The most chilling warning for Americans from Brazil’s version of January 6

Posted: January 10, 2023 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , | 4 Comments

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Published 4:23 PM EST, Mon January 9, 2023

Image: riot

Video Ad Feedback

‘Barbaric’: Brazil’s president reacts to protesters storming government buildings

02:16 – Source: CNN

CNN

—

On the face of it, the mob storming of government buildings in Brazil in support of a defeated ex-president making false claims of electoral fraud looks like a copycat assault on democracy inspired by the US Capitol insurrection.

But for Americans, the reality of the comparison between the insurrection inspired by the 45th US president on January, 6, 2021, and the latest revolt by supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, dubbed “Trump of the Tropics,” is even more troubling. Brazil is in turmoil after hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters stormed congressional buildings, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace in the capital Brasilia. The assault came a week after the inauguration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who returned to power after a 12-year hiatus following a victory over Bolsonaro in a run-off election on October 30.

While many elements of the situation in Brazil overlap with the populist conservatism epitomized by former President Donald Trump’s inner circle in the US, it also poses the question of whether the US, under assault from its own anti-democratic movement, is beginning to resemble the political turmoil that has long raged in less stable regions of the world.

For now, there are growing questions over whether key extremists in Trump’s inner circle, like Steve Bannon, helped fan the violence in Brasilia and doubts over the Brazilian election, as part of a bid to destabilize democracies worldwide.

Bolsonaro did not explicitly provoke the gathering of protesters as Trump did, and was not in the country at the time of the riot. He did, however, adopt the Trump playbook, sowing doubt about the vote’s legitimacy, refusing to concede his election loss and profiting from disinformation spread on social media. But his behavior is not necessarily an outlier in a nation and a continent where democracy is perpetually fragile and at risk.

Brazil was a military-run dictatorship until 1985 after the crushing of an earlier attempt at democracy, and civilian self-government since then has often been rocked by corruption, fears of military takeovers and prosecutions of former presidents. The erosion of democracy and the use of violence as a political tool were a feature of much of the Western Hemisphere long before Trump latched onto them.

So, while it may look like Brazilian extremists are copying their brethren in the US, the world’s most important democracy could actually be importing the characteristics of malfunctioning and chaotic political societies abroad.

Violence had long been feared following October’s election. Bolsonaro supporters, spurred by his false claims of electoral fraud, that mirrored Trump’s own behavior after the 2020 election, clearly incited his supporters. Just as in the United States, there are elements among Brazilian legislators and in political power in the states who support Bolsonaro and his efforts to undermine democracy.

The new House majority in Washington is packed with Republican members who voted not to certify President Joe Biden’s election victory in 2020 based on false claims of ballot fraud. And the new Speaker Kevin McCarthy only finally won the job on a 15th ballot after an intervention from Trump – poignantly on the night that marked the second anniversary of Congress returning to work after the Capitol riot.

In other echoes of January 6, Bolsonaro – like his populist, nationalist political cousin Trump – is currently in Florida. Like the 45th US president, he also prepared to undermine the election in advance and refused to concede defeat after making complaints about voting machines that were rejected by judges. The closest he got was when he said he would comply with the Constitution.

So far, Brazil’s democracy, as America’s did two years ago, has held firm, and protesters have been flushed out of government buildings. But the Biden administration has been concerned from the start about the implications of Bolsonaro’s election denialism in a nation that is a political and economic fulcrum in Latin America. It warned publicly and in private, weeks before the election that then-President Bolsonaro should not sabotage democracy, clearly understanding the parallels with Trump and more broadly the dangers facing Brazilian democracy since the end of military rule in the 1980s.

Biden, who has put the threats to global democracy at the center of his foreign policy, condemned the assault on democracy and on the peaceful transfer of power in a tweet. “Brazil’s democratic institutions have our full support and the will of the Brazilian people must not be undermined,” Biden wrote. “I look forward to continuing to work with @LulaOficial,” he wrote, referring to the current president.

But the violence in Brazil came as a jolt after the last year in which democracy appeared to be making a comeback around the world, including in the United States where voters in some swing states rejected election denialism pushed by many of Trump’s political proteges in the midterm elections.

The most powerful example that Washington can send to Brazil, and other nations where political systems are under duress, is that democracy bent but didn’t break in 2021, and that those who threatened it are starting to be held to account.

But two dates, January 6 in the US and January 8 in Brazil, now stand as flashing warning signs that the health and survival of free elections anywhere cannot be taken for granted.

Note: This is CNN’s article I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the article’s views.

Interesting, Moron v. Dotard Again in 2024 Presidential Election

Posted: November 16, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , | 2 Comments

Trump proved he was a moron by launching a trade war to hurt China but hurts the US itself by worsening US inflation. He refused to lift sanctions on North Korea for deneuclearization though sanctions have been proved useless. He fails to have the confidence in China’s ability to influence North Korea and lost the precious opportunity to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, which may help him win the last presidential election that he narrowly lost.

With such losses, he should have renounced his ambition to become US president again, but perhaps, his thirst for power has won over his wisdom. According to the Hill’s report “Trump announces 2024 run for president” he announced his entry into the 2024 race for the White House yesterday.

Biden is too old to have the wisdom to administer but again perhaps, his ambition for power may have driven him to try his luck for a second term.

A moron v. dotard for president. It will be bad luck for US voters as they have no alternative candidates to choose but good luck for us bystanders to have something interesting to watch.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on The Hill’s report, full text of which can be viewed at https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3541693-trump-announces-2024-run-for-president/?

‘A very talented statesman’

Posted: January 24, 2022 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , | 2 Comments

Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is warning that the United States must not underestimate Russian President Vladimir Putin as the standoff over Ukraine escalates.

Pompeo, also a former CIA chief and possible 2024 Republican presidential candidate, said: “(Putin) is a very talented statesman. He has lots of gifts. He was a KGB agent for goodness sakes. He knows how to use power. We should respect that.” Pompeo also told Fox that the Russian leader would never have attempted to threaten another nation during the Trump administration, which he said had won Putin’s “respect.”

While it’s true that ex-President Donald Trump provided lethal arms to Kyiv and did get NATO members to invest more in their militaries, the idea that he cowed Putin into inaction requires a massive pinch of salt. Russia didn’t need to undermine NATO during the previous administration because the ex-President did it himself, frequently feuding with alliance leaders. Trump saw the bloc more as a protection racket than a bulwark of democracy, the rule of law and Western values that kept the peace in Europe for decades.

Often, Trump’s foreign policy approaches also served Russia’s goals, for instance in Syria and when he trashed US intelligence agency assessments that Moscow intervened in the US election in 2016 to help him while standing side-by-side with Putin in Helsinki. And of course, Trump was impeached for interfering in Ukrainian politics in a gross abuse of power in a bid to damage Joe Biden in what was a distinctly Putinesque maneuver. In effect, Trump, because of his hero worship of Putin, helped the Russian leader cover up an attack on America’s sovereignty and democracy.

Pompeo’s comments were an indication of the hyper-politicization of the standoff with Russia in the United States. On the face of it, the clash is a classic great power confrontation between East and West. But it’s becoming clear that the current US President’s approach is being driven by politics as well as he struggles to stabilize a presidency that is taking on water. Under attack by Republicans for being out of touch and weak, Biden cannot afford to cede to Putin’s demands for political reasons as well as strategic ones. He’s already been accused of appeasement.

Repeated US warnings from the US that Russia is on the brink of an invasion — Biden said last week he thinks it will happen — could be on the level. But a cynic might argue that they are also designed to prepare the US public and make clear the White House was not caught by surprise. And of course, if Putin finds a way to engineer a face-saving exit for himself from the crisis that stops short of an invasion, Biden can say it was his tough talk that forced the “very talented statesman” to back down.

CNN’s Meanwhile in America <meanwhile@newsletters.cnn.com>

Note: This is CNN’s Meanwhile in America article I post here for readers’ information, it does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the article’s views.

Retired US army generals warn of insurrection or civil war in 2024 if rogue military units pledge loyalty to a ‘Trumpian’ loser

Posted: December 20, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | 10 Comments

Alia Shoaib 12 hours ago

Capitol attack

Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as people try to storm the Capitol on January 6, 2021 in Washington. Brent Stirton/Getty Images

Three retired army generals penned an op-ed in The Washington Post about the risks of another insurrection in 2024.

They highlighted that 1 in 10 of those charged in relation to the Capitol riot had a service record.

They warned that if ‘rogue units’ pledged loyalty to the loser of the 2024 election, it could cause a civil war.

Thanks for signing up!

Three retired US army generals warned of an insurrection or even civil war if the results of the 2024 presidential election were not accepted by some in the military.

Former Major Gen. Paul Eaton, former Major Gen. Antonio Taguba, and former Brig. Gen. Steven Anderson made the warnings in an op-ed in The Washington Post on Friday.

They wrote that they were “increasingly concerned” about the 2024 election and the “potential for lethal chaos inside our military.”

The generals highlighted the “disturbing number” of veterans and active-duty members of the military that took part in the January 6 attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters – more than 1 in 10 of those charged had a service record.

They outlined a possible situation in which, after the 2024 election, some service members might pledge loyalty to a “Trumpian loser” who refuses to concede defeat and tries to lead a shadow government.

“Under such a scenario, it is not outlandish to say a military breakdown could lead to civil war,” they wrote.

FOR YOU

POLITICS

Anxiety clouded a DNC gathering this weekend in South Carolina where Jaime Harrison quoted Beyoncé and another party leader said the ‘time for hand-wringing is over’

Since the last election, the generals warned that even more turmoil and division had emerged in the armed forces.

They pointed to recent resistance within the military towards federal vaccine mandates, such as a refusal to comply led by the commander of the Oklahoma National Guard, Brig. Gen. Thomas Mancino.

Mancino claimed that while the Oklahoma Guard is not federally mobilized, their commander in chief is the Republican governor of the state and not the president.

The generals wrote that they fear if 2024 is a contested election that splits loyalties, there is the “potential for a total breakdown of the chain of command along partisan lines.”

“The idea of rogue units organizing among themselves to support the ‘rightful’ commander in chief cannot be dismissed,” they said.

The generals urged that everything must be done to prevent another insurrection, including holding leaders who inspired the last one to be held to account.

They said there was also work to be done by the military, such as reviewing how to deal with illegal orders and undertaking intelligence work to identify and remove potential mutineers.

The military should also work to identify how misinformation spreads in the ranks.

The generals also suggested that the Defense Department “war-game” possible post-election scenarios to identify weak spots and put in place “safeguards.”

Source: Business Insider “Retired US army generals warn of insurrection or civil war in 2024 if rogue military units pledge loyalty to a ‘Trumpian’ loser”

Note: This is Business Insider’s article I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the article’s views.

Personality Cult of Trump in the US

Posted: December 14, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , | 5 Comments

CNN’s Meanwhile in America article “If you want to be a Republican leader … ‘” today tells us how former President Donald Trump is worshiped by American voters in Repulbican Party. Any Republican who wants to win election must has Trump’s support.

That is the personality cult only in one of the two US major parties. Still, it is personalit cult, with which there is no liberal democracy in a country.

Personality cult of Hitler was at first only in his minority party, but it soon became national when his party became the ruling party. If one probes deeper, one may find something similar to Republicans’ personality cult of Trump. There has long been some seeds of Fascism in the US, most obvious of which is racism.

US liberal democracy? Forget that.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on CNN’s Meanwhile in America article, full text of which can be viewed at CNN website.

American Cannot Be Back if Republicans Back in Power

Posted: June 15, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Foreign Affairs article “America Is Back—but for How Long?” on June 14, 2021 worries that due to polarization in US politics if current Democratic President Joe Biden is succeeded by a Republican like Donald Trump, there will be an end to Biden’s “America Is Back”.

Therefore, the unity of the West in current G7 summit is but one in appearance. EU certainly has to keep on its great efforts to make preparations for a world where America is not back!

China seems to be making better preparations whether America is back or not. It’s Belt and Route initiative will enable it to move lots of its enterprises for export to the US away from China to Silk Road economic belt. In addition it has long been making great efforts and providing huge subsidies for development of its own advanced technology.

EU certainly knows if Trump comes beck or someone like him comes to power, it will be the next target of US trade and tech war.

If unfortunately America is not back and EU is not prepared while China has been prepared through its Belt and Road initiative, China will look on with a smile the trade and tech war between the US and EU.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Foreign Affairs’ article, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-06-14/america-back-how-long?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=America%20Is%20Back—but%20for%20How%20Long?&utm_content=20210614&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017

‘Whether or not democracy will long endure’

Posted: June 2, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | 3 Comments

Stephen Collinson and Caitlin Hu June 2, 2021

———-

Joe Biden had a stark message in his Memorial Day address — a speech that presidents normally use largely to honor the sacrifice of America’s war dead.

“Democracy itself is in peril, here at home and around the world,” Biden said, standing close by the endless ranks of graves at Arlington National Cemetery. “What we do now — what we do now — how we honor the memory of the fallen, will determine whether or not democracy will long endure.”

As Biden himself often says, “This is not hyperbole, folks.” Events in recent days have underscored the once-unthinkable notion that democracy is in trouble in America: Republican senators blocked an independent, bipartisan investigation into a violent insurrection incited by a former President. In Texas over the weekend, Democrats walked out of the state House of Representatives as Republicans tried to pass a bill that would make voting harder, especially for Black Americans. State Republicans plan to ram the measure through anyway. Also over the weekend, ex-President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn — a former intelligence chief and retired lieutenant general — seemed to muse that what America really needs is a military coup like the one in Myanmar.

Changing demographics and a rising generation of diverse, socially liberal and secular Americans are challenging a White, conservative, religious bloc that saw a savior in Trump. Instead of adapting their appeal to those Americans, conservatives trying to keep political power out of their hands.

Democrats are trying to push bills through the US Senate that would expand early and mail-in voting, restore protections for Black voters, establish national standards for elections and make it easier to vote. But Republicans wield the power of the filibuster — which requires 60 votes in the 100-seat Senate to pass major legislation —and will almost certainly be able to block the legislation.

As Biden said on Sunday: What is ahead is “the struggle for the soul of America itself.”

Source: CNN “’Whether or not democracy will long endure’”

Note: This is CNN’s report I post here for readers’ information. It does not mean whether I agree or disagree with the report’s views.

Russia-China-Iran Iron Triangle

Posted: March 28, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Russia-China-Iran Iron Triangle

US-Japan-South Korea Iron Triangle

When former US President Obama began his pivot to Asia to contain the rise of China, he attempted to set up a US-Japan-South Korea iron triangle to contain China. Compared with his successors Trump and Biden’s Indo-Pacific Quad grouping, it is indeed a much stronger alliance. Both Japan and South Korea have strong economies and are US allies. However, South Korea and Japan were not on good terms due to the history of Japan’s colonization of Korea for five decades until Japan’s surrender at the end of World War II. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine that commemorate some war criminals in invading and ruling Korea seriously upset South Korea.

The triangle broke before it was really established.

Russia-China-India Triangle

The idea of Russia-China-India grouping (RIC) was first raised by Russia former President Yeltsin’s second foreign minister, Yevgeny Primakov in his visit to India in 1998. At that time Russia needed RIC to balance US Power and wanted RIC to be the political nucleus of BRICS. Due to historical enmity and conflicts of interest with China, Russia wanted India to balance China and as link to the US as India had been trying to improve its relations with the US.

However, India did not want to be Russia’s ally but adopted an equal-distance diplomacy in order to be benefited from both Russia and China, and the West especially the US. China knows it is impossible to really be close to India if its border disputes with India have not be resolved. It has tried hard for decades to resolve the issue and was able for a time to make the border troops of the two countries friendly.

When Putin came to power, he has tried hard to establish the Russia-China-India triangle through quite a few summits of the leaders of the three countries but still without success.

In June 2020, in order to please the US, India sent troops across the Line of Actual Control to fight Chinese troops and thus created tensions in the border between China and India. It even joined US-led Quad later in March 2021. By so doing, it has made the Russia-China-India triangle entirely impossible.

China-Russia-Iran Iron Triangle

US former President Obama tried to improve US-Iran relations without much success. Anyway it joined Russia and other nations to reach an agreement with Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. If Obama’s successor had followed up US policies to improve relations with Iran, there might have been less hostility between the two countries.

The agreement improved stability in the region and lifted sanctions on Iran that crippled Iran’s economy. Obama’s successor Donald Trump, however, unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and imposed sanctions on Iran again. He banned Iran’s export of oil, the major source of Iran’s income and made things very difficult for Iran. Iran could not but turned to US major strategic competitors Russia and China for help. By late 2020 China had become Iran’s major source of financial, technological and military assistance.

The US has tried to use sanctions to block Iran’s export of oil and gas but China needs more than all Iran’s oil and gas so that it had greatly increased its purchase of Iran’s oil. In order to obtain more oil and gas from Iran, China has allocated about $400 billion for investment in upgrading Iran’s oil, gas, and petrochemical industries and improving Iran’s overland transportation.”

In fact, there is a pipeline connecting Iran with Pakistan, which is now being expanded to China’s west for safe low-cost overland transportation of oil and gas to China through pipelines. China has invested in Iran’s world largest natural gas field to help Iran extract natural gas and export it to China through pipelines. China needs lots of natural gas as clean fuel for its households in order to reduce air pollution.

Moreover, US sanctions have forced Iran to receive Chinese currency yuan for its exports of oil and gas to China. That helps internationalization of yuan and increases Iran’s imports from China. It will also increase Russia’s imports from China as Iran will use yuan it has earned from China to buy Russian goods, especially Russian weapons. Russia will certainly spend the yuan it earns from Iran to buy Chinese goods.

That has not only economical but also political significance. In his recent visit to China, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov suggested to China the use of non-US currency as a way to resist US sanctions.

Russia historically has much influence in the Middle East but the US has tried hard to drive Russia away. Russia has made great efforts to maintain its influence in Syria and Iran is helping Russia doing so. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has already been cooperating with Russian troops and auxiliaries in Syria.

While the US has deployed an aircraft carrier battle group near Iran to threaten it, Russia is offering its advanced weapons to Iran to help it strengthen its defense and China is helping Iran expand its Jask Port and Chabahar’s airport for control of the Strait of Hormuz and build a regional eavesdropping post to intercept signals within a range of around 3,000 miles.

Trump’s pressures on Iran facilitated the establishment and strengthening of the Russia-China-Iran iron triangle, a strong alliance against US influence in Asia.

Biden Unable to Break the Iron Triangle

Now, US new president Joe Biden wants to continue Obama’s efforts to improve relations with Iran but he is slow in doing so. He has sought to revive talks with Iran on the nuclear agreement abandoned in 2018 by his predecessor, Donald Trump in 2018. Tehran wants the sanctions that Trump imposed removed before any negotiations resumes.

China grabs the opportunity to conclude a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran before revival of US-Iran talks on restoration of the agreement. Obviously, the 25-year term means a lot in contrast to US withdrawal from the agreement within 2 years.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said ahead of the televised signing ceremony meaningfully, “Our relations with Iran will not be affected by the current situation, but will be permanent and strategic… Iran decides independently on its relations with other countries and is not like some countries that change their position with one phone call.”

The timing of the conclusion of cooperation agreement is very good before improvement of US-Iran relations and to a great extent make the improvement not significant as the agreement will make almost all US sanctions ineffective.

China really knows to choose the best timing of its diplomacy. It established RCEP and concluded trade deal with EU precisely before US new president Joe Biden had time to provide better alternatives to interfere with the establishment and deal.

The Iron Triangle Contributes to Driving US Hegemony Away from Asia

When China has upgraded Iran’s gas and oil production, Iran may supply oil and gas to India through a pipeline in Pakistan. In building the pipelines, Iran and Pakistan planned to extend them to India to provide India with oil and gas but due to hostility between India and Pakistan, India would not use any pipelines through Pakistan but prefers a sea route to Iranian port of Chabahar that India has been upgrading since 2015. Due to India’s attempt to ally with Iran’s enemy the US, Iran canceled its cooperation with India in building railway from Chabahar port to Afghanistan and thus put an end to India’s dream for connection with Central Asia through Chabahar port it has been upgrading.

If Iran’s supply of oil and gas has greatly increased, Russia can divert part or all its supply of oil and gas for China to South Korea through North Korea if China has eased the tensions between North Korea and South Korea and Japan. As a result Japan will get Russian oil and gas from a port in South Korea. That will greatly reduce the shipping costs for getting oil and gas from the Middle East. Japan and South Korea may use Russia’s coast facilities for shipping shortcut to Europe through the Arctic. Such economic links will facilitate integration of Asia. As a result, US economic influence in Asia will be much reduced. The US will not remain a hegemon in Asia.

Article by Chan Kai Yee

Possibility of Trump Leveraging Russia against China

Posted: March 22, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

However, we have not studied another possibility: Could US president Trump leverage Russia against China?

In fact, before Obama began his pivot to Asia to contain China, the US has been quite successful in containing Russia with Chinese assistance. China supported the UN Security Council resolutions initiated by the West to contain Russia in the Middle East. It even suffered great losses in supporting the US in conducting regime change unfavorable to Russia in Libya.

However, when China continued to rise in spite of all the doomsday predictions of Western China analysts, the United States began to fear that its world hegemony might be replaced by China. That might become a reality if China’s growth rate, though had slowed down, remain much higher than the US. As mentioned above former US Obama administration began its pivot to Asia to contain China. Militarily, it planed to increase its military deployment from 50% to 60% in Asia. Economically, Obama had made great efforts to set up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). What upset China most was US commencement to interfere with China’s disputes with its neighbors over the South China Sea. China regards its rights and interests in the South China Sea as its core interests so that it responded strongly.

As described in my previous posts, China was not strong enough to resist US containment alone. It has to unite with Russia to resist the US. China greatly pleased Russia by joining Russia’s veto of UN resolution initiated by the US aimed at bringing about regime change in pro-Russia Syria.

China’s great efforts to ally with Russia were but its diplomacy to subdue the US. As the West led by the US had been containing Russia with great political and military pressure, Russia welcomed China’s efforts to ally with it. Due to the historical enmity and conflicts of interests between China and Russia described in my previous posts, their alliance could be regarded as a marriage of convenience.

People’s marriage is mostly broken due to the affair with a third party. An affair between the US and Russia would have been a wise strategy to subdue China with diplomacy.

US Strategy Illiteracy

I have mentioned times and again US strategy illiteracy. Henry Kissinger has the wisdom that the US has to have better relations with China and the Soviet Union (Russia now) than the relations between China and the Soviet Union. He succeeded in establishing relations with China to scare the Soviet Union and make the latter seek détente with the US.

On the contrary, as described above former US president Obama pushed China and Russia into each others’ arms by his efforts to contain both countries. As a result, when President Donald Trump succeeded Obama, through Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s joint efforts, Russia and China have overcome their historical enmity and conflicts of interests and become quite close allies.

However, not all American people are strategy illiterates. Trump seems to know the need to break Russia-China alliance by improving US relations with Russia. Perhaps, he knows the importance of leveraging Russia against rising China. In his election campaign, Trump often praised Russian President Putin while attacking China. It gave people the impression that Trump would improve US relations with Russia when he had won the election and become US president. But due to previous Cold War there has been inveterate hostility between the US and Russia; therefore, that idea is quite unpopular among lots of American people. For example Trump’s former defense secretary James Mattis regards Russia as the biggest threat.

Trump is certainly not so stupid as to regard Russia as a friend instead of an enemy. He only wanted to drive a wedge between Russia and China to isolate China. That will be the reverse of Henry Kissinger’s move in improving US relations with China to counter the Soviet Union. Now Trump wants to improve US relations with Russia to counter China.

It is perhaps a wise move to contain China, but is it possible for Trump to do so, given US domestic disgust of Russian President Putin? Can Trump overcome fierce opposition from US politicians and media, especially the opposition from his own Republican Party?

Given the traditional enmity between the two giant neighbors Russia and China, it would have been possible for the US to leverage Russia against China if Obama had not committed the mistake of containing them both simultaneously and thus turned them into allies instead of enemies. When Trump tried to improve US-Russian relations, Russia-China alliance seems to have been well-established.

However, there are the historical enmity and conflicts of interests between Russia and China Trump may exploit. In addition China’s Belt and Road initiative has given rise to new conflicts of interests between the two for Trump to exploit.

Article by Chan Kai Yee

Russia-China Conflicts of Interests due to BRI

Posted: March 22, 2021 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia

As mentioned in my previous posts Central Asian countries were previously parts of the Soviet Union under Russia dominance. Now, Russia wants to establish the Eurasia Union to keep them as its satellite states or at least in Russia’s sphere of influence. China has convinced Russia that in building infrastructures in Central Asia it pursues only economic benefit with no geopolitical intention. However China’s Belt and Road initiative is regarded by various analysts as a political scheme for world leadership. If so, the Belt and Road initiative in Central Asia may very likely result in replacing Russia’ influence with China’s. It is, therefore, very difficult for China to convince Russia that the projects being parts of China’s Belt and Road initiative are but economic with no political effect. In fact, it is impossible to separate economics from politics.

Due to the conflict of interests, little progress has been made in finding a way to accommodate Belt and Road with Russia’s Eurasia Union though China and Russia has had an agreement on that.

US Quad Pushes Russia Further into China’s Embrace

Fortunately, the US comes to their assistance. Trump has replaced Obama’s pivot to Asia with Indo-Pacific Quad of the US, India, Japan and Australia with the obvious intention to contain China. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made that very clear in his speech at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies on October 18, 2017.

India though a key part of quad has long been Russia’s friend and major market of weapon export. To win over India and make it the major player in controlling the Indian Ocean to threaten China’s trade lifelines through the ocean, the US has promised India that it will help India develop aircraft carriers with better US technology and supply India with US carrier-based fighter jets.

However, before US restoration of Quad, Russia is India’s major weapon provider and has been helping India develop its aircraft carriers. It has developed and made 45 Mig-29K worth $2.2 billion specially for India’s new aircraft carrier. Russia will suffer serious losses if India refuse to buy the Mig-29Ks. Obviously, India’s participation in US Quad will cause Russia to lose its major weapon market to the US. As a result, the US has pushed Russia even closer to China and thus facilitated removal of the potential obstacles to Belt and Road in Central Asia.

Moreover, China’s major BRI project in India’s enemy Pakistan upsets India while BRI is not accepted by Vietnam too due to China’s disputes with Vietnam over the South China Sea. China is not able to spread its BRI in those two countries of Russian influence. After all Central Asia is not an important area in Asia and China’s BRI there has not caused much reduction in Russia’s influence there, but the rail and Arctic links between China and Europe will bring Russia much greater benefits. Therefore, BRI in Asia is not a problem for Russia.

BRI in Europe May Affect Russia’s Interests there

China, however, is extending BRI to central and eastern Europe, where there are previous members and satellite states of former Soviet Union. As mentioned in my previous posts, Russia has long been a European country so that those former members and satellites states are much more important to Russia. It is especially so as EU has been trying hard to win over them as EU members or areas of influence.

Russia has been striving to win back those countries. Its conflict with the West over Ukraine is a typical example. China’s BRI there may further complicate the situation, which the US may exploit to break the alliance between Russia and China.

Article by Chan Kai Yee

← Older Entries