fellow at Sydney’s Lowy Institute, told CNN in May.
China’s first carrier, the Liaoning, a retrofitted Soviet-era vessel bought from the Ukraine, was hailed as the fulfillment of a “70-year dream” of the Chinese nation when it launched to much celebration in 2012.
CNN’s Serenitie Wang and Ben Westcott contributed to this report.
Source: CNN “Will China have aircraft carrier that can match US Navy’s?”
Note: This is CNN’s report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
The US is now fighting trade wars with not only China but almost all other world economies with significant scale.
It seems that the US is conducting lose-lose trade wars everywhere. The US is increasing tariffs to reduce others’ exports so that others will do the same to reduce US exports. In such trade wars, both sides will suffer. We certainly will be worse off but we shall not be sad because our sadness cannot change the sad world situation. Sadness, however, is bad for our health and makes us miserable.
I myself am able to remain happy as I always find something funny in the bad news and thus be entertained by the news. I hope my readers will also be happy to enjoy the funny sides of bad news.
For example, Reuters’ report yesterday “Xi says China must lead way in reform of global governance”. The title itself is very funny. China leads way in reform? Does Xi mean that China shall be world leader? Is China strong and rich enough to be world leader?
Certainly, China knows it is not strong or rich enough to have the influence to be world leader.
How do you know that? I know that from the word “must”. It means that China, though not strong and rich enough to be world leader, but as the US has given up world leadership and global governance is now in chaos due to the various confrontations initiated by the US, China “must” manage to take the leading role in the world. The word “must” tells us how sad world situation is.
China has to strive to lead the way in reform of global governance due to the sad situation. That was why Xi said that it is necessary for the protection of China’s sovereignty, security and development interests according to Reuters report.
Xi is wise to know China’s sovereignty, security and development interests will be harmed if the world is in chaos due to poor global governance. That is why he puts forth the idea of the community of common destiny. The poor global governance caused by US withdraw from world efforts to stop global warming alone will cause disasters on a global scale.
It is also funny that journalists and analysts in well-know world media fear that China has the ambition to enhance its influence in the world. They are so anxious to maintain US world hegemony.
What’s good in US world hegemony? To have trade wars all over the world?
What’s bad in China’s influence? Win-win cooperation to benefit both China and its partners?
Reuters tries to make readers believe Chinese company paid a lot for equity in Sri Lanka government controlled companies for Sri Lanka to repay its debts owed to China. It simply ignores the fact that Sri Lanka said the funds were received by its treasury.
China paid a lot for the operation of a port company that loses money now. Why? It has the vision that the port will make Sri Lanka prosper in the future so that Sri Lanka will be good market for Chinese goods. China will transfer its industries to Sri Lanka and other countries in Silk Road economic belt to export goods to itself and developed countries including the US as Xi foresee China cannot maintain its trade surplus with the developed countries forever.
To pay for the imports from those countries, China has to develop technology-intensive industries for exports to those countries. That is one of the major aims of China’s Made in China 2025 plan.
You may be upset by lots of reports and analyses that demonize China by distorting China’s investment in Belt and Road projects as efforts to control others by excessive loans. You shall not be upset. Instead, you shall be entertained by their blindness in failing to see the truth. Perhaps, it’s not blindness. They distort the facts knowingly to earn a living.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-diplomacy/xi-says-china-must-lead-way-in-reform-of-global-governance-idUSKBN1JJ0GT.
On June 21, I reblogged Washington Free Beacon’s funny article accusing China of aggression in stealing US technology titled “China Industrial Policy Seeks to Steal ‘Crown Jewels’ of U.S. Tech”.
Some readers may find the article offensive and be upset by the article’s demonization of China but I find the article quite entertaining.
US believes that China will surpass the US in technology by 2015
Previously, I believe that it takes a long time for China to surpass the US but the article tells me that the US is in panic as China will surpass it by 2025 when it has successfully completed its plan of Made in China 2015,
China engages in large-scale open-source intelligence collection to gain access to American economic secrets according to the article.
What? Collection of secrets through open-source intelligence? You regard that as stealing of secrets?
Such sleep-talking can only be found in panicky nightmare.
Poor American politicians, you really need a war to stop China’s rise. Otherwise, you will never be able to overcome you panic.
But you cannot fight a real war as there is no chance to win. China challenged you to war first in the East China Sea crisis when CCTV carried rare footages about China’s strategic nuclear submarine for three days in a roll to warn the US that China has second-strike capabilities so that the US cannot retaliate with nuclear weapons if China had sunk a US aircraft carrier with China’s lots of DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles.
US refrained to fight saying that it would not fight for a few rocks (meaning the Diaoyu Islands (known as Senkaku in Japan)).
Second, Chinese navy chief warned the US China will fight pointing his fingers at US navy chief when saying that. At that time the US sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to force China to accept Hague arbitration reward but China was not scared. The US did not fight as China’s three airstrips had enabled China to have full control of the South China Sea.
So America’s only choice now is a trade war to stop China’s rise. Their ground for the trade war on China stealing US technology is ridiculous. Can such ridiculous ground deceive American people and make them support the war in spite of the difficulties the war may cause? Who knows?
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Washington Free Beacon’s article, full text of which was reblogged by him on June 21.
Richard D Fisher Jr, Washington DC – IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly
19 June 2018
Video footage of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inspection of a modified Type 093 (Shang-class) nuclear-powered attack submarine on 11 June shows what appears to be a canister for the submarine-launched version of China’s YJ-18 anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM).
The images, which were taken by state-owned broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) at the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) North Sea Fleet base of Qingdao, show a pale blue missile canister in the weapons compartment of the submarine visited the president.
The canister bears a close resemblance to that referred to as a YJ-18 canister by retired PLAN Rear Admiral Zhao Dengping during a university lecture given in September 2017.
According to Jane’s Weapons: Naval, the YJ-18 has been specifically designed to engage targets of destroyer size and bears a close resemblance to the Russian-made three-stage submarine-launched 3M-54 (SS-N-27A ‘Sizzler’) missile. The canister seen on the CCTV footage also resembles that used by the Russian submarine-launched missile.
In its 2017 report titled ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China’, the US Department of Defense (DoD) states that the YJ-18 has a range of 290 n miles (537 km), and “will be fielded on Song-class (Type 039/039G), Yuan-class (Type 039A/B/C), and Shang-class (Type 093/093A/093B) submarines”.
The missile is also being fielded by the PLAN Luyang III (Type 052D) and Renhai (Type 055) classes of destroyer.
Source: Jane’s 360 “Images show possible YJ-18 ASCM in Chinese Shang-class submarine”
Note: This is Jane’s 360’s report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean that I agree or disagree with the report’ views.
US President is putting pressures on almost all rich countries including all developed European countries, Canada, Japan and South Korea for reduction of US trade deficits with them. China is the first facing a trade war with the US but I pointed out in my post “Lucky! Thucydides Trap Leads to Trade instead of Military War” yesterday, Trump’s trade war aims first of all at stopping China’s rise so as to maintain US world hegemony. It is thus typically a war caused by Thucydides Trap.
The war may spread to other countries as China’s tariff increase on US goods may hurt other countries’ companies that produce goods for export to China from the US.
Reuters says in its report “German carmakers join American farmers on front line of U.S.-China trade war” yesterday, “Daimler on Wednesday cut its 2018 profit forecast while BMW, whose Spartanburg, South Carolina plant is the largest single exporter of vehicles in the United States, said it was looking at “strategic options” because of the threatened trade war.”
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has three magic weapons, one of which is the United Front. US pressure on the above-mentioned countries provides China with the golden opportunity to form a united front in China’s trade war with the US.
The trick is to reduce the enemy and united with friends as much as possible so that China’s strength will be enhanced to the maximum while that of its enemy will be reduced to the minimum.
Chinese President Xi Jinping knows and can apply the trick well. While threatening the US with retaliation of tariff increase, he promises to carry on China’s reform to open wider to the outside world including reduction of tariffs on imports from countries other than the US.
Reuters says in its report “China’s Xi says has honored word on opening up economy” yesterday, “Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Thursday he had honored his word by taking action on steps to open up the country’s economy”.
If by so doing Xi is able to form a united front with the above-mentioned countries, the trade war will become a world war between the united front of China and those countries and the United State alone.
Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ reports, full text of which can be respectively be viewed at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-xi/chinas-xi-says-has-honored-word-on-opening-up-economy-idUSKBN1JH1CD and https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/german-carmakers-join-american-farmers-on-front-line-of-u-s-china-trade-war-idUSKBN1JH072.
Mil.huanqiu.com says in its report today that according to Hu Wenming, CSIC Chariman of the board of Directios, China’s first homegrown aircraft carrier has successfully passed all the tests in its first sea trial, which mainly focused on the reliability and stability of its dynamical system.
According to experts, the ship has been built ahead of schedule and is expected to be delivered to Chinese navy before yearend.
Source: mil.huanqiu.com “Fully completed first sea trial, homegrown aircraft carrier expected to be delivered to navy before yearend” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)